We look at the recent improvements in NTL performance but suggest that continued progress towards cash generation in unlikely. In our view, NTL will miss its guidance for cash flow in 2002 and 2003 by substantial amounts, making its financial position increasingly unstable. Our view is that NTL will use up its existing cash resources long before it turns cash positive. The problems are exacerbated by the large amounts of NTL’s debt that need to refinanced in 2004 and 2005.
But market comments on NTL’s liquidity position have not been as insightful as they might be. This is where the real attention should have been focused.