Economic Outlook

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  • March 30, 2021

    (UK) Ecommerce forecasts 2021: Pandemic shifts remain for now

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    • Goods ecommerce accelerated in 2020 by four years above trend to reach 28% of retail sales (excl. fuels) from 19% in 2019. We anticipate that ecommerce in 2021 will remain in the same share range of 27-29%
    • Food and drink grew faster than any online category in 2020, doubling to over 10% of associated sales. Aside from food and drink, the agony of zero sales on the shuttered high street continued, with over half of all sales being online in 2020, likely persisting in Q1 2021
    • Offline retailing will recover due to deconfinement and the share of ecommerce will edge down in Q2 2021 and thereafter, but these new shopping habits will be sticky and anchored by persistent work-from-home, driving all retailers that are left standing to massively adopt online channels and associated advertising media
  • March 25, 2021

    UK’s Creative Industries: Boosting the regional economy

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    • The Creative Industries accounted for 6% of UK GVA in 2019, more than the automotive, aerospace, life sciences and oil and gas industries combined. The UK’s Creative Industries are the largest in Europe and are central to promoting the UK’s soft power globally.
    • At the core of the creative economy is the AV sector, which, in turn, is driven by the UK’s PSBs. In 2019, the PSBs were responsible for 61% of primary commissions outside London and are the pillar upon which much additional regional economic activity depends.
    • Going forward, only the PSBs are likely to have the willingness and scale to invest in production centres outside London with sufficient gravitational pull to reorientate the wider creative economy towards the nations and regions.
  • March 4, 2021

    Telco Half Year Results Reflect COVID Impact: Updated Forecast

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    Telstra, Optus, TPG, Vocus, Aussie Broadband, Uniti and Superloop have all announced results for the December half, with COVID19 looming large.

    The impact of COVID19 significantly affected the results. But this also means that recovery from COVID19 as immunisation programs roll out in 2021 will have an opposite effect. In this report, we have picked up some key numbers from these result announcements, and have discussed what it means for these telcos themselves, the implications for the industry in 2021, and how these affect Venture Insights’ forecasts for the Australian telco sector.

  • February 9, 2021

    Amazon beats the flu: Non-commerce drives impressive growth over [...]

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    The pandemic has pushed ecommerce to new heights around the world, as consumers substitute their offline purchases for online in the absence of being able to leave their homes. In this new paradigm for retail, Amazon stands to benefit most, providing customers with convenient one-day delivery and a range of competitively priced products.
  • February 5, 2021

    Global Britain is born: Post-Brexit muddle

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    • The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) grants zero-tariffs only to goods compliant with rules of origin, a subset of the goods previously traded freely, and dramatically raises barriers to exports, especially services, relative to the Single Market
    • UK (and EU) traders of goods must assume new onerous, costly and disruptive customs clearance procedures, also applicable to other third parties, which are certain to radically downsize trade with the EU, especially B2C e-commerce, typically single parcel
    • The UK’s initial vision of Global Britain via a pact on trade, security and defence with the US, rather than the EU, is not a priority now for President Biden, who also has a stake in the open border on the island of Ireland
  • February 2, 2021

    Still the iPhone company: Apple’s record pandemic year

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    Mobility is vital to companies selling products, rather than online services. However, all regions grew double digits in the quarter, with global growth hitting a bumper 21%.

  • January 21, 2021

    Top 5 Telco Trends in 2021

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    2020 was a disruptive year for everyone, including the telecommunications industry. But as a semblance of normality emerges, change in the industry continues unabated. Our top telco trends for 2021 are:  
    1. Low end operator brands seize leadership in the consumer market
    2. Telco infrastructure comes into play as operators seek to monetise assets
    3. Government refocus on regional communications as nbn rollout ends
    4. Enterprise market shift as nbn disrupts the fibre wholesale market
    5. 5G comes into its own as handset availability surges and coverage expands
     
  • January 21, 2021

    (UK) Update 2021: COVID-19 and Mobility

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    • The UK entered 2021 in the grip of a dangerous third wave of the pandemic, despite Lockdown 3.0 over Christmas, driving down trips taken by people to depressed levels last seen in Lockdown 1.0, reducing economic activity for Q1
    • Time spent at home closely tracks the severity of lockdowns and mandates to work from home (WFH). Underpinned by the UK’s advanced digital infrastructure and services, WFH is providing resilience to Gross Value Added (GVA) creation, while staff in B2C activities are furloughed
    • The City of London is emblematic of the potential for outsourced GVA creation under WFH. Its skilled and highly paid staff are too valuable to employers to risk exposure to the virus. WFH, largely preserving GVA, will anchor the future of work
  • January 14, 2021

    (UK) COVID-19 and Mobility

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    • Lockdown 1.0 in March-April-May 2020 reduced mobility in London to 65% of its pre-pandemic baseline, swelling time spent at home. London’s mobility tracked a similar decline to Paris and New York City, all hugely reliant on public transport
    • Easing lockdowns and good weather slowly led to a mobility recovery through the summer and early autumn, but it sharply declined again after November’s Lockdown 2.0. The mobility decline was greatest in the City of London, which is more acutely affected by working from home
    • Each nation in the UK diverged slightly from September due to varying local policies adopted by England, Wales and Scotland to address their public health crises. Notably however, Lockdown 2.0 did not cause mobility to fall to the same degree as late March
  • October 30, 2020

    UK economic outlook The V-shaped recovery turns W

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    The August month-on-month GDP growth figure of 2.7% disappointed relative to the rebound that occurred in the wake of lockdown being lifted, with GDP expansion of 2.7% in May, 9.1% in June and 6.4% in July. The Bank of England’s prediction in its August Inflation Report of a strong V-shaped economic recovery and a return to pre-pandemic levels of economic output by the end of 2021 turned out to be overly optimistic.