Executive Summary

This report analyses the wholesale telecommunications markets in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) for the period FY25 to FY30. The market has shifted from a regulation-driven landscape to one driven by capital efficiency, resulting in widespread structural separation of infrastructure assets. Following a period of major asset divestitures (towers, fibre), the region has entered a “new normal” where organic growth dominates, spurred by cost-of-living pressures driving demand for cheaper retail services.

Market Drivers and Trends

• Structural Separation: ANZ markets are almost unique globally for having 100% structurally separated consumer fixed wholesale markets dominated by NBN Co (Australia) and Chorus/UFB providers (New Zealand).
• Asset Monetisation: Telcos have unbundled infrastructure to expose assets with different risk profiles, notably spinning off tower assets to realise higher valuations. This has created new wholesale markets.
• Economic Tailwinds: Pressure on household budgets is fueling growth in the Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) and NBN resale markets as consumers seek value.

Australia Forecast (FY25–FY30)

The Australian contestable wholesale market is forecast to grow at a 4.0% CAGR, driven by a mix of mobile services and fixed services revenue improvements.

• Voice: Wholesale legacy voice is collapsing, effectively vanishing by FY30, while IP voice will grow .
• Data and internet: Price pressures are easing and volumes continue to grow. We now expect extended growth over FY25/30.
• Mobile (MVNO): This sector is the primary growth engine, expected to expand rapidly.
• NBN & Fibre: NBN Co revenue will grow, reaching A$6.77 billion by FY30. Alternative fibre providers (e.g., Uniti) are growing faster from a smaller base.
• Passive Assets: Tower revenue will rise steadily due to inflation-linked pricing and network expansion. Other passive revenue (mainly NBN payments to Telstra for ducts) remains significant, and will grow at 5.5% CAGR.

New Zealand Forecast (FY25–FY30)

New Zealand’s contestable wholesale market is projected to outpace Australia’s growth, rising at a 6.7% CAGR, largely due to a rapidly expanding MVNO sector.

• Voice: Similar to Australia, legacy voice is in terminal decline, while IP voice grows.
• Data & internet: Revenue will grow over FY25/30. We expect some growth in the UFB resale market, but at a lower rate than in Australia
• Mobile (MVNO): While starting from a smaller base than Australia (3% vs 14% penetration), the NZ MVNO market is forecast for explosive growth.
• UFB (Fibre): Total UFB wholesale revenue will grow,  with fibre growing fastest while copper revenue declines sharply