Reports of the death of the PC have been greatly exaggerated, but rapid adoption of mobile devices is changing how, when, where and why consumers access the internet. Over the next few years, we forecast that PC user growth will be limited to population growth, smartphone penetration will rise from two thirds currently to over 80% by 2020, and tablet users will converge to the same level as the PC audience. In addition, we project that overall internet consumption will nearly double by 2020, with PC-based usage declining before levelling out, and smartphone and tablet use increasing threefold. Of the traditional media sectors, we expect print media to be the most negatively affected by the rise of the mobile internet, with less impact on radio and TV viewing and advertising likely to be relatively resilient.

Smartphones and tablets running iOS and Android will outsell PCs by more than 2:1 in 2012. There will be 1bn of these devices in use by the end of the year, compared to around 1.5-1.6bn. PCs The hardware business continues to polarise, with Samsung and Apple dominating revenue and revenue growth and most other branded manufactures looking distinctly sub-scale. Samsung and Apple are using their scale to cement their position. Though Apple and Android now dominate the smart devices market, it remains subject to massive uncertainty at every level, with almost all sectors and companies facing major, often existential challenges in the next year.