Market Outlook

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  • New
    April 21, 2021

    Brief reprieve from COVID turbulence: UK mobile market in Q4 2020

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    The sector rebounded slightly in the quarter to December thanks to a seasonal improvement in the roaming drag, although the partial lockdown tempered the recovery. We await imminent news on spectrum trading, and there may also be some licence fee reductions as a consequence of the lower prices in the recent 5G auction. While the sector is likely to continue to struggle into Q1, the outlook is much brighter thereafter thanks to the annualisation and even reversal of some lockdown effects, and to higher price increases from the spring.
  • New
    April 19, 2021

    Spotify Loud & Clear: 5% of artists generate above $1,000 in [...]

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    Spotify paid $5 billion in royalties last year to the music industry. Critics claim the $0.0038 per-stream average royalty rate is too low. However, this is largely due to high volumes of ad-funded listening, a core part of Spotify’s freemium model, and a defence against piracy. To silence the critics, the “Spotify Loud & Clear” site presents data on the distribution of industry royalties, which are heavily skewed to established artists. Only the top 5% of artists generate annual industry royalties above $1,000, though they take home less under their deals.
  • New
    April 19, 2021

    AVOD Market Report: A market assessment of a thriving industry

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    The AVOD market will grow due to the strong uptake of Connected TVs (CTVs), attracting new players and increasing competition: Why will AVOD grow? The rapid adoption of CTVs has become the catalyst for AVOD consumption, prompting marketers to shift their expenditure from linear to AVOD.
  • February 4, 2021

    Top 5 Media Trends in 2021

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    2020 was a disruptive year for everyone, including the media industry. The pressures have exposed industry fault lines and toppling entrenched arrangements. Our top media trends for 2021 are:
    1. SVOD market flattens
    2. Sports rights shakeout to continue
    3. We’ve passed “peak platform”
    4. Programmatic advertising transcends the cookie
    5. Localism’s last throw
    This report explores these trends in greater detail and how they will impact the media landscape.
  • January 28, 2021

    2021 Video Entertainment Market Outlook

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    • We forecast the Australian video market to decline at a 2% CAGR to about A$5.5bn in 2024, driven primarily by the revenue deflation as viewing shifts from traditional to digital platforms.
    • COVID-19 has provided a massive boost to SVOD revenues, which will continue to grow at a 9.3% CAGR through to 2024. However, we forecast a significant decline in Pay-TV and Physical media formats.
    • Pay-TV will remain under pressure driven by the structural changes in the way video content is consumed. While Foxtel will offset some of this pressure by participating in the SVOD market, it will not be able to recover the losses in its traditional Pay-TV business.
  • December 9, 2020

    Australian Data Centres and Submarine Cables Outlook

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    Data centres embracing a hyperscale future, driven by cloud migrations and increasing international traffic through submarine cables.
  • December 3, 2020

    Australia Out-of-Home Market Outlook Report

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    The Australian Out-of-Home (OOH) market had been growing continuously until it was hit by COVID in 2020. The market grew at 9% CAGR in the 8 years to FY19 as digital revenues took off but declined by 18% YoY in FY20.
  • November 23, 2020

    e-Pharma: the rise of online pharmacy

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    This report provides a quantitative snapshot of the evolution of Australia’s pharmacy sector, in light of the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic and the new technologies and business models that are making prescription drug distribution more convenient to Australians. The Australian government is currently introducing e-prescriptions under two models: the Token Model (where patients use a paper token or an electronic token sent to their device to access their electronic prescription) and the Active Script List Model (where patients gain access through their assertion of a single identity rather than through presentation of a token).
  • November 13, 2020

    Update: The Australian tower market 2020 – Telstra’s TowerCo

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    The market for traditional macro-towers in Australia is mature. All three carriers have been expanding their tower networks only incrementally in recent years, and site growth is low. 5G will not change this significantly, because 5G base stations are being mounted on existing towers, not new ones.
  • November 5, 2020

    MVNO Update: Has the Australian MVNO market peaked?

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    Australian MVNOs (not including sub-brands) have seen their market share grow from 6% in 2010 to 15% in 2020 with a majority of the growth happening between 2010-2015. However, we believe that MVNOs have reached a peak in Australia in FY20.
  • October 29, 2020

    Australia Radio Market Outlook: Radio is secure for now, but comp [...]

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    We forecast Australian radio industry advertising revenue to grow at 4.2% CAGR over FY20-24, but it faces a gradual decline in its share of total advertising expenditure share (6.5% in FY20 vs 5.9% in FY24).
  • October 22, 2020

    Australian Pharmaceutical Expenditure Dashboard

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  • September 24, 2020

    Australian Advertising Market Outlook 2020: COVID-19 impact will [...]

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    The story of the year is obviously the impact of COVID 19 and the associated economic slowdown. The -6.8% decline in FY20 AdEx will, among other things, hasten the trend to digital advertising.
  • September 15, 2020

    European mobile in Q2 2020: Sounding a more cautious note

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    Service revenue growth in the major European markets worsened by 3.5ppts this quarter, as a loss of roaming, prepay, and business revenues hit almost all operators. The UK was hardest hit as prepay and out-of-bundle usage was offloaded to Wif-Fi, and there was an accounting drag as a consequence of the ending of the relationship between O2 and Carphone Warehouse. Conversely, performance in the Italian market was almost flat as prepay usage was up and there was a degree of reprieve from competitive pressures from Iliad. Elsewhere, the French market was hard hit by the loss of inter-continental roaming as far back as February as China began to shut down but other fundamentals appear to be robust. In Germany, O2’s revenue trend was hardest hit but it maintained its strong net adds momentum. While the lockdown provided a break from ‘a very intense promotional environment’ in Spain, that intensity resumed as soon as lockdown lifted with particularly compelling converged bundle offers from Vodafone and Yoigo.
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  • September 8, 2020

    Surging online retail in the UK- Record growth during lockdown

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    The reopening of the high street from 15 June came as welcome news for businesses which had seen sales decimated since lockdown was enforced on 28 March. However, even as restrictions eased, shoppers stayed away, with high street footfall across the UK down by 48% in July year-on-year
  • August 27, 2020

    New Zealand Telco Market Outlook

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    We anticipate a negative-growth telecommunications market over the next few years, with broadband growth offset by declines in mobile and fixed voice.
  • August 25, 2020

    UK mobile market in Q2 2020 – Recovery interrupted

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    The sector was hit harder than expected by COVID-19 with service revenues declining by 7% overall vs a decline of just 1.6% in the previous quarter. Many telecoms operators across Europe have become more negative on the near-term outlook than they were a couple of months ago with full year guidance now downgraded by almost all players
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  • August 24, 2020

    UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q2 2020 – Things [...]

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    Consumer broadband, telephony and pay TV market revenue growth plummeted to -6% in Q2 (from -2% in Q1), with all of the ‘big 4’ operators’ revenue growth taking a substantial hit. The reduction in premium sports channel revenue was by far the largest factor, with there being some other lockdown-related negative factors, such as the opportunity cost effect of extra services offered for free by the operators to help their customers during the crisis
  • August 6, 2020

    The New Era of Voice Commerce: Be in It to Win It

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    The rise of voice technology is transforming the way we consume information and make purchases, giving customers the option to engage in a hands-free and seamless shopping experience.  
  • July 30, 2020

    Australian Telecommunications Market Outlook

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    We anticipate a negative-growth telecommunications market over the next few years, with slow growth in consumer revenues being offset by declines in the enterprise market. In 2020, we expect COVID19 to have a negative effect on both consumer and enterprise revenues as economic activity declines.  
  • July 2, 2020

    UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q1 2020 – No foot [...]

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    Market revenue growth plummeted to -2% in Q1 2020, with a lack of premium sports pay TV revenue the biggest factor
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  • June 17, 2020

    European mobile in Q1 2020 – Robust until recession

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    European mobile service revenue growth strengthened very slightly to -0.3% this quarter but, with many positive and negative factors at play, it would be wrong to conclude that we evidenced a convincing improvement in momentum
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  • June 10, 2020

    Netflix – Looking towards 2025

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    Netflix had an excellent first quarter in 2020 with the tail end encompassing lockdown and likely eliminating churn, as usage exploded
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  • June 9, 2020

    Trends shoring up – UK mobile market in Q1 2020

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    The slow recovery in UK mobile continued this quarter with a 1ppt improvement in service revenue trends
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