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  • December 9, 2016

    Auto classified marketplace: From lifestyle to driverless future

    This is the third and final report in our annual review of vertical marketplaces (classifieds), focused on used cars, and follows Vertical marketplaces overview and recruitment outlook [2016-116] and Property classified marketplace [2016-119]. Auto Trader continues to dominate online auto listings, accounting for 85% of UK revenues in 2015 by our estimates as total UK online auto spend increased 13%.  We believe that growth will slow to -7% this year and low single digits in 2017/18 as Brexit bites and consumer confidence retreats, although used and new car sales have so far remained buoyant since the vote. In common with the other classified verticals we see a period of sustained innovation on the horizon which will challenge the existing market leaders; data provision rather than audience listings will likely become the main source of value to advertisers while further out the advent of autonomous vehicles promises to disrupt the established structure of the entire auto industry.
  • December 6, 2016

    European digital news models

    Pay access now predominates in print-rooted national digital news across Europe, with meters the most popular model. Reliance on digital advertising is retreating. Best of class Continental publishers have roughly stabilised revenue, and the risk of print ad decline acceleration looms – as in the UK. Digital is still typically below 20% of revenue as online advertising CPMs decrease and newsstand buyers are reluctant to migrate to digital subscriptions – on current trends digital revenues will be insufficient to sustain a full-scale newsroom. Emerging innovations include aggregation, bundling (with broadcast, music, telecoms), and youth-skewed spin offs, but execution is uneven. Profitable native digital news sites provide templates for focused coverage at a fraction of traditional newspapers’ costs.
  • December 5, 2016

    Property classified marketplace

    This is the second of three reports in our annual review of vertical marketplaces (classifieds), focused on property, and follows Vertical marketplaces overview and recruitment classified outlook [2016-116]. Stamp duty reforms and the impact of the Brexit referendum triggered a -10% fall in UK residential property sales between April and October 2016 and the consensus among estate agents and commentators is that the property slowdown will continue into 2016/17 as buyer confidence recedes. As a result, we expect UK property classified advertising to slip into decline in 2016/17 driven by losses in print, while online advertising growth will slow to low single digitsIn the online market, while Rightmove continues to deliver outstanding financial results from its simple listings model, we believe that a new phase of innovation is imminent. Consumers are demanding enhanced services through data and personalisation, and there is clear potential for virtual/augmented reality and artificial intelligence to disrupt the market in the longer term.  
  • November 30, 2016

    UK digital ad forecast 2016-2018

    The UK digital ad market has been resilient in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, and set to reach £10 billion in annual value by early next year. Growth is likely to remain strong even in the face of a possible economic slowdown next year, thanks to continuing growth of ecommerce and online media consumption. We expect media budgets to come under pressure, and this could be to the advantage of digital, which often provides better attribution of short term return on investment; we could see a “flight to attributability”. Within digital, growth is concentrated on video, social in-feed and search advertising on mobile, while desktop display is in decline: 2016 will be the first full calendar year when digital desktop ad spend is down year-on-year in the UK. Of this growth, Google and Facebook account for close to 90%, thanks to their leading offerings in the fastest-growing categories.

  • November 28, 2016

    Vertical marketplaces overview and recruitment classified outlook

    Our annual review of vertical marketplaces (classifieds) is presented in three reports, with the first providing a summary of the key macro trends, technological developments and spending outlook for the total UK classified advertising market followed by a detailed analysis of recruitment marketing; we will look at the property and auto verticals separately in two upcoming publications. Overall, we believe that the UK classified market is poised for a period of sustained innovation as the print to digital transition matures and incumbents search for new revenue streams induced by slowing digital revenue growth and consumer and client demand coupled with increasingly applicable emerging technologies. Across the three verticals we identify voice, video, virtual and augmented reality, user-generated content; and, critically, Artificial Intelligence as potentially disruptive forces. In terms of macroeconomic drivers, we observe that the Brexit referendum has had a minimal impact thus far but believe that economic uncertainty around the terms of the UK’s departure from the EU will prove a significant dampener on revenue growth in the next two years. In recruitment, the jobs market remains in growth despite the initial shock from the referendum and the recruitment industry continues to grow its revenues, up 2% in 2016 by our estimates. However, recruitment advertising spend itself was down -1% in the first half of this year reflecting the saturation of the online market as the print to digital transition reaches its latter stages; online now accounts for 76% of recruitment spend. The pay per listings model of traditional job boards appears increasingly outdated and in the future we believe that recruitment advertising services’ main value will lie in collecting and organising job seeker data rather than charging for advertising space, a view corroborated by Microsoft’s $22.6bn acquisition of LinkedIn announced in June. Meanwhile, the online jobs aggregator Indeed continues to build its revenue share while print brands’ digital revenues fell in both 2015 and H1 2016.

  • New Zealand Advertising Market Outlook
    New Zealand Advertising Market Outlook
    October 12, 2016

    New Zealand Advertising Market Outlook

    We discuss the New Zealand Advertising Expenditure market assessing the actual and forecast revenue as well as the key drivers of these for the Digital, Broadcast Television, Print, Radio and Outdoor markets.

  • October 11, 2016

    Advertising Market Outlook: The Digital Revolution Continues

    The Australian Advertising Expenditure market outlook report discusses the actual (2006 – 2015) and forecast (2016 – 2021) advertising revenue alongside the key drivers within the Digital, Broadcast Television, Print, Radio and Outdoor markets.

  • Classifieds Marketing Outlook: All Segments
    Classifieds Marketing Outlook: All Segments
    August 26, 2016

    Classifieds Marketing Outlook: All Segments

    International opportunities and additional adjacencies have supported the growth in this market. We discuss the current and future market trends including the transition to digital, how the market is entering a new phase through digital, and the success achieved by the leading players.

  • Recruitment Marketing Outlook
    Recruitment Marketing Outlook
    July 8, 2016

    Recruitment Marketing Outlook

    Australia’s recruitment market is both large and growing; supporting the ongoing need for classified advertising. With the print to online migration almost complete, the market is poised for a new phase of innovation and development. We discuss the current and future trends of the market, the key market players and how businesses can position themselves in the ever changing digital world.

  • Consumer magazines Print still key; radical innovation emerging
    Consumer magazines Print still key; radical innovation emerging
    July 4, 2016

    Consumer magazines Print still key; radical innovation emerging

    UK consumer magazine print circulation fell -9% in 2015 while total display advertising fell -7% as magazines continue to outperform other press categories. However, the overall picture is still one of falling consumer and advertiser demand and the fierce competition for user attention and advertising spend online is reflected in consumer magazine digital display advertising growth of just 12%: about half of the total online display growth rate in 2015. At the same time publishers are starting to embrace radical innovation using their brands to produce multiple revenue streams ranging from e-commerce to events, as we explore in our four publisher case studies included in this report.

  • Property Marketing Outlook
    Property Marketing Outlook
    June 29, 2016

    Property Marketing Outlook

    Australia’s property market remains robust both in terms of house prices and building approvals. This will support ongoing growth in all overall classified and display expenditure by home sellers and real estate agents. Median house prices in metro areas (notably Sydney $780,000 and Melbourne $585,000) are on all time highs having achieved double digit growth rates in the past 12 months. Foreign investors and low relative interest rates has fueled these trends. Likewise the the loans market is very large and continues to grow, though there has a been a shift in recent times towards higher density housing (now around 49%) relative to detached homes.

  • June 8, 2016

    UK news media: less advertising, new models

    The decline in print display advertising in national newspapers accelerated to -16% in 2015, while growth in digital advertising is slowing, and will be unable to offset revenue decline for the foreseeable future. We believe this decline is structural and irreversible, continuing at a sharper pace than before despite the recovery in the UK economy in 2013-2015, and very different from the cyclical decline of 2009. Publishers must convince brands and agencies that in the mobile era their superior content environments have added value. If scale newsrooms are to survive, costs must be reduced through collaboration and outsourcing­.
  • May 18, 2016

    Novel disruption for consumer books

    Consumer book sales look unusually resilient in the context of the extreme changes in other print media sectors, newspapers and magazines, over the past decade. Ebook and ecommerce sales have offset the high street sales decline, although the declining number of retail outlets casts a long shadow over the future of discovery. New options for authors, particularly self-publishing ebooks, threaten the existing funnel of authors to publishers, but could also be a new source of talent.

  • February 26, 2016

    Trinity Mirror starts New Day

    Trinity Mirror is launching a national newspaper, New Day, into a challenging marketplace: declining volumes of -7%, and the loss of £121m (-9%) in advertising in 2015 alone. New Day has been inspired by market research into lapsed newspaper buyers. While consumer behaviour is largely driven by a shift to digital, mobile and social media distributed news, some consumers want a different print product from anything in the marketplace. In digital, New Day eschews the need for a website or App, focusing on social media to market the product; a rare example of a strategy that does not blur or compromise print and digital objectives.

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  • February 24, 2016

    A future for tablet publishing? La Presse case study

    Montreal’s La Presse follows a unique tablet-focussed, free access, fast track digital strategy. It said adieu to weekday print editions in December. An in-house developed app – La Presse+ – sets new benchmarks: advertising friendly, easy to navigate, and engaging. High ABC1 market share in French speaking Quebec helped build digital scale rapidly. La Presse+ has broken circulation records thanks to an influx of younger readers. Advertising is sold at a premium to print and the newsroom has expanded. In a tougher market The Toronto Star launched the app last September with positive initial results. The Star Touch approach is additive rather than substitutional to print and may be more relevant to newspapers elsewhere. Slower tablet penetration growth is no big worry as phone screen sizes increase and PCs converge towards tablets.

  • February 19, 2016

    Independent, i and content publishing models

    The sale of the i, the innovative 2011 launch by the Independent, inevitably led to its parent’s death in print form and pushes two media experiments into the marketplace. ESI Media becomes the first publisher to switch a traditional national news brand into a digital-only service, while Johnston Press has developed a new local-national platform to compete with Trinity Mirror. Content publishers will increasingly experiment with vertical models and membership models for a range of services including access to some content as the challenges of the digital advertising market begin to mount.
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  • February 16, 2016

    Millennials, mobile and traditional media

    Millennials are the mobile generation, and their preoccupation with mobile erodes time spent with other media, but also offers new opportunities for traditional media brands. Millennials have a different relationship with traditional media; mobile has provided them with control over what they consume and the convenience to access content where and how they like. New content forms such as very short videos have added to the mobile experience, creating social discovery opportunities for media to reach millennials.
  • December 17, 2015

    Property marketing outlook: Rightmove tightens its grip

    This is the second of our three reports in our annual review of vertical marketplaces (classifieds), focused on property, and follows Vertical marketplaces overview and recruitment outlook [2015-115]. Zoopla Property Group (ZPG) has been hit by new entrant OnTheMarket, and has diversified its publishing and revenue models. But OnTheMarket is a red herring in the marketplace, delivering the same charging model more expensively for estate agents than leading portals Rightmove and ZPG. Property marketing expenditure has been resilient this year, and we expect it to be roughly flat (a little down in real terms) over the next two to three years, largely a result of the print-to-digital transition depressing spend, but also because estate agents are feeling squeezed. Local newspaper print decline will roughly offset increases at the property portals and elsewhere, though print spend at the top of the market – brands such as Country Life, the FT and the Telegraph – remains robust, despite deep declining volumes of £1.5m homes.
  • AdEx Market Outlook – market growth underpinned by Digital
    AdEx Market Outlook – market growth underpinned by Digital
    November 23, 2015

    AdEx Market Outlook – market growth underpinned by Digital

    We expect total AdEx to grow at a 2% CAGR to A$14.9b in FY20. While below the long term growth rate (3-4% CAGR) this is above the recent trend (-1% CAGR FY12-15). We expect the continued migration of AdEx from Print to Digital with the latter showing signs of maturing while TV sees anaemic growth (but growth nonetheless).

  • November 11, 2015

    Trinity Mirror buys scale with Local World

    By fully acquiring Local World, Trinity Mirror has bought scale advantage in the local media marketplace, and accelerated a much needed growth story for digital assets. The medium term outlook for local media continues to look stormy, underlining the importance of investment in technology and new platforms for publishing, journalism and marketing, essential for longer term sustainability. Consolidation is needed to drive a more cost-effective investment phase as the transition to digital continues apace, provided the competition authorities do not interfere.
  • October 14, 2015

    BBC plans hit local press

    Non-subscribers can download this report in full - alongside all our other coverage of the BBC during the Charter Review process - from the 'BBC Charter Review' page of our site. BBC proposals for local media set out on 7 September offer solutions to an alleged market failure, without much evidence, contained in February’s Future of News report. There is no dispute that local commercial print and online media operations have suffered heavy revenue losses since their peak a decade ago – the industry is, however, still profitable, innovation and online growth are helping to stabilise the top-line, and new enterprises are emerging. Local media publishers prefer a turbo-charged BBC policy of linking to their sites to the proposal for a local media digital hub fed by publishers and 100 BBC journalists.

  • October 8, 2015

    Friends with benefits: Facebook and publishers

    We are seeing a proliferation of news distribution services on social media and technology platforms, as companies like Apple and Facebook look to capture the value of longform professional content. Facebook’s Instant articles will likely be the most significant distribution mechanism for publishers, allowing Facebook to further position itself as a provider of quality, rather than just user-generated, content. This is best seen as a trade: news providers’ engaging content for Facebook’s audience reach and data. While concerns about reliance on Facebook and content commoditisation are understandable, these are the inevitable results of user behaviour.

  • August 25, 2015

    The BBC, the press and online news

    The Government’s Green Paper on Charter Renewal asks whether BBC News is “crowding out” commercial news suppliers and, if so, whether this is justified. Our research shows that UK newspaper publishers have been damaged by the internet. They face inherent challenges in monetising online audiences, in common with other news publishers. To be blunt, the BBC plays no role in exacerbating these challenges. Scaling back BBC News will damage the UK’s sole source of impartial, quality and trusted news, whose independence is valued by users in the UK and around the world, risking the UK’s global “soft power”.

  • Consumer magazines Print still key; radical innovation emerging
    Consumer magazines Print still key; radical innovation emerging
    August 14, 2015

    UK consumer magazines: Digital future still a long way off

    In this extensive report on the UK magazine market we review demand for print magazines, the advertising marketplace and the transition to digital. We detail the major publishers’ print and digital activities and provide advertising forecasts for print and digital spend to 2018.