The recovery stutters: UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q4 2020

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The recovery stutters: UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q4 2020

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The recovery stutters: UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q4 2020


Executive summary: The recovery stutters

Market trends and outlook

Subscription volume surge continues

Revenue growth stutters, and will continue to in the short term

A degree of convergence in revenue growth across the operators

Falling ARPU for all

New customer pricing reasonably firm, and converging to high speed as standard

Backbook pricing pressure partly driven by Ofcom-mandated notifications

Price rises return in force

Full fibre regulation: The mist clears…somewhat

Full fibre and ultrafast adoption tracking: strong trends, but will stall next quarter

Q4 2020 trends: broadband net adds still strong

High speed broadband adoption continues apace

Q4 2020 trends: line rental nets add turn back positive, in spite of themselves

Q4 2020 trends: pay TV bounces back, outlook positive for 2021


Broadband subscribers

Consumer revenue

In/out-of-contract and existing/new customer pricing

Front/backbook pricing differential from Ofcom

Wholesale price control and Openreach’s new discounted pricing

Subscriber and subscriber ARPU growth

Big 4 versus smaller player broadband growth

Ofcom broadband complaints

New customer pricing outside the ‘top four’

‘Top four’ ultrafast broadband pricing for new customers

Summary of recent price rises

List of charts/tables

Market Net Additions

RGU and subscriber growth

RGU ARPU, volume and revenue growth

Subscriber ARPU, volume, and revenue growth

Average RGU growth by operator

Consumer revenue growth by operator

Subscriber ARPU growth

RGU ARPU growth

Broadband entry level pricing, new customers (£/month)

Broadband high speed pricing, new customers (£/month)

Contract status of customers by provider, September 2019

Proportion of revenue at risk if OOC customers switched to ...

Existing customer pricing changes

Ofcom’s copper and full fibre new regulation summary

Openreach full fibre adoption where available

BT Consumer ultrafast (>100Mbps) adoption where available

Broadband organic net adds (000)

Broadband organic subscriber growth

High speed net adds (000)

High speed penetration of broadband bases

Line rental net additions (000)

Line rental subscriber growth

Pay TV net additions (000)

Pay TV subscriber growth

Broadband subscribers and net adds

Consumer revenue and revenue growth

Unlimited entry level broadband, in/out-of-contract pricing

Unlimited high-speed broadband, in/out-of-contract pricing

September 2019 pricing differential figures (£/month)

November 2018 pricing differential figures (£/month)

Openreach wholesale pricing (£/month, excluding VAT)

Average subscriber growth by operator

Subscriber ARPU growth by operator

Broadband net adds (000)

Broadband subscriber growth

Broadband complaints per 100,000 customers

Unlimited broadband dual-play, new customer pricing (£/month)

Pricing outside the ‘top four’ (£/month), lowest price available

Ultrafast offers and pricing by provider, £ per month

Ultrafast broadband pricing by provider

2021 price rises

2020 price rises

2019 price rises

2018 price rises

2017 price rises