- Publisher Enders Analysis.
- Publish Date February 22, 2021
- Sector Mobile and Wireless Technology, Telecom, UK, UK Telecom.
- Company

Contents
Pressure to perform
30% IPO required
Growth could ease the pressure….but will it?
Q3 results broadly reassuring…but only a little bit
Crunch time for credit rating
A potential win-win for now
Spain a possible lever
Potential to outperform its way out of trouble?
Q3 revenues: edging up thanks to some roaming relief
A mixed bag all round
UK: flat trends are a touch disappointing
Net adds reasonable
Apples and pears—comparing service revenue trends now even harder
H3G turning down the price aggression, Vodafone on a ‘go-slow’?
Good and bad in the outlook
Germany: inching forward, still much to prove
Fixed business green shoots post integration
Mobile boosted by lockdown
Italy: little reprieve in lockdown
Spain: revenue trends stable(ish), subscribers in decline
Mobile improvement all accounted for by let-up on roaming
Fixed business retreat disappointing
Consolidation to the rescue…on two fronts?
Figures and Tables
Figure 1: % of Vantage Towers to be sold to maintain 3.0x leverage ratio under different EBITDA growth scenarios
Figure 2: Vodafone's forecasted use of cash (€m)
Figure 3: Tower valuations of deals, EV/EBITDAaL
Figure 4: Vodafone forecast Net Debt to EBITDA scenarios
Figure 5: Impact of various possible deals on net debt to EBITDA ratio
Figure 6: Headline organic EBITDA growth versus growth in Euro terms (Enders' preferred EBITDA growth measure)
Figure 7: Roaming drag on mobile service revenues in top 4 countries and Group
Figure 8: % of Vantage Towers to be sold to maintain 3.0x leverage ratio under different EBITDA growth scenarios
Figure 9: 'Organic' and Enders' preferred service revenue growth
Figure 10: Service revenue growth in Europe
Figure 11: Organic service revenue growth
Figure 12: Mobile service revenue growth in Europe
Figure 13: Vodafone fixed service revenue growth in the 'top 4' markets
Figure 14: UK operational and financial metrics
Figure 15: UK fixed performance
Figure 16: UK contract net additions (000)
Figure 17: UK mobile service revenue growth by operator
Figure 18: ‘Sweet spot’ bundle with iPhone 6s/7/8/XR/11/12
Figure 19: SIM-only pricing by data allowance (GB) ––July 2020 (£/month)
Figure 20: SIM-only pricing by data allowance (GB)—November 2020 (£/month)
Figure 21: SIM-only pricing by data allowance (GB)—February 2021 (£/month)
Figure 22: 12-month, SIM-only unlimited data bundle pricing (£/month)
Figure 23: 18-24-month, SIM-only unlimited data pricing (£/month)
Figure 24: Germany operational and financial metrics
Figure 25: Germany contract net additions (000)
Figure 26: German mobile service revenue growth by operator
Figure 27: German operator contract ARPU growth
Figure 28: Germany fixed performance
Figure 29: Italy operational and financial metrics
Figure 30: Italy fixed performance
Figure 31: Italy service revenue growth by operator
Figure 32: Italy total subscriber net additions (000)
Figure 33: Spain operational and financial metrics
Figure 34: Spain fixed performance
Figure 35: Spain service revenue growth by operator
Figure 36: Spain contract net additions (000)