Report Overview

Recovery at risk: European mobile in Q1 2022

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Contents

Executive summary: Recovery at risk

The five-year growth hiatus is broken

COVID impacts now annualised, some beginning to reverse

Improvements depend on specific country lockdowns

Mobility boost varied by market

Vodafone still underperforming peers

Vodafone’s convergence push continues, but begins to wane

End-of-contract notifications impact to vary by market

EU roaming charges to return for some UK customers—impacting wholesale revenues for all

Consolidation fever continues

Big Tech could enter mobile connectivity market…

…with concerning implications for the MNOs

Vodafone seeks partner for Vantage JV

Towers companies growth prospects sometimes overstated

COVID-19 creates longer-term challenges…and opportunities

5G rollout gathering momentum

Higher 2021 capex something of a temporary blip

OpenRAN: be careful what you wish for

Huawei restrictions becoming more widespread

UK: much better, more to come

France: aggressive pricing flattens growth in spite of roaming return

Germany: new laws threaten growth

Italy: boosted by MVNO shift while Iliad regains some momentum

Spain: no respite, for now

Revenue trends driven by shifts in with-handset bundles and means of distribution

Reported mobile service revenue

Consolidation and convergence timeline

Disclaimer

Figures and Tables

 Reported mobile revenue growth—top 5 European markets*

Service revenue growth by market

Service revenue growth by operator group

Timeline of COVID-related lockdowns

Year-on-year change in mobility

Change in number of flights in major markets versus 2019

Mobile service revenue growth versus peers

Contract net adds in top 4 European markets

German converged customer net adds (000)

Service revenue growth by operator

Effective daily cost of roaming passes (£)

Tech giants as MVNO/gatekeepers

Current and potential distribution systems

Vodafone forecast use of cash (€m)

Recent tower deals in Europe

Europe ‘top 5’ GDP vs service revenue growth

5G availability by country (% of time on 5G)

5G reach (0-10 score based on number of locations)

2022 capex versus 2019 and 2021 capex

Approaches to Huawei across Europe

UK Service revenue growth

UK  Contract net additions (000)

UK Service revenue growth by operator

France Service revenue growth

France Contract net additions (000)

France Service revenue growth by operator

Germany Service revenue growth

Germany Contract net additions (000)

Germany Service revenue growth by operator

Italy Service revenue growth

Italy Contract net additions (000)

Italy Service revenue growth by operator

Spain Service revenue growth

Spain Contract net additions (000)

Spain Service revenue growth by operator

IFRS 15 effect of indirect and direct mobile contract distribution

Service revenue growth in Q1 2022

European MNO consolidation timeline