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    June 10, 2021

    NBN’s SAU Discussion Paper: Putting the broadband market on a n [...]

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    The NBN Co’s 7 June Discussion Paper on a new wholesale pricing scheme will, if implemented, shift Australia’s broadband industry economics onto a new path. The timing is no coincidence. As the migration to the NBN concludes and NBN’s focus shifts from rollout to operation and upgrade, the pressures on RSPs will also shift. The move to a flatter wholesale price structure will reinforce trends to more straightforward product sets that we already see in the market for broadband services. And with the threat of migration churn receding, RSPs will have both the opportunity and the incentive to look again at retail pricing.
  • June 8, 2021

    Looking to annualisation and beyond: UK mobile market in Q1 2021

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  • May 28, 2021

    AU video viewing forecast to 2030: The new normal emerges

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    In our previous reports, we have raised issues around ARPU pressure on mobile service providers and highlighted the importance of price as a driver of telecommunications buying. We have said that competitive intensity (along with aftereffects of COVID-19) will put pressure on ARPUs which in turn requires a strong focus on keeping costs under control to maintain profitability.
  • May 26, 2021

    Vodafone: Throwing money at the problem

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    • Vodafone’s additional investment to boost a growth story that isn’t yet delivering failed to impress investors who value cashflow much more than promises for tomorrow, particularly given Vodafone’s track record with restructuring plans and product development
    • It’s a surprising time to be splashing the cash with leverage still finely balanced and riding on Vodafone delivering a 10ppt turnaround in EBITDA growth next year vs last. Commercial activity looks set to continue to be dominated by EBITDA promises
    • Selling a stake in Vantage Towers (temporarily) solved a leverage problem, but is creating a control problem, with the uncertain level of its future capex adding to investor concerns
  • May 13, 2021

    Venture Insights AU survey 2021: Broadband market converges as NB [...]

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    In our previous reports, we have raised issues around ARPU pressure on mobile service providers and highlighted the importance of price as a driver of telecommunications buying. We have said that competitive intensity (along with aftereffects of COVID-19) will put pressure on ARPUs which in turn requires a strong focus on keeping costs under control to maintain profitability.
  • May 6, 2021

    Venture Insights NZ survey 2021: No end in sight for NZ mobile co [...]

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    In our previous reports, we have raised issues around ARPU pressure on mobile service providers and highlighted the importance of price as a driver of telecommunications buying. We have said that competitive intensity (along with aftereffects of COVID-19) will put pressure on ARPUs which in turn requires a strong focus on keeping costs under control to maintain profitability.
  • April 28, 2021

    Venture Insights AU survey 2021: Mobile buying and churn drivers [...]

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    Venture Insights performs an annual consumer survey on mobile service and handset purchases across Australia. It asks questions around willingness to pay, intentions to switch service providers and handsets, and key factors responsible for this switching. We also ask which service provider the respondents are switching to, and thus determine the service providers that will gain or lose from this churn. The survey shows that price remains a key driver for mobile purchasing, underlining the difficulty of maintaining price increases that would lift ARPUs. Price continues to drive interest in MVNOs, but we expect that the MNOs can at least defend market share through sub-brands like Belong and now GoMo and Felix.
  • April 21, 2021

    Brief reprieve from COVID turbulence: UK mobile market in Q4 2020

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    The sector rebounded slightly in the quarter to December thanks to a seasonal improvement in the roaming drag, although the partial lockdown tempered the recovery. We await imminent news on spectrum trading, and there may also be some licence fee reductions as a consequence of the lower prices in the recent 5G auction. While the sector is likely to continue to struggle into Q1, the outlook is much brighter thereafter thanks to the annualisation and even reversal of some lockdown effects, and to higher price increases from the spring.
  • March 22, 2021

    UK full fibre regulation: The mist clears…somewhat

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    Ofcom’s full fibre regulation statement, released today, is largely as trailed, i.e. it allows BT’s Openreach considerable relaxation of wholesale pricing in return for building out full fibre.

    On the longer-term regulatory prospects, Ofcom continues to be fair but more obtuse than it could and should be, unnecessarily dampening investor enthusiasm. Ofcom will decide on a case-by-case basis whether to allow Openreach to offer geographic/volume discounts, using slightly contradictory principles.

    The publication and increased certainty may allow BT’s Openreach to extend its full fibre roll-out further, faster or even with external financing. The build plans of others will come under increasing question.

  • March 4, 2021

    Telco Half Year Results Reflect COVID Impact: Updated Forecast

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    Telstra, Optus, TPG, Vocus, Aussie Broadband, Uniti and Superloop have all announced results for the December half, with COVID19 looming large.

    The impact of COVID19 significantly affected the results. But this also means that recovery from COVID19 as immunisation programs roll out in 2021 will have an opposite effect. In this report, we have picked up some key numbers from these result announcements, and have discussed what it means for these telcos themselves, the implications for the industry in 2021, and how these affect Venture Insights’ forecasts for the Australian telco sector.

  • February 15, 2021

    Telstra 1H21 update reflects industry trends

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    Telstra reported earnings on 12th February 2021. In this report, we have summarised the earnings update. In our view the results are consistent with the top telco trends in 2021 that we identified earlier this year.
  • February 2, 2021

    Still the iPhone company: Apple’s record pandemic year

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    Mobility is vital to companies selling products, rather than online services. However, all regions grew double digits in the quarter, with global growth hitting a bumper 21%.

  • January 21, 2021

    Top 5 Telco Trends in 2021

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    2020 was a disruptive year for everyone, including the telecommunications industry. But as a semblance of normality emerges, change in the industry continues unabated. Our top telco trends for 2021 are:  
    1. Low end operator brands seize leadership in the consumer market
    2. Telco infrastructure comes into play as operators seek to monetise assets
    3. Government refocus on regional communications as nbn rollout ends
    4. Enterprise market shift as nbn disrupts the fibre wholesale market
    5. 5G comes into its own as handset availability surges and coverage expands
     
  • January 21, 2021

    (UK) Update 2021: COVID-19 and Mobility

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    • The UK entered 2021 in the grip of a dangerous third wave of the pandemic, despite Lockdown 3.0 over Christmas, driving down trips taken by people to depressed levels last seen in Lockdown 1.0, reducing economic activity for Q1
    • Time spent at home closely tracks the severity of lockdowns and mandates to work from home (WFH). Underpinned by the UK’s advanced digital infrastructure and services, WFH is providing resilience to Gross Value Added (GVA) creation, while staff in B2C activities are furloughed
    • The City of London is emblematic of the potential for outsourced GVA creation under WFH. Its skilled and highly paid staff are too valuable to employers to risk exposure to the virus. WFH, largely preserving GVA, will anchor the future of work
  • January 15, 2021

    Roaming charges to return for some: Free EU roaming an optional e [...]

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    • Lockdown 1.0 in March-April-May 2020 reduced mobility in London to 65% of its pre-pandemic baseline, swelling time spent at home. London’s mobility tracked a similar decline to Paris and New York City, all hugely reliant on public transport
    • Easing lockdowns and good weather slowly led to a mobility recovery through the summer and early autumn, but it sharply declined again after November’s Lockdown 2.0. The mobility decline was greatest in the City of London, which is more acutely affected by working from home
    • Each nation in the UK diverged slightly from September due to varying local policies adopted by England, Wales and Scotland to address their public health crises. Notably however, Lockdown 2.0 did not cause mobility to fall to the same degree as late March
  • November 16, 2020

    FY20 Investor Day – Telstra counting on its 5G leadership to im [...]

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    Telstra held its annual Investor Day event on 12th November 2020. Telstra CEO Andy Penn and senior management addressed progress on its T22 strategy, the financial and earnings outlook, changing dynamics in the Enterprise market, progress on the 5G rollout, and changes to the company structure. In this report, we have analysed some of the key announcements from the event and provided our take on the same.
  • November 13, 2020

    Update: The Australian tower market 2020 – Telstra’s TowerCo

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    The market for traditional macro-towers in Australia is mature. All three carriers have been expanding their tower networks only incrementally in recent years, and site growth is low. 5G will not change this significantly, because 5G base stations are being mounted on existing towers, not new ones.
  • November 5, 2020

    MVNO Update: Has the Australian MVNO market peaked?

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    Australian MVNOs (not including sub-brands) have seen their market share grow from 6% in 2010 to 15% in 2020 with a majority of the growth happening between 2010-2015. However, we believe that MVNOs have reached a peak in Australia in FY20.
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    cover 5G
    October 15, 2020

    5G iPhone: A small step for the UK mobile market

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  • September 17, 2020

    Mobile industry reshape continues in the UK: EE ends its relation [...]

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    EE has announced the ending of its relationship with Carphone Warehouse, hot on the heels of a similar announcement from O2 a few months ago and the recent closure of Carphone Warehouse high-street stores
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  • September 15, 2020

    European mobile in Q2 2020: Sounding a more cautious note

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    Service revenue growth in the major European markets worsened by 3.5ppts this quarter, as a loss of roaming, prepay, and business revenues hit almost all operators. The UK was hardest hit as prepay and out-of-bundle usage was offloaded to Wif-Fi, and there was an accounting drag as a consequence of the ending of the relationship between O2 and Carphone Warehouse. Conversely, performance in the Italian market was almost flat as prepay usage was up and there was a degree of reprieve from competitive pressures from Iliad. Elsewhere, the French market was hard hit by the loss of inter-continental roaming as far back as February as China began to shut down but other fundamentals appear to be robust. In Germany, O2’s revenue trend was hardest hit but it maintained its strong net adds momentum. While the lockdown provided a break from ‘a very intense promotional environment’ in Spain, that intensity resumed as soon as lockdown lifted with particularly compelling converged bundle offers from Vodafone and Yoigo.
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  • September 2, 2020

    CNNO Playbook: Crown Castle

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    The big three U.S. telcos (AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile) have historically owned and operated their own towers. However, with rising debt and heavy costs involved in deploying the networks, the big three telcos spun off their tower assets to independent tower companies. AT&T and T-Mobile sold their tower business to Crown Castle; and Verizon disposed of its tower assets to American Tower. It was a win win situation for both the parties, as telcos could monetize their tower assets and pay off their debts. In exchange, tower companies could gain a long term customer. The exit of the big three telcos from the tower space led to the market dominance of American Tower, Crown Castle and SBA in the U.S. tower market segment.
  • August 27, 2020

    The Australian tower market 2020

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    This report assesses the Australian mobile communications tower market and the drivers for tower and small cell demand in Australia. The rollout of 5G and renewed interest in small cell technology is an opportunity to reconsider the financing and ownership of potentially shareable infrastructure.
  • August 27, 2020

    New Zealand Telco Market Outlook

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    We anticipate a negative-growth telecommunications market over the next few years, with broadband growth offset by declines in mobile and fixed voice.