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  • February 4, 2021

    Top 5 Media Trends in 2021

    2020 was a disruptive year for everyone, including the media industry. The pressures have exposed industry fault lines and toppling entrenched arrangements. Our top media trends for 2021 are:
    1. SVOD market flattens
    2. Sports rights shakeout to continue
    3. We’ve passed “peak platform”
    4. Programmatic advertising transcends the cookie
    5. Localism’s last throw
    This report explores these trends in greater detail and how they will impact the media landscape.
  • January 28, 2021

    2021 Video Entertainment Market Outlook

    • We forecast the Australian video market to decline at a 2% CAGR to about A$5.5bn in 2024, driven primarily by the revenue deflation as viewing shifts from traditional to digital platforms.
    • COVID-19 has provided a massive boost to SVOD revenues, which will continue to grow at a 9.3% CAGR through to 2024. However, we forecast a significant decline in Pay-TV and Physical media formats.
    • Pay-TV will remain under pressure driven by the structural changes in the way video content is consumed. While Foxtel will offset some of this pressure by participating in the SVOD market, it will not be able to recover the losses in its traditional Pay-TV business.
  • January 22, 2021

    Netflix Q4 2020 results: 200 million subs with cash piling up


    Netflix believes that it no longer needs to raise external financing for its day-to-day operations

    This has come quicker than expected: the company had previously gone from the opaque “next few years” narrative it held for some time, to “rapidly closing in” on sustainable positive cashflow just last quarter, meaning that it was a “couple” of years off. One quarter later Netflix is confident its free cash flow will break even in 2021, up $1 billion on its prediction three months ago.
  • January 11, 2021

    (UK) Montgomery shakes news market again: JPI, third largest loca [...]

    The low price paid reflects the dismal prospects for print media, especially regional and local titles relative to national titles. Over the past decade, regional publications were affected at a greater rate than national counterparts by the structural decline of print circulation and advertising, resulting in significantly more closures, as well as issue frequency reductions.
  • January 11, 2021

    Serie A TV rights auction: Deflation looms

    On Monday, Italy’s Serie A issued its call for tender for its broadcasting rights for the 2021-24 cycle, covering three seasons. Bids are due by 26 January. Currently, Sky holds exclusive coverage of seven games per week with the remaining three fixtures carried by DAZN.
  • January 8, 2021

    Football rights economics: Low broadcasting competition underpins [...]

    • Beyond the short-term impact of the COVID crisis, the value of football rights in Europe is heading down
    • Lower competitive intensity in the broadcasting market is the main reason, and looks unlikely to be reversed
    • The leagues must consider long-term initiatives to broaden demand—cash fixes risk worsening their structural problems
  • December 16, 2020

    Taking Free-to-Air TV online in Australia: opportunities and chal [...]

    The report is designed to enumerate the key technical, commercial and equity issues that would arise in the course of such a migration, providing insights and identifying problems that would need to be addressed. Amongst other things, this requires an examination of Australia’s digital infrastructure and its capacity to support television distribution, the media and telecommunications business models that would need to be adapted, and the response of households to the changes in consumer technology that would be required. A household survey was also undertaken to inform this report, and details are included in the Appendix. The report is not a proposal that free-to-air television should entirely move to online delivery, nor is it a strategy to get there. Nor is it a cost-benefit analysis.
  • December 15, 2020

    Amazon Prime on Sky Q: Now almost fully aggregated

    Sky has agreed to host Amazon Prime Video on its platform, effective today. The Amazon app appears in the App section of Sky Q set-top-boxes, which in the UK places it alongside the existing icons of BBC iPlayer, Netflix, Discovery+, Disney+, YouTube and Spotify (it is currently third in prominence).
  • December 3, 2020

    Australia Out-of-Home Market Outlook Report

    The Australian Out-of-Home (OOH) market had been growing continuously until it was hit by COVID in 2020. The market grew at 9% CAGR in the 8 years to FY19 as digital revenues took off but declined by 18% YoY in FY20.
  • November 18, 2020

    ITV Q3 2020 results: Ads recovering, production may take longer


    Advertising demand has risen, with total ad revenue down just 7% in Q3, and Q4 expected to be slightly up—this means ITV will be down just over 10% across 2020.

  • November 17, 2020

    Sky UK brings group back on track

    Sky appears to have weathered the COVID-19 crisis, revealing an encouraging turnaround in its Q3 operating results, with revenue growth flat overall as each stream saw significant improvement from Q2
  • November 13, 2020

    Virgin Media: Subscriber growth renaissance continues

    Virgin Media’s lockdown subscriber surge continued into Q3, as working-from-home highlights the importance of the faster speeds its network can offer.
  • November 11, 2020

    2020 console launches Xbox looks to the future; PlayStation looks [...]

    The launch of new games consoles this week showcases broadly divergent strategies for Sony and Microsoft, with market leader PlayStation focused solely on defending its model against the rising tide of cheaper subscription games services.

  • November 4, 2020

    Channel 4 2019, 2020 and beyond

    Channel 4’s 2019 results were solid but unsurprisingly, greater interest is in how the broadcaster has fared in 2020, and what this might mean for its future

  • October 29, 2020

    Australia Radio Market Outlook: Radio is secure for now, but comp [...]

    We forecast Australian radio industry advertising revenue to grow at 4.2% CAGR over FY20-24, but it faces a gradual decline in its share of total advertising expenditure share (6.5% in FY20 vs 5.9% in FY24).
  • October 26, 2020

    Netflix Q3 2020 results: Returning to pre-COVID levels

    Netflix’s usage and churn are “back to what they were a year ago”, while subscriber growth was down (+2.2 million globally) Two levers contributed to Netflix’s recent explosive growth, adding 26 million subscribers in the first half of the year: the pull-forward effect of the pandemic that saw future subs coming to the service early, and the drop in churn as those intending to leave hung about as there was nothing else to do except watch TV.  
  • October 19, 2020

    Mediapro stops payments for French football: An opportunity for C [...]

  • September 24, 2020

    Australian Advertising Market Outlook 2020: COVID-19 impact will [...]

    The story of the year is obviously the impact of COVID 19 and the associated economic slowdown. The -6.8% decline in FY20 AdEx will, among other things, hasten the trend to digital advertising.
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    cover media
    August 31, 2020

    Nine, Seven results: COVID impact disguises accelerating FTA reve [...]

    As we have said previously, the FTA advertising revenue market faces major structural headwinds as audiences transition away from linear television. Both Seven and Nine reported declines in their core FTA advertising businesses in FY19 and FY20. The decline in linear FTA advertising revenue in 1H20, before COVID-19 hit, was 7% YoY. This was an acceleration of the decline compared to FY19, but the effect was of course swamped by the impact of COVID-19 in the second half. As expected, COVID-19 had a disruptive and negative impact, particularly in Q4. This is reflected in the FY20 revenue results, but will flow through into FY21 because the longer-term economic impacts of COVID-19 shutdowns have yet to be felt. To counter this trend and the one-off impact of COVID-19, Seven and Nine are managing the decline of the FTA market by following through with their investments in digital platforms (BVOD), improving yields on existing content, developing programmatic and addressable TV solutions, and cutting costs. SevenWest and Nine were also able to make gains in cost reduction and new revenue growth that kept them in the black. These green shoots give some hope for a digital rebound in the wake of the COVID-19 disruption. However, it will be several years before BVOD is enough to significantly offset FTA declines.
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  • August 21, 2020

    Virgin Media UK – Indeterminately boosted

    Virgin Media had its strongest subscriber performance for years in Q2, with its (ex-Project Lightning) existing base footprint showing positive growth to add to the subscribers gained on its Project Lightning network extension. This was partly due to temporary factors, with both Openreach and Sky not able to do in-home installations for part of the quarter, but the company has reported some sustained momentum, with the crisis boosting demand for higher speed broadband, and has decided not to implement its usual annual price increase in H2 to avoid the usual accompanying churn and customer dissatisfaction, instead choosing to prioritise subscriber growth to compensate for the ARPU shortfall.
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  • August 18, 2020

    BT UK – COVID-19 hit, fibre promise

    BT’s first full quarter under the shadow of COVID-19 revealed a mix of negative impacts not entirely as predicted, by ourselves or indeed BT itself. The suspension of sport certainly had an impact on BT Sport revenue, but only about half of what we had feared (less than £50 million versus around £100 million), and Openreach was also relatively unaffected, perhaps having returned to full service levels quicker than anticipated. There was a strong negative impact on B2B revenue, but this was much more focused on SMEs than large corporates, with Global’s financials largely unaffected (so far), and mobile (which BT had not specifically warned about) was hit hard across consumer and (especially) B2B, with the results of the other mobile operators suggesting that the effect was market-wide.
  • August 18, 2020

    ITV UK H1 2020 results

    There may be light at the end of the tunnel. After Q2 advertising revenues dropped 43% YoY, ITV has noted that there has been an upward trajectory (July down 23%, August appearing to be even better). This would leave ITV’s advertising revenues down between 15-25% for 2020 (ITV is unwilling to give forecasts). It appears that advertisers are beginning to think further ahead than they have for months—anecdotally, while around 80% of ad revenue is normally booked prior to the month’s start, this had reversed to about 20% in Q2.
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  • August 14, 2020

    Update: Foxtel SVOD growth can’t prevent major restructure

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    Last year we reported on Foxtel’s battle with its OTT rivals, and its attempt to capture a share of the OTT market. In 2019, we had a number of concerns about Foxtel. With the release of the News Corp FY20 results on 11 August 2020, this report examines whether our concerns were justified. In summary, we think that the last twelve months have largely borne them out, with the exception of Kayo cannibalisation.  
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  • August 12, 2020

    Art of the deal – Microsoft swoops for TikTok

    Microsoft hopes to buy TikTok from Chinese owner ByteDance before President Trump’s Executive Order halts transactions with the company in mid-September. Twitter is now in the game, but is unlikely to prevail
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