• Beyond the short-term impact of the COVID crisis, the value of football rights in Europe is heading down
• Lower competitive intensity in the broadcasting market is the main reason, and looks unlikely to be reversed
• The leagues must consider long-term initiatives to broaden demand—cash fixes risk worsening their structural problems

Contents

Summary

2020, annus horribilis

UK: The cordial duopoly

Germany: Sky reallocates resources

Italy: Sky following the German path

Spain: No alternative to Telefónica

France: Apocalypse now

No space for new entrants

The revolving door of unprofitable new entrants

Resilience of the generalist model of pay-TV

Retail prices inflation points to a ceiling

Football rights are still very expensive

Higher competitiveness makes the US different

The US is different: rights are still rising

Tech giants will not rescue football

Should leagues go direct to consumers?

Private Equity: short-term cash or long-term governance?

Outlook

List of charts/tables

Broadcasting rights* from top five markets, €m per season

  UK: Broadcasting rights value (£m per year)

Germany: broadcasting rights (€m per year)

Italy: broadcasting rights (€m per year)

Spain: broadcasting rights (€m per year)

UK: Sky Sports price rises faster than retail prices (2000 = 100)*

UK: supply cost per subscriber per month (£)

Football rights costs per subscriber per month (€)

Top 100 US network TV broadcasts by number of viewers

Major League Baseball licensing deals

ESPN affiliate fees vs viewership (2019 vs 2010)

Premier League UK rights value vs digital giants’ UK video revenues (2019, £m)

NBA app homepage

mlb.tv homepage