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    October 15, 2020

    5G iPhone: A small step for the UK mobile market

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  • September 17, 2020

    Mobile industry reshape continues in the UK: EE ends its relation [...]

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    EE has announced the ending of its relationship with Carphone Warehouse, hot on the heels of a similar announcement from O2 a few months ago and the recent closure of Carphone Warehouse high-street stores
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  • September 15, 2020

    European mobile in Q2 2020: Sounding a more cautious note

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    Service revenue growth in the major European markets worsened by 3.5ppts this quarter, as a loss of roaming, prepay, and business revenues hit almost all operators. The UK was hardest hit as prepay and out-of-bundle usage was offloaded to Wif-Fi, and there was an accounting drag as a consequence of the ending of the relationship between O2 and Carphone Warehouse. Conversely, performance in the Italian market was almost flat as prepay usage was up and there was a degree of reprieve from competitive pressures from Iliad. Elsewhere, the French market was hard hit by the loss of inter-continental roaming as far back as February as China began to shut down but other fundamentals appear to be robust. In Germany, O2’s revenue trend was hardest hit but it maintained its strong net adds momentum. While the lockdown provided a break from ‘a very intense promotional environment’ in Spain, that intensity resumed as soon as lockdown lifted with particularly compelling converged bundle offers from Vodafone and Yoigo.
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  • September 2, 2020

    CNNO Playbook: Crown Castle

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    The big three U.S. telcos (AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile) have historically owned and operated their own towers. However, with rising debt and heavy costs involved in deploying the networks, the big three telcos spun off their tower assets to independent tower companies. AT&T and T-Mobile sold their tower business to Crown Castle; and Verizon disposed of its tower assets to American Tower. It was a win win situation for both the parties, as telcos could monetize their tower assets and pay off their debts. In exchange, tower companies could gain a long term customer. The exit of the big three telcos from the tower space led to the market dominance of American Tower, Crown Castle and SBA in the U.S. tower market segment.
  • August 27, 2020

    The Australian tower market 2020

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    This report assesses the Australian mobile communications tower market and the drivers for tower and small cell demand in Australia. The rollout of 5G and renewed interest in small cell technology is an opportunity to reconsider the financing and ownership of potentially shareable infrastructure.
  • August 27, 2020

    New Zealand Telco Market Outlook

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    We anticipate a negative-growth telecommunications market over the next few years, with broadband growth offset by declines in mobile and fixed voice.
  • August 25, 2020

    UK mobile market in Q2 2020 – Recovery interrupted

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    The sector was hit harder than expected by COVID-19 with service revenues declining by 7% overall vs a decline of just 1.6% in the previous quarter. Many telecoms operators across Europe have become more negative on the near-term outlook than they were a couple of months ago with full year guidance now downgraded by almost all players
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  • August 20, 2020

    Optus 1QFY21 and Vocus FY20 earnings update: revenues fall amidst [...]

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    Both Optus’ and Vocus’ revenues were impacted by COVID-19. Both operators saw mobile revenues decline in the last quarter, as consumers relied more on fixed broadband while working from home. Pre-COVID-19, we noted rising pressure on mobile ARPUs due to competition and increased consumer interest in cheaper plans. We forecast that COVID-19 would exacerbate these pressures, and this has been validated by Vocus’, Optus’ and Telstra’s results this week.
  • August 18, 2020

    BT UK – COVID-19 hit, fibre promise

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    BT’s first full quarter under the shadow of COVID-19 revealed a mix of negative impacts not entirely as predicted, by ourselves or indeed BT itself. The suspension of sport certainly had an impact on BT Sport revenue, but only about half of what we had feared (less than £50 million versus around £100 million), and Openreach was also relatively unaffected, perhaps having returned to full service levels quicker than anticipated. There was a strong negative impact on B2B revenue, but this was much more focused on SMEs than large corporates, with Global’s financials largely unaffected (so far), and mobile (which BT had not specifically warned about) was hit hard across consumer and (especially) B2B, with the results of the other mobile operators suggesting that the effect was market-wide.
  • July 30, 2020

    Australian Telecommunications Market Outlook

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    We anticipate a negative-growth telecommunications market over the next few years, with slow growth in consumer revenues being offset by declines in the enterprise market. In 2020, we expect COVID19 to have a negative effect on both consumer and enterprise revenues as economic activity declines.  
  • July 24, 2020

    Technology and connectivity critical for Australian SMBs

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    With COVID-19, the Australian economy has undergone a large demand-side shock where consumer demand for many products and services has disappeared following the introduction of social distancing rules to flatten the infection curve.  
  • July 1, 2020

    Venture survey: NZ mobile consumers driven by price

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    Venture Insights performs periodic consumer surveys on mobile service and handset purchases across NZ.
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  • June 17, 2020

    European mobile in Q1 2020 – Robust until recession

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    European mobile service revenue growth strengthened very slightly to -0.3% this quarter but, with many positive and negative factors at play, it would be wrong to conclude that we evidenced a convincing improvement in momentum
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  • April 8, 2020

    COVID-19 impact on mobile ARPUs, 5G adoption and MVNO wholesale p [...]

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    As COVID-19 spreads its footprint in Australia, social-distancing and quarantine measures are becoming the norm. This means that a large number of people are now working and communicating with other businesses from their home. While many of the telcos have responded with capacity increases to deal with the traffic, this paper considers some of the longer-term issues which can come from a slowdown in the economy post the lockdown period.
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  • April 7, 2020

    Baby steps to recovery – European mobile in Q4 2019

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    European mobile service revenue growth improved by 1ppt to -1.2% primarily as a consequence of diminished competitive intensity in France. Trends elsewhere were largely flat
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  • January 9, 2020

    Bopping along the bottom: European mobile in Q3 2019

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    European mobile revenues remain decidedly in decline this quarter at -2% – a slight worsening since Q2 as the full force of cuts to intra EU calls hits. There are signs that dual brand strategies may be reaching their useful limit as erstwhile premium customers shift to value. There is scope for some trends to slowly improve from here, although end of contract notifications will impact all markets before the end of 2020, with the UK first off the blocks in Q1.
  • September 17, 2019

    Cut-price iPhones: Apple’s innovative approach

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    Apple’s iPhone launch event was relatively light on iPhone, which shared the stage with games, TV, Watch, iPad and retail announcements. This reflects Apple’s developing priorities: as iPhone sales soften, it needs to find new ways to extract value from the wealthy user base it has spent a decade nurturing. Apple has embraced this new strategy, offering a range of cheaper points of entry into its ecosystem, making the lost profits back on accessories or content subscriptions
  • July 3, 2019

    Transforming the live sports experience – it’s game on for 5G

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    Major sports codes in Australia are trying to figure out how to engage and attract younger fans, and they are looking to technology not only to gain and retain fans but also to get fans into the stadium. Technological development is rapidly changing almost every facet of the business of live sports and as sport changes both on and off the field, innovation has become a key priority for all industry stakeholders.  
  • June 25, 2019

    European mobile in Q1 2019: Toughest conditions in four years

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    European mobile service revenue growth slipped again to -2.0%; its worst performance in four years.Regulation limiting intra-EU call prices could hit hard next quarter – with the UK likely to be hardest hit by up to 6% of revenues and 20% of EBITDA. Excluding the EU-call impact, we see greatest scope for improving trends in Italy and France thanks to easier comps and diminishing competitive intensity.

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  • June 20, 2019

    Network Slicing – business transformation opportunities from me [...]

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    Network slicing is a key feature of 5G networks, allowing MNOs to allocate independent virtual networks to customers with specific capabilities and quality of service guarantees. In addition to improved performance, network slicing will create new business models that will bring new revenue streams for MNOs. There are a range of opportunities across media, gaming, emergency services, IoT, transport and MVNO market segments.  
  • June 18, 2019

    UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q1 2019: Price wars dom [...]

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    Market revenue growth dipped to around zero in Q1, with fierce competition on new customer pricing the major factor. All four of the big operators now suffer from declining ARPU, with existing customer price rises increasingly hard to land given falling prices for new customers. The rapid move to superfast is not helping as much as it should; the operators will hope that they fare better with the move to ultrafast.
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  • June 17, 2019

    UK mobile market Q1 2019 – Pressure to mount after mixed bag in [...]

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    The UK mobile market posted its slowest growth in more than two years this quarter; just 0.5% service revenue growth although net adds were strong and churn was down. ARPU is under considerable pressure thanks to regulation limiting out-of-bundle spend which will exacerbate as the year progresses. Several other negative developments look set to be layered on the pressures this quarter, including a step-up in competitive intensity as 5G launches –  with H3G’s pricing of unlimited data a sign of a resurgence in its aggression
  • June 13, 2019

    O2 UK: holding its own in toughening conditions

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    After a period of significant outperformance, O2’s Q1 results reverted to sector average revenue growth with ARPU down by 3% and all of the growth coming from ‘other’ revenues. Regulation limiting out-of-bundle spending has been a significant drag which will continue to worsen. A more competitive market and a punishing regulatory outlook will make it very challenging to sustain 2018 growth trends as this year progresses
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    March 4, 2019

    MWC – all very exciting but where’s the money?

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    ­­­­The combination of 5G, AI, IoT and big data were evangelised at MWC as generating massive scope for the transformation of multiple industries. That much is probably true, but it is the tech and consultancy companies who will likely receive the benefits, with connectivity revenue likely to be modest. For the operators, 5G brings more capacity much needed for hungry smartphone users, and perhaps the opportunity to transform themselves into a leaner operating model.