WMG IPO: A bet on streaming

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WMG IPO: A bet on streaming

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WMG IPO: A bet on streaming

Len Blavatnik has partly cashed in his investment in Warner Music Group (WMG). The shares issued were not new, and are non-voting, so the IPO did not raise funds for the future and will not change Blavatnik’s control of the business and its day-to-day running.

Contents

Recorded music: streaming grows in mature markets

  • Risk factors: COVID-19 headwinds and cost-creep

Music publishing: a steady income source with high COVID-19 risks

Majors and the streaming services

The future of streaming looks solid

  • Is forecast global streaming growth overstated?
  • US market leads on subscriptions

Facing monetisation hurdles in the Asian markets

  • Japanese streaming outperforms during lockdown
  • South Korean streaming dominated by local platforms
  • China climbs the streaming charts

List of charts/tables

Figure 1: Revenue growth in the three 'majors' recorded music business (index=2015)

Figure 2: Geographic spread of the 'major's' revenues, 2019 (%)

Figure 3: WMG share of Billboard Hot 100 vs Hip hop/R&B , 2015 2019 (%)

Figure 4: WMG recorded music sales mix, 2012 2019 (US $m)

Figure 5: January June year on year % value changes, UK, Japan & US

Figure 6: WMG's r ecorded music revenue and A&R costs, indexed to 2015 (%)

Figure 7: WMG music publishing s ales mix, 2012 2019 (US $m)

Figure 8: The 'najors' revenues and OIBDA margins compared, 2019 ($US m/%)

Figure 9: Real global recorded music trade revenues ($bn) vs nominal

Figure 10: Contribution to absolute global growth, ($US m)

Figure 11: US music expenditure ($US m)

Figure 12: Japan's recorded music trade revenues, 2005 19 (¥m)

Figure 13: Avex Group revenues, 2019* (¥m)

Figure 14: LINE MUSIC, RecoChoku, and AWA streaming features (left to right)

Figure 15: TME quarterly revenue, Q4 2017 to Q1 2020 (billions RMB)

Figure 16: QQ Music livestream tipping options