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March 7, 2019Mobile payments – New Zealand moving from cashless to walletles [...]
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsThe New Zealand payments ecosystem has seen considerable disruption in the last decade with new technologies, innovations and new industry players changing the way we pay. In particular, contactless payments has laid the foundation for mobile payments with consumers increasingly looking to ditch their cards and wallets in favour of digital wallets or mobile payment apps. -
March 6, 2019Sports SVOD – Can Foxtel deliver a KO?
Flash Report, ReportsOf all the video content genres, sport has the best reputation for delivering audience reach and a large number of viewers for traditional TV operators. But the rise of Sports SVOD and OTT platforms is threatening to undermine the established order. Foxtel has launched its standalone sports streaming service – Kayo Sports and signed up 100,000 subscribers within the first 3 months of launch. -
March 4, 2019O2 UK delivering well on many, but not all, fronts
Flash Report, ReportsO2’s Q4 results delivered market-leading service revenue growth of 3%, double-digit EBITDA growth, sustained strong net adds and low churn. With ARPU service revenue growth flat, all of the growth came from other service revenue including M2M (machine-to-machine) and MVNO; a lumpy category up by more than 40%. Following a period of strong outperformance, O2 will face some challenges in 2019: some cost inflation to mitigate and the risk of a churn increase following December’s outage although experience suggests this is likely to be short-lived.Sector Telecom. -
March 4, 2019MWC – all very exciting but where’s the money?
Flash Report, ReportsThe combination of 5G, AI, IoT and big data were evangelised at MWC as generating massive scope for the transformation of multiple industries. That much is probably true, but it is the tech and consultancy companies who will likely receive the benefits, with connectivity revenue likely to be modest. For the operators, 5G brings more capacity much needed for hungry smartphone users, and perhaps the opportunity to transform themselves into a leaner operating model. -
March 1, 2019The Next solution to ecommerce
Flash Report, ReportsConsumers have more shopping options than ever, forcing businesses to expand how and when they offer services. Online giants Amazon and Alibaba are adding physical retail to extend their routes to market. Omnichannel provides consumers an enhanced, seamless brand experience from research and discovery to purchase, delivery and after-sales, and allows businesses to react to changing consumer preferences more flexibly. Next is an omnichannel success story, introducing 48-hour home delivery in 1988 and online sales in 1999. Its market-leading fashion ecommerce business offers lessons on the future of retail. -
March 1, 2019Vocus 1H19 earnings update: Losses in both Consumer and Business
Flash Report, ReportsOn 27th February Vocus announced its 1H19 earnings. Revenue increased slightly but EBITDA and profits remain on a downward trend. Consumer and business segments saw large declines in revenue and SIOs. In a year of “resetting”, Vocus faces the difficult challenge of extracting value out of its fibre assets through enterprise projects and transforming its Consumer segment with a renewed focus on mobile and wireless.Sector Telecom. -
February 27, 2019The price is right for UK’s national newspapers
Flash Report, ReportsThe average cover price of national newspapers has risen by 58% since 2010, more than twice the CPI increase of 22%. Are publishers “shooting themselves in the foot” at a time when buyers and advertisers are defecting to online?. To settle this, we analysed all the cover price events by national titles between 2010 and 2018, which reveals the relative success of The Times when it has raised its price. For mid-market and popular titles, cover price hikes have on balance reduced circulation revenues and, by lowering reach, drained advertising revenue: a lose-lose scenario.Sector Media. -
February 27, 2019oOh!media CY18 update: market outlook remains strong…
Flash Report, ReportsOn 25th February 2019, oOh!media reported its full year CY18 earnings update.Venture Insights forecasts strong growth for the OOH market. oOh!media reported strong earnings and looks set to benefit from the ongoing momentum in the OOH space albeit with some short-term slowdown due to the elections.Sector Media. -
February 26, 2019Seven and Nine 1H19 update – increasing share in a declining ma [...]
Flash Report, ReportsSeven West Media and Nine Entertainment reported their 1HFY19 earnings last week. With a challenging environment for the core FTA business, traditional broadcasters must focus on improving audience share, driving new audience growth through digital content offerings and taking costs out of the business.Sector Media. -
February 22, 2019BT Global Services: Playing a bad hand as well as it can
Flash Report, ReportsBTGS’s strategic plan seems like a sensible move in a very challenging market but it heralds its transition to a new operating model where its competitive advantage is largely eroded, its addressable market squeezed and it is arguably sub-scale. Although hybrid infrastructure and revenues from transition to cloud-based IT will provide something of a cushion, guidance and consensus forecasts are too optimistic in our view – cost-cutting plans are therefore likely deficient. Longer term, with IT services increasingly easy for corporates to manage themselves, diminished appetite for hybrid networks and global giants such as Amazon, Microsoft and Google squeezing out the middle-man, the space that BTGS occupies is likely to be considerably smaller. -
February 22, 2019Time to create an addressable UK TV market
Flash Report, ReportsAddressable linear TV advertising, where precision-targeted ads overlay default linear ads, could enhance the TV proposition for advertisers, agencies and viewers, benefiting all broadcasters. In the context of dwindling linear viewing and rocketing online video ad spends, the adoption of Sky AdSmart and similar services on YouView and Freeview could take addressable TV ads from a sideshow to a pillar of revenue. Addressable linear is a bigger and more strategic prize for broadcasters than BVOD ads. Sky holds the key to wider adoption of its AdSmart platform if it can find a way – or a price – to bring ITV Sales and/or 4 Sales on board. -
February 21, 2019
BT Q3 2018/19 results: Openreach stronger than it looks, but Cons [...]
Flash Report, ReportsBT’s Q3 results were a little mixed, with mobile particularly weak, but the company remains on track to meet/exceed its (fairly conservative) guidance for the current year, and hit (modest) consensus expectations for 2019/20. Openreach was very weak at the headline level (-9%), but stripping out an accounting effect and internal revenue the division grew by 2% by our estimates despite significant price cuts, and full fibre roll-out is progressing well. While Openreach should accelerate this year, Consumer will be hit by a price rise holiday and slowing mobile, with investors likely having to wait for existing sports rights contracts to play out to see significant profitability improvement. -
February 20, 2019Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: January 2019
Monthly wrap, ReportsJanuary was a rather quiet month in the Australian M&A space, with the ELMO Software/ BoxSuite’s binding sale agreement as the only major transaction. The launch of 5G networks in Australia continues with the results of the 3.6GHz spectrum auctions, though TPG will scale down its deployment due to the Huawei equipment ban. -
February 20, 2019Australian Telco Breakfast Roundtable: Five key discussion topics [...]
Flash Report, ReportsBackground- On 19 February 2018, Venture Insights conducted a telco industry breakfast roundtable (in Melbourne and Sydney) to discuss the following five key topics for 2019. The consensus view was that these topics are both inter-related and very dependent on government decisions and future policy. In that regard, Australia is seen as unique to the extent to which government policy has determined market structure in the telco industry.
- Will 5G leadership lead to market share gain and ARPU increases?
- Will 2019 be the year of take-off for fixed wireless broadband substitution?
- Will there be consolidation in the IoT market in 2019?
- Will the Government announce its NBN sale strategy in 2019?
- What will be the outcome of the proposed TPG – VHA merger?
Sector Telecom. -
February 19, 2019Domain 1HFY19 update: pricing power and depth penetration save th [...]
Flash Report, ReportsOn 15th February 2019, Domain reported its 1HFY19 earnings. Pricing power, depth penetration and adjacent businesses drove revenue growth in an otherwise tough housing market while weakness in print meant overall revenue growth was flat YoY.Sector Media. -
February 18, 2019Telstra and Optus – nbn pain, falling ARPUs and the fight for 5 [...]
Flash Report, ReportsOn 14th February 2019 Optus and Telstra announced their latest earnings. Both revenue and earnings remained subdued as subscriber growth was offset by a slowdown in NBN migration payments, and continuing pressure on mobile ARPUs. 5G and Fixed Wireless remain key growth areas going forward.Sector Telecom. -
February 15, 2019European pay-TV: Resilient in the face of SVOD’s growth
Market Outlook, ReportsAcross the EU4, pay-TV is proving resilient in the face of fast growing Netflix (with Amazon trailing), confirming the catalysts of cord-cutting in the US are not present on this side of the Atlantic. Domestic SVOD has little traction so far. France's pay-TV market seems likely to see consolidation. Meanwhile, Germany's OTT sector is ebullient, with incumbents bringing an array of new or enhanced offers to market. Italy has been left with a sole major pay-TV platform—Sky—following Mediaset's withdrawal, while Spain's providers, by and large, are enjoying continued growth in subscriptions driven by converged bundles and discounts. -
February 14, 2019UK Cairncross: platforms intervention to save news
Flash Report, ReportsThe Cairncross Review has now reported on the tough question of “how to sustain production and distribution of high quality journalism in a rapidly changing technology environment”. New codes of conduct for the platforms and publishers are the Review’s key policy recommendation. In particular, the Review addresses the sustainability of public interest, including local, journalism. This news is important for democracy, but expensive to do well, not particularly popular and most sabotaged by an online ecosystem that rewards traffic over quality. This is a landmark public intervention, but implementation will be critical, even if there is no silver bullet – platforms, publishers and citizens need to rise to the challenge.Sector Media. -
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February 13, 2019AI in Insurance: Disruption Assured
Free Sample, Market Outlook, ReportsArtificial intelligence (AI) has enormous potential to disrupt across the data- and process-heavy insurance value chain. The growth of AI startups and adoption of (AI) by Australian insurers began in earnest over the last two years. The approach taken so far is one of collaboration rather than direct competition between incumbents and disruptors. -
February 12, 2019Wobbles ahead for TalkTalk’s fine balancing act
Flash Report, ReportsTalkTalk is delivering on its subscriber and revenue growth targets but is straining to get there. Price rises such as a £4 ‘TV access fee’ look increasingly risky. Whilst migrating to discounted high-speed helps to deliver top-line growth, margins are c. 40% lower; an unwelcome dent to already negative cashflow and stressed leverage. Both TalkTalk’s focus on revenue growth in a tight market and fibre rollout plans look increasingly unaffordable; a more modest ambition of stable revenues might allow a healthier business model to unfold.Sector Telecom. -
February 11, 2019REA Group 1HFY19 update: growth in a challenging environment
Flash Report, ReportsOn 8th February 2019, REA Group reports its 1HFY19 earnings. Core Australian business continues to drive earnings and revenue growth in spite of a tough macro environment but a write-down in the Asia business impacted earnings for 1HFY19. -
February 11, 2019
UK TV set viewing trends: linear audiences tumble in 2018
Market Outlook, Reports2018 was another bad year for traditional TV set viewing of broadcast channels, with a 5% decline year-on-year—its steepest since 2011. The decline accelerated among most demographics, but particularly for 16-34s, down 13% YOY from their already relatively low levels of TV viewing. Unmatched use, which includes viewing to Netflix, Amazon and YouTube, continues to grow, up 16% YOY, with both linear viewing and unmatched use becoming increasingly solitary activities. While heavier linear TV viewers are accounting for a greater proportion of linear TV viewing, it is the lighter TV viewers that are accounting for a greater proportion of unmatched use. Within the broadcast ecosystem, ITV had the strongest 2018 thanks to the FIFA World Cup, more Coronation Street, and Love Island. Most other broadcasters struggled in terms of viewing share, but the maturity of the market means major shifts continue to be rare. -
February 7, 2019
TPGs merger strategy must focus on potential merger undertakings [...]
Flash Report, ReportsThe ACCC has extended its decision time for the proposed TPG-VHA merger and has raised preliminary concerns that it will lead to a substantial lessening of competition. TPG has announced that it has ceased the rollout of its mobile network. Our report looks at the likelihood of whether the TPG/VHA merger will be approved given the potential no-merger test options which the ACCC could consider.Sector Telecom. -
February 6, 2019
UK Retail news update for January 2019
Flash Report, ReportsThe volume of retail sales (excluding fuel) rose 2.6% for the year 2018, thanks to improved consumer sentiment on the back of the Royal Wedding, FIFA World Cup and warmer weather. With no special events in 2019, the environment for retailing will be bleaker, with or without no-deal Brexit. December retail sales volumes rose 1.7% year-on-year, less than half the pace of November, as consumers shifted spend to Black Friday/Cyber Monday. We predict the trend will amplify in 2019, as consumers increasingly target their spending on discounted products, with direct implications for the timing and nature of advertising. The value of retail sales (excluding fuel) was up 4% in 2018 as a whole, masking the tale of woe on the high street. Offline sales fell 1%, while online sales boomed, growing 14% in value, a structural trend for 2019.
