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  • October 6, 2017

    Consumer Magazine Publishing Part One: The Power of Brands and In [...]

    Evidence is mounting that the consumer magazine market is reaching an existential threshold. In this two-part overview of the UK consumer magazine marketplace we are advocating three industry-wide actions. Our conclusion is that brands investing in a unique consumer proposition will be able to outperform the broad industry decline, which, in turn, will accelerate for those brands that under-invest
  • ComCom says no to Fairfax/NZME merger – A short sighted decision
    ComCom says no to Fairfax/NZME merger – A short sighted decision
    May 12, 2017

    ComCom says no to Fairfax/NZME merger – A short sighted decisio [...]

    The merger of NZME and Fairfax Media has been rejected by the New Zealand Commerce Commission.We believe that, although the scale of the merged company could hamper competition within New Zealand, NZCC’s decision is short sighted on an international scale and as a result will significantly damage the print media market in New Zealand.

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    August 10, 2015

    E-Recruitment and UK Regional Newspapers

    Recruitment ad spend has led the growth of ad revenues of regional newspapers in recent years. Declining recruitment ad volumes in Q2 2005 and weak outlook for H2 2005 will significantly reduce ad revenue growth in 2005 from the 4.9% of 2004. This outlook will adversely impact groups that are more heavily reliant on recruitment ad spend, such as Northcliffe Newspaper Group and Trinity Mirror Group, and both have confirmed the challenging nature of the current trading environment in their results.
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    December 16, 2014

    Case studies: BuzzFeed, Vice, YouTube vloggers (Ofcom PSB review)

    As part of Ofcom's third review of public service broadcasting, Enders Analysis produced 12 case studies of online media services, examining how they contribute to the public service objectives. The full report and all case studies are available on the Ofcom website. Here we present three of those case studies: BuzzFeed, Vice, and the phenomenon of YouTube ‘vloggers' producing content for young people. These represent sources of innovative content unlike that found in traditional media. The online services we assess attract younger audiences than traditional media, and also have a more flexible approach to monetising those audiences, relying on sponsorship, creative solutions and even events and book deals to capitalise on their brands.

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    December 9, 2014

    UK advertising expenditure forecast 2014-2016

    2014 has been a good year for total advertising, which we forecast to grow by 5.5% across the year; display advertising spend is also forecast to grow by over 6% year-on-year. This is largely thanks to a positive economic backdrop, where we have seen a significant rise in consumer expenditure over the last two years. Online advertising spend has been the biggest recipient of growing ad spend, with 20+% growth last year, this year and next. This has mostly been to the detriment of print revenues, where online classified search solutions, amongst other factors like declining circulation, have disrupted print marketplaces. Video has been the largest growth area in internet advertising as online video consumption increases. Up to now online spend has largely been accretive to TV budgets but we are starting to see some advertisers switch to online video spend. However we do not expect TV to suffer in the same way as press.

  • November 21, 2014

    Auto classified advertising

    Auto is the third category in our annual series of reports on UK classified advertising, following UK classifieds and recruitment category outlook [2014-094] and Property classified advertising [2014-098]. In this year's report we analyse the key drivers in the communications marketplace for used cars, notably transaction volumes and pricing. Overall the auto market is relatively buoyant, with the post-recession new car sales boom starting to feed into used car revenues in 2014, although the sustainability of this credit fuelled growth is far from certain. Auto Trader remains the big beast in the marketplace after Guardian Media Group sold its 50.1% stake to Apax Partners earlier this year. Apax will likely be considering an IPO or sale, particularly as market conditions look favourable in 2015 and Auto Trader's strong leadership position looks largely unchallenged.

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    November 20, 2014

    Property classified advertising

    Property is the second category in our annual series of reports on UK classified advertising, following UK classifieds overview and recruitment outlook [2014-094] and with autos to follow. Our property market report analyses the key drivers in the communications marketplace for UK domestic property, notably transaction rates and house prices, but also substantial developments in government policy. We analyse the estate agent marketplace and drill down into expenditure patterns for property advertising across all media, and provide five year forecasts. We also look at the online property advertising markets in Australia and the USA to gain a broader perspective on potential developments in the UK. Here, the competitive battle between Rightmove and Zoopla continues; estate agents' plans to stem the duopoly's pricing power with the launch of a new portal in January will struggle to achieve consumer momentum unless there is a huge marketing investment.

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    November 7, 2014

    UK classifieds overview and recruitment category outlook

    Our annual series of reports on expenditure on advertising in the classified verticals of jobs, property and autos, kicks off with an overview of the print-to-digital transition that lifted the share of digital to over 50% in 2013. In summary, digital consumers are becoming more sophisticated and mobile traffic growth is accelerating. We thus expect classified services to be under pressure to innovate more in the next two to three years, particularly with improved mobile offerings. Zoopla Property Group, Rightmove's rival in the UK online property duopoly, floated on the LSE in early 2014; both companies retain healthy growth prospects with pricing power stemming from a lack of credible competitors. In contrast, Guardian Media Group announced the sale of its 50.1% stake in Auto Trader to private equity group Apax in January. However, as the used car market starts to recover, the timing could be right in 2015 for Auto Trader to come back to the market in some form.

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    August 19, 2014

    Consumer books: slow transformation

    The appearance of mass market consumer eBooks was delayed, evolved explosively, and has since plateaued more quickly than other media. Physical books are attractive objects and elegant devices compared to CDs and DVDs. Furthermore, “all you can eat” is not a reader's mindset, limiting the relevance and growth of mass market eBook subscription services. Amazon's mission is to grow market share, and strategic initiatives to move up the supply chain into publishing do not address its core issue: digital provides a poor discovery solution for dedicated book lovers, hence the continued necessity of retailers for publishers.

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    August 3, 2014

    Marketing, social and economic change: the UK is growing up

    The UK population is ageing, with over-40s in the majority for the first time in 2014/15. Since 2002, Baby boomers (young in the 1960s) and Gen X (1970s) have increased their shares of the UK's wealth, disposable income and consumer expenditure. Baby boomers and Gen X remain very firmly engaged with traditional media alongside the internet – older demographics are much more multimedia than younger demographics, who are disengaged with traditional media to the benefit of digital media. Baby boomers and Gen X are engaged consumers, inclined to switch brands and adopt technology, and brands that optimise exposure to them through traditional media will gain share.

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    July 31, 2014

    UK consumer magazines: digital and innovation

    In second of a two part report examining the current state of the UK consumer magazines sector we focus on magazine brands' prospects in the rapidly evolving digital and mobile landscape. Mobile presents a particularly fundamental challenge to magazines, but should also act as a spur for publisher innovation; we assess the degree of digital engagement from publishers thus far and consider the risks in ecommerce and opportunities in video. We look in detail at Good Housekeeping's digital transformation strategy to be rolled out in the second half of 2014, which combines digital utility solutions with bold innovations in its heritage brand. More publisher experimentation is a pressing necessity; the industry appears to have stalled on digital innovation and new competitors such as Houzz and Wiggle are occupying the digital ground in traditional magazine territory.

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    July 30, 2014

    UK consumer magazines: two-tier market opens up

    In the first of a two part report examining the current state of the UK consumer magazines sector we focus on the performance of print as paid circulation decline accelerated, down 10% year-on-year in 2013. We consider the display advertising performance of both consumer and B2B magazines across print and digital and provide forecasts through to 2017. While print display advertising decline in consumer magazines accelerated to 8% in 2013, digital growth was 12%, and digital advertising is now 15% of total display revenues. The market is increasingly diverging between rapidly declining titles and differentiated (often high value) titles with older readerships where circulation falls have been less severe. We expect this gap to continue to widen as an improving economy provides some respite for stronger titles over the next two years.

     
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    June 16, 2014

    Newspaper advertising: temporary reprieve

    National newspaper advertising fell 8% last year (and by 28% since 2007), but we believe a stronger economic outlook will slow the decline in 2014 to about 6%, even if volatility month-to-month makes budgeting and management a relentless challenge. The local and regional press should also experience some—but smaller—reprieve, though the sector will continue to haemorrhage national display advertising, so the sector focus must return to local enterprises. Digital advertising has reached meaningful scale at some titles, but growth in online display is slowing. Platform sales are growing quickly and are essential to resist the devaluing of context for digital marketing in content media.

  • May 12, 2014

    The New York Times: still a long way to go

    NYTNow, a new iPhone-only app offering a selection of New York Times journalism at a lower price, is the latest, pretty well executed manifestation of the company's gradual change into a digital news business. A year after its unveiling, we review the progress of the company's digital growth strategy, and point to some areas of concern, especially around video advertising. The biggest challenge the Times faces is to reengineer its journalism to appeal to a much broader digital audience, and to do so before others seize the opportunity its caution to date has opened up.

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    April 1, 2014

    News apps – service analysis and outlook

    Newspaper apps have very quickly become a critical means for publishers to optimise consumer dwell time in digital, and cement an integrated digital subscription service. In common with apps in other markets, they are evolving, with new business models and usability solutions emerging relentlessly, while challenges including mobile advertising and the integration of video with text-based content are far from resolved. Unsettled consumer discovery and interaction, and continued innovation by platforms and services on top, provides a mercurial environment for publishers, bringing opportunities for specialist and leading services that develop agile iterations, and increasing the existential threat for many others.

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    March 30, 2014

    Going live: London’s integrated media dream

    A key milestone in the UK's Local TV initiative, London Live is also the country's first integrated TV, newspaper and digital service, providing a unique prism through which to glimpse aspects of the future of its news, entertainment and advertising industries. History does not point to a successful outcome, but rapidly evolving consumer behaviour and technologies legitimately position London Live as a genuinely new, favourably timed proposition – albeit with no guarantee of even relatively modest success. In the rollout of Local TV, London Live is alone, with neither its success nor its failure providing more than very limited guidance for the rest of the country's local TV services; but it is nonetheless a major London media launch.

  • March 7, 2014

    Slides for Media & Telecoms: 2014 and Beyond, part 2

    Slides from the presentations by the following speakers at the Media & Telecoms: 2014 and Beyond conference on 4 February 2014: James Purnell, BBC; Dido Harding, TalkTalk; NIcola Mendelsohn, Facebook; John Paton, Digital First Media; Mike Darcey, News UK; Ashley Highfield, Johnston Press; Michael Comish, Tesco.

  • March 5, 2014

    Media & Telecoms: 2014 and Beyond, part 1

    Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 4 March 2014. The event featured talks by 13 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette. This report provides edited transcripts of the talks given by six of those speakers: Sir Martin Sorrell, WPP; Gavin Patterson, BT; Andrew Griffith, BSkyB; Thomas Rabe, Bertelsmann; David Dyson, Three UK; David Abraham, Channel 4.

  • March 5, 2014

    Slides for Media & Telecoms: 2014 and Beyond, part 1

    Slides from the presentations by the following speakers at the Media & Telecoms: 2014 and Beyond conference on 4 February 2014: Andrew Griffith, BSkyB; Thomas Rabe, Bertelsmann; David Dyson, Three UK.

  • January 10, 2014

    Channel 5 up for sale?

    Richard Desmond's appointment of Barclays to explore the sale of the Channel 5 Group in 2013 has fuelled speculation over prospective purchasers should Northern & Shell be intent on selling this asset. The reported target of at least £700 million, seven times the £103.5 million paid by Northern & Shell to RTL three years ago, reflects a strong performance in 2013, but needs to be against several distinctive factors, including Channel 5's near total reliance on advertising and the cross-promotional benefits it gains from the Northern & Shell print publications. Regulatory and strategic considerations suggest that neither ITV nor the pay-TV platform operators, Sky and BT, are likely to emerge as serious bidders and that an overseas group from the US is the most likely outcome if a sale is to take place.

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    December 19, 2013

    National newspapers: digital signs of life

    The UK national press remains a ‘big beast' in UK media, selling 7.2 million copies every day, supplemented by 1.6 million free newspapers; however, the decades long decline in print circulation and advertising has accelerated once again with the take off of smartphones and tablets. Print still accounts for the vast majority of the nationals' income, though revenue continues to fall due to declining copy sales and the structural shift of classified ads to the internet; there is also growing evidence that display advertising is declining by more than volume losses in some categories. Digital is gathering momentum due to acceleration in digital advertising and a shift to pay models. In the UK, where print subscription levels are low, and home delivery lower still, publishers face the obvious challenges of digital transition and migration from a newsstand economy to a consumer relationship mindset.

  • December 19, 2013

    2013 round up and topics for next year

    2013 has seen yet another year of strong growth in consumer adoption of mobile devices and screens adding to the challenges facing traditional media. Press and radio have long been affected, but television is now starting to feel the heat. BT and Sky's contest for premium pay-TV sports rights has intensified. August saw the launch of BT Sport, while BT's acquisition of the European football rights in November was a clear statement of intent, spending half of Channel 4's total programming budget on approx. 200 hours of content. The UK has seen buoyant advertising growth of around 4% in 2013, with similar growth expected in 2014, in the context of the strongest economic recovery in Europe.

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    December 13, 2013

    Local business marketing outlook

    Revenues from traditional directory advertising products are continuing their rapid descent as social and mobile services become an increasingly popular tool in SME marketing activities as a supplement to online search. Hibu (formerly Yell) and other local media companies have responded to the shifting landscape by developing comprehensive marketing agency solutions for SMEs. In addition to these new service options, SME advertising spend will be effected by improving local service economies, rapid growth of mobile consumption and the continuing rise of e-commerce in the UK, while we believe that the decline of print has left a gap in local online display that is yet to be filled.

     

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    November 29, 2013

    Scotland Independence: Media and Telecoms

    Scotland's SNP-led Government has published its White Paper setting out its assumptions for independence, including on broadcasting and telecommunications, where spectrum management will be assumed by the new Government, implying a discontinuity in existing UK-wide 3G and 4G licenses attributed by Ofcom. The SNP promises no change in the broadcasting environment except for the creation of a Scottish Broadcasting Service (SBS), which would occupy the BBC's position today. Channel 3, 4 and 5 licensees will be able to continue to broadcast without discontinuity, although free access to spectrum was not promised, which BSkyB of course doesn't require. The big ask is BBC One and BBC Two on free-to-air terms, implying a subsidy of £270 million to Scotland. This seems very unlikely to be agreed by the rest of the UK (rUK), since BBC Worldwide offers only commercial terms to other countries. However, the BBC will not comment on this assumption, so the Scots will only learn of the facts after the referendum.