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  • August 6, 2013

    UK internet device and consumption forecasts to 2020

    Reports of the death of the PC have been greatly exaggerated, but rapid adoption of mobile devices is changing how, when, where and why consumers access the internet. Over the next few years, we forecast that PC user growth will be limited to population growth, smartphone penetration will rise from two thirds currently to over 80% by 2020, and tablet users will converge to the same level as the PC audience. In addition, we project that overall internet consumption will nearly double by 2020, with PC-based usage declining before levelling out, and smartphone and tablet use increasing threefold. Of the traditional media sectors, we expect print media to be the most negatively affected by the rise of the mobile internet, with less impact on radio and TV viewing and advertising likely to be relatively resilient.

  • August 5, 2013

    Notes on a cheap iPhone

    A cheaper iPhone has been discussed almost since the original launch in 2007, but we believe costs have fallen and the market developed to the point that it now makes sense for Apple to offer a $200-$300 (unsubsidised) model. We see a positive but fairly small financial impact on Apple. The key benefit would be defensive: by extending the ecosystem and preserving iOS as developers' first choice, Apple would secure the whole portfolio. We believe a well-executed and distributed $200-$300 iPhone would sell double-digit millions of units – a significant challenge to Android OEMs and Google. However, the US market's pricing structure might limit the impact there.

  • July 18, 2013

    Japan’s recorded music still one of a kind

    Recorded music retail sales in Japan were flat in 2012 at $5.8 billion on the unexpected bounceback of CD sales, amidst the ongoing collapse of mobile music sales

    Smartphone adoption is driving up internet track sales, which topped mobile track sales in 2012, but the internet's price discount to mobile is squeezing track revenues

    Japan will be dynamic in 2013 and beyond for ‘access' subscription services, newly launched by Sony, J-pop label-backed RecoChoku, and carriers

  • July 8, 2013

    Google + Android and mobile

    By the end of 2013 there will be more iOS and Android devices in use than PCs. Google is using Plus and Android to reposition itself to take advantage of this, extending its reach and capturing far more behavioural data. We believe a helpful way to look at Google is as a vast machine learning project: mobile will feed the machine with far more data, making the barriers to entry in search and adjacent fields even higher. For Google, Apple's iOS is primarily another place to get reach: we see limited existential conflict between the two. However, mobile use models remain in flux, with apps and mobile social challenging Google's grip on data collection.

  • May 28, 2013

    Google Play Music All Access

    Google Play, the digital content platform from Google for Android devices, has added a music subscription service to the sale of music, ebooks, videos and apps. All Access, available only in the US initially, benefits from integration in Google Play, the default storefront on Android smartphones and tablets (excepting Amazon's Kindle Fire). All Access isn't available on Apple devices, in the majority in the US, severely limiting its reach. Google's main objective with Google Play is to support the Android ecosystem and attract and retain Android device owners, and thus OEMs and developers. We expect Google Play to operate slightly above break even like iTunes.

  • May 23, 2013

    Facebook and mobile social networking in the UK

    As smartphones have grown in the UK, so has mobile use of social networks However, mobile messaging services that offer an alternative channel to Facebook have become almost as important Meanwhile analysis by smartphone platform shows that iPhone users continue to have a higher propensity to install and use apps than do Android users. Android skews young and lower income, and messaging apps in particular start as a means to save money (though they are now much more than that), but even in this category iPhone users appear to care more

  • April 29, 2013

    TV platform growth forecasts 2013-2020

    The completion of digital switchover has left an equilibrium between the digital satellite, cable and terrestrial platforms that is not expected to alter significantly by 2020. The main anticipated change over the forecast period is pay-TV subscription take-up where the 50/50 split between pay and free TV households is expected to rise steadily to 60/40, or even 67/33 if we include more individually-, as opposed to household-, based OTT online services such as Netflix, LoveFilm or Sky's NOW TV. Most of the pay-TV subscription growth will occur at the lower end of the price range among BT Vision and TalkTalk customers, where the popularity and success of YouView will be critical in driving subscriber growth as TiVo has been and will be to Virgin Media holding its ground.

  • April 28, 2013

    Google's US and EU antitrust cases: 1:0 Google

    In January 2013, the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) cleared Google of anticompetitive practices in its core search and advertising business – a corresponding European antitrust investigation is pending, but looks set to take a (slightly) stricter stance on Google. The FTC's closing of the search bias investigation is key to Google's strategy to integrate and expand its general and vertical search products, such as its e-commerce channels Google Shopping and Google Maps, with direct positive revenue implications. The European Commission will most likely not impose search bias remedies later this year that significantly impact Google's current practices, and we therefore have a positive outlook on additional vertical search revenues materialising.

  • April 28, 2013

    Apple, price and market share

    Apple's numbers have got so good they're bad: after growing at over 50% for two years, relative revenue growth has, inevitably, slowed. The products remain very strong, and direct competitors continue to have little impact. (Apple's mobile phone market share has never been higher, for example.) However, the premium phone market itself, which the iPhone dominates, is at a potential tipping point.

  • April 10, 2013

    Facebook Home and mobile

    Facebook has announced Home, an Android app that takes control of your phone, replaces the home screen with your Facebook newsfeed and relegates any competing social services to, it hopes, an afterthought. At launch, Home will be available to at most 20% of Facebook's mobile base. It is an interesting tool to lock in core users and drive up their engagement, but can only be part of Facebook's mobile strategy. Facebook has strong mobile user and revenue growth, but has not ‘won' social on mobile as it has on the desktop, and competing services have drawn hundreds of millions of users. It is not yet clear Facebook will win, or even that there will be a single big winner.

  • February 6, 2013

    Slides accompanying Media & Telecoms: 2013 & Beyond (part [...]

    Slides from the presentations by the following speakers at the Media & Telecoms: 2013 & Beyond conference on 15 January 2013: •Anthony Wood, CEO, Roku •Anne Bouverot, Director General, GSMA •Thomas Hesse, Chief Digital Officer, Bertelsmann

  • February 6, 2013

    Media & Telecoms – 2013 & Beyond, part 2

    Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 15 January 2013. The event featured talks by 14 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette.

  • December 17, 2012

    Pre-Christmas mobile platforms update

    Smartphones and tablets running iOS and Android will outsell PCs by more than 2:1 in 2012. There will be 1bn of these devices in use by the end of the year, compared to around 1.5-1.6bn. PCs The hardware business continues to polarise, with Samsung and Apple dominating revenue and revenue growth and most other branded manufactures looking distinctly sub-scale. Samsung and Apple are using their scale to cement their position. Though Apple and Android now dominate the smart devices market, it remains subject to massive uncertainty at every level, with almost all sectors and companies facing major, often existential challenges in the next year.

  • November 9, 2012

    US Q3 handset sales: 80% smart, 41% iPhone

    In Q3 the ‘big four' US mobile operators sold 22.6m phones to retail contract customers (90% of the market): 80% were smartphones and 41% were iPhones The iPhone has had close to 50% of US smartphone sales every quarter since December 2011, when Sprint began selling the iPhone, and shows no sign of weakness US iPhone sales are supported by a market pricing structure that masks the iPhone's price premium

  • October 29, 2012

    TV, non-linear and disruption

    The linear TV broadcast industry has kept its oligopolistic structure remarkably intact over the last 50 years against a background of much technological innovation and re-regulation, but now faces a new wave of innovation that promises growth of non-linear at the expense of linear True disruption can only occur by solving the device challenge of developing on a mass scale new, compelling and innovative ways to access content, but so far non-linear has achieved a very small share of total viewing while linear viewing levels are as high as ever Although non-linear viewing may become substantial, it is unlikely to result in fundamental change in the distribution value in the industry

  • October 29, 2012

    Apple joins the rush for a tablet Christmas

    After selling 100m iPads in 10 quarters, Apple has entered the ‘smaller, cheaper' tablet market with the $329 (£269) iPad mini. This is well above the $200 (£159) point hit by Amazon and Google, who are selling at cost, but we expect ecosystem and design to make it a bestseller

    Tablets are still in price discovery: the iPad's US ASP has fallen from $610 to $505 since launch while Google and Amazon have found a market for smaller devices at $200. Apple is moving to extend its dominance and prevent competitors building a bridgehead in a new sub-segment

    We expect further record sales of tablets at the new lower price points over Christmas, accelerating cannibalisation of the desktop web and print by tablets and apps, which take the web to the train, sofa and kitchen table

  • September 16, 2012

    iPhone 5: maintaining the status quo

    Apple has refreshed the iPhone with a thinner design, better performance and the addition of 4G LTE, returning it (arguably) to the status of the best phone on the market for 6-9 months, until competitors catch up again. Apple's choice of LTE bands gives Everything Everywhere a 12 month exclusive selling ‘4G speeds for your iPhone' in the UK, although given that the iPhone 5 also supports the latest enhancements to 3G, the impact of this will depend much on how well it is marketed. The iPhone retains a super premium price, with an ASP of $624 in Q2. Even the discounted 2 year old iPhone 4 is $450 before subsidy, while much Android growth is under $150. Apple is locking in the top 25% of the smartphone market and leaving the rest to Android, for now.

  • September 2, 2012

    Announcement Season: Amazon, Nokia, Apple

    Amazon, Nokia and Apple are expected to announce new mobile devices in the next fortnight. We outline the main products and features expected and their implications

  • August 30, 2012

    Apple, Samsung, Patents and Android

    A US jury has found Samsung infringed Apple's patents with Android products and awarded $1bn damages. This is 17% of Samsung's Q2 operating profit and would be crippling to any other Android OEM: it sends ripples of uncertainty through the ecosystem. We expect the verdict to accelerate IP licensing between Apple and other Android OEMs, with Apple (like Nokia and other IP holders) levying a fee per device, though Google's ownership of Motorola may mitigate this somewhat. However, major changes in the Android proposition are unlikely to be necessary, and as long as the iPhone ASP is $650 and Android is $300 or below, market share is unlikely to shift much. Absent a cheaper iPhone, Android will continue to outsell iPhone 3:1 at much lower prices, especially outside the USA.

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    July 5, 2012

    YouView: better late than never

    YouView, the hybrid DTT/IPTV service backed by the public service broadcasters, is here, but with an initial retail box price of £300 it will be heavily dependent on the subsidies offered by ISP distributors BT and TalkTalk The TV market has evolved since YouView's conception in 2008, with many other internet-enabled options now available; its managed and integrated approach gives it some advantages but doesn't make it a ‘must have' We expect YouView to mainly appeal to Freeview and BT Vision upgraders and project take-up between 1-3 million TV homes by 2015, though if the product improves and pricing falls dramatically it could see faster growth

  • July 4, 2012

    Tablets: Google and Microsoft try for second place [2012-068]

    Apple sold 67m iPads through March 2012, and retains over 70% market share for premium tablets. Apple is aiming for the same long term dominance it enjoyed with the iPod, which maintained similar market share for a decade Microsoft and Google are taking radical steps to try to change this. Both are now making and selling their own hardware, while Google will sell a tablet at cost Microsoft and Google now have coherent tablet propositions, but they remain far behind on broader app ecosystems. Like Nokia, they are now back in the game, but they still have to play

  • March 8, 2012

    The new iPad: solid, predictable and devastating

    Apple refreshed the iPad yesterday, delivering few surprises, a market leading product and a set of features that we expect to ensure continued dominance into 2013.
  • February 12, 2012

    Enders Analysis’ Annual Conference

    Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 19 January 2012. The event featured talks by 13 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette. An edited transcript of notes taken during the speaker presentations follows.
  • Ad blocking on iOS 9 – Now you see me, now you don’t
    Ad blocking on iOS 9 – Now you see me, now you don’t
    February 9, 2012

    Platform wars, app stores and ecosystems

    Around 125m smartphones and over 20m tablets were sold in Q4 2011. If tablets are included, Apple is now the largest PC manufacturer, while smartphones are now outselling PCs. These devices are the battleground for a war of ecosystems in which Apple's iOS and Google's Android platforms are dominant and others are hoping for third place at best. iOS and Android sold around 92m units in Q4 and now have an active base between them of around 515m devices. Samsung now accounts for at least half of Android sales and is in some senses more of a rival to Apple than Android itself.