Executive Summary

NBN Co technology and price changes are a key catalyst for change in the fixed broadband market. NBN Co has confirmed new wholesale speed tiers and the launch of multi-gigabit speeds from September 2025, which includes upgrading the 100/20Mbps ‘Home Fast’ tier to 500/50Mbps without any corresponding price increase. Prices for fast enterprise services will fall somewhat.

The immediate impact is that over 9 million premises will become eligible for NBN’s highest residential speed tiers from September 2025, primarily those on FTTP and HFC connections. NBN Co anticipates a significant acceleration in NBN connections, hoping to win back fixed wireless customers. This would be a significant achievement, given that NBN Co’s connections growth had been relatively flat for the last two financial years.

In the background competition has intensified, especially between NBN and competing Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) services provided by mobile network operators. FWA’s appeal has grown due to its stable pricing, creating a wider price gap with rising NBN basic and standard tier costs. Telstra and TPG have shown strong customer demand for FWA, and Optus is aggressively promoting its 5G Home Internet. Alternative fibre networks like Vision and Uniti also contribute to heightened competition. NBN Co has responded with an escalating pattern of investment in fibre-to-the-premises (FTTP) and higher speed options.

As FTTP becomes ubiquitous, more attention will need to be paid to in-home CPE which will emerge as the prime limitation to broadband performance. This will require a higher level of coordination between industry and regulators to educate end users on better technology choices for the home.

Our view is that FWA’s value proposition is fragile in the longer run. It is vulnerable to any demand shock from Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications and related technologies like Augmented Reality (AR), which will drive demand for the low-latency, high-capacity, and symmetrical connectivity best provided by fibre. Uncertainty around future demand patterns does not change this. The core strategic question is no longer “fibre vs. FWA,” but “which infrastructure assets are best positioned to absorb an unpredictable, AI-driven demand shock?”