Executive Summary

The current duopoly of Starlink and OneWeb in the ANZ LEOSat market will not last. A new wave of well-funded and technologically advanced competitors is poised to enter the market, alongside a landmark Australian sovereign satellite initiative.

New entrants and new offers will emerge rapidly over the next two to three years as the market matures. Amazon Kuiper’s deal with the NBN Co will make it a leading player, but not the only new entrant. These developments will intensify competition, provide more choice for customers, and further accelerate the disruption of the traditional telecommunications sector.

In particular, issues around sovereign risk (i.e. reliance on foreign firms to deliver critical infrastructure) will also see specialised offers designed to address national security concerns. This could lead to a protected “inner sanctum” for sovereign-aligned providers serving government and critical infrastructure, while a more open and fiercely competitive market exists for all other commercial and consumer services.