We expect total TV ad revenues to decline 3.3% in H1 2019, partly due to a return to Earth following the idyllic conditions of the World Cup in June 2018

Bad omens for advertising for H2 include the sagging economy since April and the Government’s impetus to achieve Brexit on 31 October, with or without a deal

Our forecast remains a 3% decline for total TV ad revenues for 2019 as a whole, with the risk of a more serious downturn in 2020 in the wake of Brexit

Contents

TV advertising: state of play

• A weak H1 2019
• A weak H2 2019

UK political divide widens

List of charts/tables

Figure 1. Broadcast TV advertising revenues, 2014-19 (£m)

Figure 2. Commercial impacts, January-May 2019 (% change YoY)

Figure 3. Total TV market estimates H1 2019 (% change YoY)

Figure 4. UK TV spots & BVOD and retail sales value, YoY % change by quarter

Figure 5. Month-on-month GDP growth, February to April 2019