Peak football revenues and post-boom scenarios

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Peak football revenues and post-boom scenarios

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Peak football revenues and post-boom scenarios
Broadcast licensing revenues for football are likely to be ex-growth in the top five markets in Europe, with some limited upside from sponsorship and out-of-Europe rights
The broadcast revenue boom stoked the rise of super clubs with global fan bases, feeding player transfer valuations, and a potential downturn of the latter could magnify the impact of the revenue decline
The leagues in Italy, France and Spain are more exposed to the risks of broadcast licensing revenue decline, while the Premier League’s model looks robust


Big five leagues’ revenues at peak

  • TV rights boom is ending
  • Telcos
  • Tech companies
  • Dedicated sports broadcasters

Post-boom horizons for rights licensing

  • Going Direct-to-Consumer
  • Overseas sales
  • Sponsorship

Competitiveness vs stardom

The transfer market and financial health

The Project for a Super Champions League

Facing the coming crush

List of charts/tables

Figure 1: Top 5 European leagues, CAGR by revenue stream, 2012/13-2017/18 Figure 2: ‘Big Five’ leagues club revenue, 2017/18 (€m) Figure 3: Latest broadcasting rights cycle price inflation Figure 4: Pay-TV subscriber net adds across 2018 (000) Figure 5: Pay-TV revenues and football TV rights costs growth, 2009-2019* Figure 6: International broadcasting rights sales 2019-20 (€m) Figure 7: Americans' "favourite sport to watch" (%) Figure 8: Ratio between top and tenth club revenues Figure 9: Ratio between top and median club TV revenues, 2016-17 Figure 10: Share of teams finishing in the top two at least once, 2009-2019 Figure 11: Share of goals scored in games played by top clubs, big 5 leagues Figure 12: Share of fixtures with a 3+ goal gap, big five leagues Figure 13: Average audiences of EPL games on Sky by season (000) Figure 14: Big five leagues: 2012-19 growth Figure 15: Changes in transfer balances 2012-19 Figure 16: Top 12 UEFA clubs' P&L (€bn)*