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  • New
    January 21, 2021

    Top 5 Telco Trends in 2021

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    2020 was a disruptive year for everyone, including the telecommunications industry. But as a semblance of normality emerges, change in the industry continues unabated. Our top telco trends for 2021 are:  
    1. Low end operator brands seize leadership in the consumer market
    2. Telco infrastructure comes into play as operators seek to monetise assets
    3. Government refocus on regional communications as nbn rollout ends
    4. Enterprise market shift as nbn disrupts the fibre wholesale market
    5. 5G comes into its own as handset availability surges and coverage expands
     
  • New
    January 21, 2021

    (UK) Update 2021: COVID-19 and Mobility

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    • The UK entered 2021 in the grip of a dangerous third wave of the pandemic, despite Lockdown 3.0 over Christmas, driving down trips taken by people to depressed levels last seen in Lockdown 1.0, reducing economic activity for Q1
    • Time spent at home closely tracks the severity of lockdowns and mandates to work from home (WFH). Underpinned by the UK’s advanced digital infrastructure and services, WFH is providing resilience to Gross Value Added (GVA) creation, while staff in B2C activities are furloughed
    • The City of London is emblematic of the potential for outsourced GVA creation under WFH. Its skilled and highly paid staff are too valuable to employers to risk exposure to the virus. WFH, largely preserving GVA, will anchor the future of work
  • January 15, 2021

    Roaming charges to return for some: Free EU roaming an optional e [...]

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    • Lockdown 1.0 in March-April-May 2020 reduced mobility in London to 65% of its pre-pandemic baseline, swelling time spent at home. London’s mobility tracked a similar decline to Paris and New York City, all hugely reliant on public transport
    • Easing lockdowns and good weather slowly led to a mobility recovery through the summer and early autumn, but it sharply declined again after November’s Lockdown 2.0. The mobility decline was greatest in the City of London, which is more acutely affected by working from home
    • Each nation in the UK diverged slightly from September due to varying local policies adopted by England, Wales and Scotland to address their public health crises. Notably however, Lockdown 2.0 did not cause mobility to fall to the same degree as late March
  • November 16, 2020

    FY20 Investor Day – Telstra counting on its 5G leadership to im [...]

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    Telstra held its annual Investor Day event on 12th November 2020. Telstra CEO Andy Penn and senior management addressed progress on its T22 strategy, the financial and earnings outlook, changing dynamics in the Enterprise market, progress on the 5G rollout, and changes to the company structure. In this report, we have analysed some of the key announcements from the event and provided our take on the same.
  • November 13, 2020

    Update: The Australian tower market 2020 – Telstra’s TowerCo

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    The market for traditional macro-towers in Australia is mature. All three carriers have been expanding their tower networks only incrementally in recent years, and site growth is low. 5G will not change this significantly, because 5G base stations are being mounted on existing towers, not new ones.
  • November 5, 2020

    MVNO Update: Has the Australian MVNO market peaked?

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    Australian MVNOs (not including sub-brands) have seen their market share grow from 6% in 2010 to 15% in 2020 with a majority of the growth happening between 2010-2015. However, we believe that MVNOs have reached a peak in Australia in FY20.
  • cover 5G
    cover 5G
    October 15, 2020

    5G iPhone: A small step for the UK mobile market

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  • September 17, 2020

    Mobile industry reshape continues in the UK: EE ends its relation [...]

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    EE has announced the ending of its relationship with Carphone Warehouse, hot on the heels of a similar announcement from O2 a few months ago and the recent closure of Carphone Warehouse high-street stores
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  • September 15, 2020

    European mobile in Q2 2020: Sounding a more cautious note

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    Service revenue growth in the major European markets worsened by 3.5ppts this quarter, as a loss of roaming, prepay, and business revenues hit almost all operators. The UK was hardest hit as prepay and out-of-bundle usage was offloaded to Wif-Fi, and there was an accounting drag as a consequence of the ending of the relationship between O2 and Carphone Warehouse. Conversely, performance in the Italian market was almost flat as prepay usage was up and there was a degree of reprieve from competitive pressures from Iliad. Elsewhere, the French market was hard hit by the loss of inter-continental roaming as far back as February as China began to shut down but other fundamentals appear to be robust. In Germany, O2’s revenue trend was hardest hit but it maintained its strong net adds momentum. While the lockdown provided a break from ‘a very intense promotional environment’ in Spain, that intensity resumed as soon as lockdown lifted with particularly compelling converged bundle offers from Vodafone and Yoigo.
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  • September 2, 2020

    CNNO Playbook: Crown Castle

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    The big three U.S. telcos (AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile) have historically owned and operated their own towers. However, with rising debt and heavy costs involved in deploying the networks, the big three telcos spun off their tower assets to independent tower companies. AT&T and T-Mobile sold their tower business to Crown Castle; and Verizon disposed of its tower assets to American Tower. It was a win win situation for both the parties, as telcos could monetize their tower assets and pay off their debts. In exchange, tower companies could gain a long term customer. The exit of the big three telcos from the tower space led to the market dominance of American Tower, Crown Castle and SBA in the U.S. tower market segment.
  • August 27, 2020

    The Australian tower market 2020

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    This report assesses the Australian mobile communications tower market and the drivers for tower and small cell demand in Australia. The rollout of 5G and renewed interest in small cell technology is an opportunity to reconsider the financing and ownership of potentially shareable infrastructure.
  • August 27, 2020

    New Zealand Telco Market Outlook

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    We anticipate a negative-growth telecommunications market over the next few years, with broadband growth offset by declines in mobile and fixed voice.
  • August 25, 2020

    UK mobile market in Q2 2020 – Recovery interrupted

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    The sector was hit harder than expected by COVID-19 with service revenues declining by 7% overall vs a decline of just 1.6% in the previous quarter. Many telecoms operators across Europe have become more negative on the near-term outlook than they were a couple of months ago with full year guidance now downgraded by almost all players
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  • August 20, 2020

    Optus 1QFY21 and Vocus FY20 earnings update: revenues fall amidst [...]

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    Both Optus’ and Vocus’ revenues were impacted by COVID-19. Both operators saw mobile revenues decline in the last quarter, as consumers relied more on fixed broadband while working from home. Pre-COVID-19, we noted rising pressure on mobile ARPUs due to competition and increased consumer interest in cheaper plans. We forecast that COVID-19 would exacerbate these pressures, and this has been validated by Vocus’, Optus’ and Telstra’s results this week.
  • August 18, 2020

    BT UK – COVID-19 hit, fibre promise

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    BT’s first full quarter under the shadow of COVID-19 revealed a mix of negative impacts not entirely as predicted, by ourselves or indeed BT itself. The suspension of sport certainly had an impact on BT Sport revenue, but only about half of what we had feared (less than £50 million versus around £100 million), and Openreach was also relatively unaffected, perhaps having returned to full service levels quicker than anticipated. There was a strong negative impact on B2B revenue, but this was much more focused on SMEs than large corporates, with Global’s financials largely unaffected (so far), and mobile (which BT had not specifically warned about) was hit hard across consumer and (especially) B2B, with the results of the other mobile operators suggesting that the effect was market-wide.
  • July 30, 2020

    Australian Telecommunications Market Outlook

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    We anticipate a negative-growth telecommunications market over the next few years, with slow growth in consumer revenues being offset by declines in the enterprise market. In 2020, we expect COVID19 to have a negative effect on both consumer and enterprise revenues as economic activity declines.  
  • July 24, 2020

    Technology and connectivity critical for Australian SMBs

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    With COVID-19, the Australian economy has undergone a large demand-side shock where consumer demand for many products and services has disappeared following the introduction of social distancing rules to flatten the infection curve.  
  • July 1, 2020

    Venture survey: NZ mobile consumers driven by price

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    Venture Insights performs periodic consumer surveys on mobile service and handset purchases across NZ.
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  • June 17, 2020

    European mobile in Q1 2020 – Robust until recession

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    European mobile service revenue growth strengthened very slightly to -0.3% this quarter but, with many positive and negative factors at play, it would be wrong to conclude that we evidenced a convincing improvement in momentum
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  • April 8, 2020

    COVID-19 impact on mobile ARPUs, 5G adoption and MVNO wholesale p [...]

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    As COVID-19 spreads its footprint in Australia, social-distancing and quarantine measures are becoming the norm. This means that a large number of people are now working and communicating with other businesses from their home. While many of the telcos have responded with capacity increases to deal with the traffic, this paper considers some of the longer-term issues which can come from a slowdown in the economy post the lockdown period.
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  • April 7, 2020

    Baby steps to recovery – European mobile in Q4 2019

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    European mobile service revenue growth improved by 1ppt to -1.2% primarily as a consequence of diminished competitive intensity in France. Trends elsewhere were largely flat
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  • January 9, 2020

    Bopping along the bottom: European mobile in Q3 2019

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    European mobile revenues remain decidedly in decline this quarter at -2% – a slight worsening since Q2 as the full force of cuts to intra EU calls hits. There are signs that dual brand strategies may be reaching their useful limit as erstwhile premium customers shift to value. There is scope for some trends to slowly improve from here, although end of contract notifications will impact all markets before the end of 2020, with the UK first off the blocks in Q1.
  • September 17, 2019

    Cut-price iPhones: Apple’s innovative approach

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    Apple’s iPhone launch event was relatively light on iPhone, which shared the stage with games, TV, Watch, iPad and retail announcements. This reflects Apple’s developing priorities: as iPhone sales soften, it needs to find new ways to extract value from the wealthy user base it has spent a decade nurturing. Apple has embraced this new strategy, offering a range of cheaper points of entry into its ecosystem, making the lost profits back on accessories or content subscriptions
  • July 3, 2019

    Transforming the live sports experience – it’s game on for 5G

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    Major sports codes in Australia are trying to figure out how to engage and attract younger fans, and they are looking to technology not only to gain and retain fans but also to get fans into the stadium. Technological development is rapidly changing almost every facet of the business of live sports and as sport changes both on and off the field, innovation has become a key priority for all industry stakeholders.