The market for traditional macro-towers in Australia is mature. All three carriers have been expanding their tower networks only incrementally in recent years, and site growth is low. 5G will not change this significantly, because 5G base stations are being mounted on existing towers, not new ones.
The Australian mobile market – declining growth potential
Price sensitive market
Fixed wireless opportunity – margin improvement not new revenue
No fourth operator
Evolution of the tower market
Macro tower networks
Tower sale scenarios – the scope for upside
Growing capacity demand shifts focus to small cells
Specific small cell challenges
Can tower companies win in small cells?
Figure 1. Total mobile revenue (MBB service +handset service + handset hardware) in A$m and mobile subscribers (MBB + Handset) [‘000]
Figure 2. Consumer churn intentions, April 2020
Figure 3. Forecast 5G takeup as share of total mobile handset and mobile broadband connections
Figure 4. Expiry dates for mobile spectrum licences (in date order)
Figure 5. Australian MNO spectrum allocations in urban areas by spectrum band, 2020