Vodafone: Leverage looms large

Report Overview

Vodafone: Leverage looms large

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Vodafone: Leverage looms large

Contents

Pressure to perform

30% IPO required

Growth could ease the pressure….but will it?

Q3 results broadly reassuring…but only a little bit

Crunch time for credit rating

A potential win-win for now

Spain a possible lever

Potential to outperform its way out of trouble?

Q3 revenues: edging up thanks to some roaming relief

A mixed bag all round

UK: flat trends are a touch disappointing

Net adds reasonable

Apples and pearscomparing service revenue trends now even harder

H3G turning down the price aggression, Vodafone on a go-slow?

Good and bad in the outlook

Germany: inching forward, still much to prove

Fixed business green shoots post integration

Mobile boosted by lockdown

Italy: little reprieve in lockdown

Spain: revenue trends stable(ish), subscribers in decline

Mobile improvement all accounted for by let-up on roaming

Fixed business retreat disappointing

Consolidation to the rescue…on two fronts?

Figures and Tables

Figure 1: % of Vantage Towers to be sold to maintain 3.0x leverage ratio under different EBITDA growth scenarios

Figure 2: Vodafone's forecasted use of cash (€m)

Figure 3: Tower valuations of deals, EV/EBITDAaL

Figure 4: Vodafone forecast Net Debt to EBITDA scenarios

Figure 5: Impact of various possible deals on net debt to EBITDA ratio

Figure 6: Headline organic EBITDA growth versus growth in Euro terms (Enders' preferred EBITDA growth measure)

Figure 7: Roaming drag on mobile service revenues in top 4 countries and Group

Figure 8: % of Vantage Towers to be sold to maintain 3.0x leverage ratio under different EBITDA growth scenarios

Figure 9: 'Organic' and Enders' preferred service revenue growth

Figure 10: Service revenue growth in Europe

Figure 11: Organic service revenue growth

Figure 12: Mobile service revenue growth in Europe

Figure 13: Vodafone fixed service revenue growth in the 'top 4' markets

Figure 14: UK operational and financial metrics

Figure 15: UK fixed performance

Figure 16: UK contract net additions (000)

Figure 17: UK mobile service revenue growth by operator

Figure 18: ‘Sweet spot’ bundle with iPhone 6s/7/8/XR/11/12

Figure 19: SIM-only pricing by data allowance (GB) ––July 2020 (£/month)

Figure 20: SIM-only pricing by data allowance (GB)—November 2020 (£/month)

Figure 21: SIM-only pricing by data allowance (GB)—February 2021 (£/month)

Figure 22: 12-month, SIM-only unlimited data bundle pricing (£/month)

Figure 23: 18-24-month, SIM-only unlimited data pricing (£/month)

Figure 24: Germany operational and financial metrics

Figure 25: Germany contract net additions (000)

Figure 26: German mobile service revenue growth by operator

Figure 27: German operator contract ARPU growth

Figure 28: Germany fixed performance

Figure 29: Italy operational and financial metrics

Figure 30: Italy fixed performance

Figure 31: Italy service revenue growth by operator

Figure 32: Italy total subscriber net additions (000)

Figure 33: Spain operational and financial metrics

Figure 34: Spain fixed performance

Figure 35: Spain service revenue growth by operator

Figure 36: Spain contract net additions (000)