Infrastructure

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  • May 2, 2018

    Small Cells Part 1: Leveraging Public Infrastructure

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    Recent public infrastructure deals have demonstrated the joint benefits of combining smart city rollouts with mobile networks. Venture expects more infrastructure deals to be completed as governments recognise the clear public policy benefits and Telcos roll out 5G networks faster.
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    August 15, 2017

    The 5G Evolution, Part 1 – Enabling Technologies; a Revolutiona [...]

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    Starting from 2020, the next generation of mobile networks, known as 5G, will have profound impacts not just for major players in the telco industry, but for key players across multiple industries and sectors.
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  • June 22, 2017

    Risks to NBN becoming more visible

    NBN’s FY16 results represent a dramatic turnaround however risks to ARPU and connections are on the horizon. Pressure on RSP margins will drive industry to focus on fixed wireless substitution and further market consolidation.

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    Batteries have become the mainstream solution to the energy crisi
    Batteries have become the mainstream solution to the energy crisi
    April 19, 2017

    Batteries have become the mainstream solution to the energy crisi [...]

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    Following the blackouts in South Australia, a strong debate around the future of electricity has been sparked within both the state and national governments. We take a closer look at this debate, summarise the causes, consequences and likely outcomes, whilst discussing the impact to the wider Australian energy market.
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    February 15, 2017

    Towards Australia’s Smart Energy Future

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    As technological developments continue Smart Energy is increasingly being adopted by the government, businesses and consumers in order to address climate issues and cut energy costs. We discuss the uptake of Smart Energy within Australia including the key technologies, government incentives driving uptake and the anticipated disruption from future changes.

  • February 6, 2017

    Enterprise cloud on the horizon

    Enterprise cloud computing democratises access to IT capacity ranging from specialised software to platforms to infrastructure, transforming cost structures in sectors like media and retail. Cloud enables unprecedented scalability of bandwidth for digital media services like Pokémon Go and Netflix, while also hosting the back-end for advertisers and retailers. As the industry consolidates quickly, intense competition among Amazon, Microsoft and Google is delivering value to customers and boosting adoption.

  • August 12, 2016

    Channelling strength: Virgin Media Q2 2016 results

    Virgin Media had its strongest June quarter since 2008 with 43k broadband net adds (31% of market net adds), of which Project Lightning contributed less than half. Current momentum remains largely dual play with continuing, though stable, net losses in the TV base. Content investments, and an upgraded UI and STB will be at the centre of TV promotions as refreshed triple play bundles are launched towards the end of the year in a bid to reinvigorate premium pay TV competition. In a saturated premium pay TV market, base stabilisation should be the near term target.

  • August 5, 2016

    NBN plans — Jockeying for position

    With the NBN now available to one sixth of Australian households, telecommunication carriers are battling aggressively for market share in the post-NBN world.  Venture Insights has reviewed the NBN plans being offered by a cross-section of the five largest carriers to see what they tell us about the competitive landscape.

  • Mobile Google: beyond the smartphone
    Mobile Google: beyond the smartphone
    March 30, 2016

    Ofcom’s Digital Communications Review: Blessed are the investo [...]

    Ofcom is encouraging competitive investment in local access networks using BT’s ducts and poles; in our view this is very unlikely to happen on a large scale, due to both the lack of spare capacity in existing plant and the generally poor prospective economics of a third local access network in the UK. Ofcom’s favoured model for Openreach is an enhanced version of the current structural separation model, and this is most likely to be reached via a negotiated settlement with BT; this and a number of other proposed measures, if implemented, will increase Openreach’s costs, and these costs will be re-charged to both BT’s retail division and its DSL competitors. Ofcom remains keen to retain four mobile network operators, in spite of clear evidence that at most three are viable at current retail price levels, and it is keen to implement a number of interventionist consumer protection measures that suggest it is keen on competition in theory, but not so much in practice.
  • February 23, 2016

    Lightning strikes: Virgin Media Q4 2015 results

    Project Lightning is showing clear signs of success, running ahead of new premises targets with ARPU and penetration levels in line with expectations, which helped deliver the strongest organic RGU performance in over seven years, and could add c1% to revenue growth in 2016. Recent performance, though strong, was not immune to the rivalry of Sky and BT, with efforts to manage profitability in the face of inflated sports content rights costs in turn yielding tension at the subscriber level; we anticipate round two when the 2016/17 Premier League kicks off in August. Mobile revenue growth was relatively weak and quad play penetration fell, but the H3G/O2 merger in the UK may provide an option to improve its mobile wholesale deal, and the cable/mobile JV in the Netherlands with Vodafone points to a possible similar deal in the UK in the longer term.
  • February 10, 2016

    Vodafone Q3 2015/16 results: Almost stable

    Vodafone Europe’s service revenue growth continued its trend of gradual improvement, helped by solid contract net adds and sustained high data traffic growth, and is now almost stable. Project Spring network metrics performed strongly in the quarter, and there is some evidence of this translating into better operating performance in Italy, which enjoyed positive mobile service revenue growth for the first time since 2010. Problems remain for the company in its other key mobile markets however, all of which remain in decline. Although these issues may prove temporary, and Project Spring may yet offer them a boost, further pressure is on the horizon due to competitor consolidation and associated regulatory remedies.
  • NBN RSP Outlook –Australia’s next oligopoly
    NBN RSP Outlook –Australia’s next oligopoly
    December 15, 2015

    NBN RSP Outlook –Australia’s next oligopoly

    The NBN was supposed to increase retail competition, but it is driving consolidation of the top 3-4 Retail Service Providers (RSPs). The margins of off-net players (ie M2, the old iiNet) will benefit, but on-net players and/or those over-weight Voice (ie Telstra, TPG) will be negatively impacted. We therefore believe the NBN journey is far from over with the risk that RSPs compete directly with the NBN.

  • November 20, 2015

    Retransmission fees: a Pandora’s box

    The government is expected to announce a Digital Bill in Q1 2016 that will propose profound changes to the structure and funding of the public service broadcasters (PSBs) in television, one of its aims being to enable them to extract retransmission fees from pay-TV platforms, valued at £200 million a year or more for the commercial PSBs. So far the government has only committed itself in its March 2015 consultation paper to the repeal of Section 73 of the Copyright, Designs and Patent Act (CDPA 1988), which in isolation will adversely impact only the Virgin Media cable platform. Now its ambitions appear to go far beyond introducing retransmission fees towards dismantling the entire UK PSB TV regulatory infrastructure of privileges and obligations and paving the way towards vacation of the DTT spectrum.

  • November 12, 2015

    In the League of Champions: Virgin Media Q3 2015 results

    Virgin Media had its strongest quarter for three years in broadband net adds market share – a robust performance in a competitive environment and very much in line with recent strong performances at both Sky and BT. Group revenue growth improved 1ppt, or 3ppts adjusting for distortions, driven by accelerating growth in all operating divisions although higher content and hardware input costs offset the benefit to margins. The Project Lightning network expansion program continues, targeting 250k new premises by the end of 2015, with a discernible impact to subscriber and revenue growth likely to be apparent from the start of 2016.

  • October 23, 2015

    NBN – first million homes passed but a long way to go…

    While we expect the NBN rollout to be delayed by 2-3 years, we forecast NBN revenues to grow at a 65% CAGR to reach A$2.0b by 2020. We believe revenues will be driven by subs growth (56% CAGR) with ARPU remaining flat, as we expect CVC charges to decrease in spite of internet traffic growth of 24% CAGR through to 2020. This report provides a deep dive into our NBN forecasts and assesses the key trends and drivers that are emerging as the NBN rollout gathers momentum.

  • October 12, 2015

    Turnbull takes the reins

    Media reform may not be quite as near as many believe in light of Malcom Turnbull’s elevation to PM. The NBN is likely to become even more of a political football (if such a thing is possible), while government policy is likely to support innovation, start-ups and digital transformation.

  • Telco Market Outlook – NBN putting the squeeze on Fixed Voice
    Telco Market Outlook – NBN putting the squeeze on Fixed Voice
    September 24, 2015

    Telco Market Outlook – NBN putting the squeeze on Fixed Voice

    While we don’t expect the overall size of the Telco market to change materially, we do expect product share to change over the next five years. We expect Fixed Voice to decline to 7% of the overall market from 15% currently driven by challengers offering VOIP style plans to take share from Telstra. We are in the midst of a material change in how Telco products are delivered and consumed, this report assesses these changes and provides our market outlook.