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October 29, 2012TV, non-linear and disruption
ReportsThe linear TV broadcast industry has kept its oligopolistic structure remarkably intact over the last 50 years against a background of much technological innovation and re-regulation, but now faces a new wave of innovation that promises growth of non-linear at the expense of linear True disruption can only occur by solving the device challenge of developing on a mass scale new, compelling and innovative ways to access content, but so far non-linear has achieved a very small share of total viewing while linear viewing levels are as high as ever Although non-linear viewing may become substantial, it is unlikely to result in fundamental change in the distribution value in the industry
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October 29, 2012Apple joins the rush for a tablet Christmas
ReportsAfter selling 100m iPads in 10 quarters, Apple has entered the smaller, cheaper' tablet market with the $329 (£269) iPad mini. This is well above the $200 (£159) point hit by Amazon and Google, who are selling at cost, but we expect ecosystem and design to make it a bestseller
Tablets are still in price discovery: the iPad's US ASP has fallen from $610 to $505 since launch while Google and Amazon have found a market for smaller devices at $200. Apple is moving to extend its dominance and prevent competitors building a bridgehead in a new sub-segment
We expect further record sales of tablets at the new lower price points over Christmas, accelerating cannibalisation of the desktop web and print by tablets and apps, which take the web to the train, sofa and kitchen table
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September 16, 2012
iPhone 5: maintaining the status quo
ReportsApple has refreshed the iPhone with a thinner design, better performance and the addition of 4G LTE, returning it (arguably) to the status of the best phone on the market for 6-9 months, until competitors catch up again. Apple's choice of LTE bands gives Everything Everywhere a 12 month exclusive selling 4G speeds for your iPhone' in the UK, although given that the iPhone 5 also supports the latest enhancements to 3G, the impact of this will depend much on how well it is marketed. The iPhone retains a super premium price, with an ASP of $624 in Q2. Even the discounted 2 year old iPhone 4 is $450 before subsidy, while much Android growth is under $150. Apple is locking in the top 25% of the smartphone market and leaving the rest to Android, for now.
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September 2, 2012Announcement Season: Amazon, Nokia, Apple
ReportsAmazon, Nokia and Apple are expected to announce new mobile devices in the next fortnight. We outline the main products and features expected and their implications
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August 30, 2012
Apple, Samsung, Patents and Android
ReportsA US jury has found Samsung infringed Apple's patents with Android products and awarded $1bn damages. This is 17% of Samsung's Q2 operating profit and would be crippling to any other Android OEM: it sends ripples of uncertainty through the ecosystem. We expect the verdict to accelerate IP licensing between Apple and other Android OEMs, with Apple (like Nokia and other IP holders) levying a fee per device, though Google's ownership of Motorola may mitigate this somewhat. However, major changes in the Android proposition are unlikely to be necessary, and as long as the iPhone ASP is $650 and Android is $300 or below, market share is unlikely to shift much. Absent a cheaper iPhone, Android will continue to outsell iPhone 3:1 at much lower prices, especially outside the USA.
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July 5, 2012YouView: better late than never
ReportsYouView, the hybrid DTT/IPTV service backed by the public service broadcasters, is here, but with an initial retail box price of £300 it will be heavily dependent on the subsidies offered by ISP distributors BT and TalkTalk The TV market has evolved since YouView's conception in 2008, with many other internet-enabled options now available; its managed and integrated approach gives it some advantages but doesn't make it a must have' We expect YouView to mainly appeal to Freeview and BT Vision upgraders and project take-up between 1-3 million TV homes by 2015, though if the product improves and pricing falls dramatically it could see faster growth
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July 4, 2012Tablets: Google and Microsoft try for second place [2012-068]
ReportsApple sold 67m iPads through March 2012, and retains over 70% market share for premium tablets. Apple is aiming for the same long term dominance it enjoyed with the iPod, which maintained similar market share for a decade Microsoft and Google are taking radical steps to try to change this. Both are now making and selling their own hardware, while Google will sell a tablet at cost Microsoft and Google now have coherent tablet propositions, but they remain far behind on broader app ecosystems. Like Nokia, they are now back in the game, but they still have to play
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March 8, 2012The new iPad: solid, predictable and devastating
ReportsApple refreshed the iPad yesterday, delivering few surprises, a market leading product and a set of features that we expect to ensure continued dominance into 2013. -
February 12, 2012Enders Analysis’ Annual Conference
ReportsEnders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 19 January 2012. The event featured talks by 13 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette. An edited transcript of notes taken during the speaker presentations follows. -
February 9, 2012Platform wars, app stores and ecosystems
ReportsAround 125m smartphones and over 20m tablets were sold in Q4 2011. If tablets are included, Apple is now the largest PC manufacturer, while smartphones are now outselling PCs. These devices are the battleground for a war of ecosystems in which Apple's iOS and Google's Android platforms are dominant and others are hoping for third place at best. iOS and Android sold around 92m units in Q4 and now have an active base between them of around 515m devices. Samsung now accounts for at least half of Android sales and is in some senses more of a rival to Apple than Android itself. -
January 30, 2012Apple rewrites the textbook
ReportsApple has begun selling interactive textbooks via its iBookstore, a move which is likely to accelerate the digital transition in education. However, the pace of change will be slowed by the cost of devices and the limited number of textbooks that have been designed for tablet computers. By developing educational software and course materials, Apple is trying to position the iPad at the centre of students' educational lives a niche that could significantly boost its hardware sales.
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January 13, 2012Netflix faces uphill battle in the UK
ReportsThe launch of Netflix in the UK and Ireland has ignited the debate on the threat from over-the-top video to pay-TV services from Sky, Virgin Media and BT. Unlike in the US, Netflix's UK prospects and those of competitors such as Lovefilm, are fundamentally limited, given the availability of low priced pay-TV with strong on-demand components included for free. The impact of Netflix on the UK pay-TV industry is therefore likely to be even smaller than the (hard to discern) effect it has had in the US.
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December 9, 2011Pre-Christmas tablet market update
ReportsApple has now sold 40m iPads we estimate 4 to 5m in the UK and goes into the Christmas season with no credible competitors beyond Amazon's Kindle Fire, which is so far only available in the USA. Android phones are selling in huge numbers at half the price or less of the iPhone, but would-be iPad competitors are the same price or higher. With the continued absence of a meaningful content ecosystem for Android tablets it is hard to see consumers buying them in substantial numbers. Competing Android tablets have sold around a tenth as many units as the iPad, but others have sold far less: RIM's PlayBook has been a major disappointment, forcing RIM to write off $485m of inventory.
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November 7, 2011Nokia brings a new ball to the game
ReportsNokia has launched its comeback with two very solid Windows Phone devices at 420 and 270. Next year Nokia, like Apple, will have handsets with uniquely appealing industrial design. However, Nokia will not launch in the USA until 2012 and needs to add cheaper smartphones to the portfolio. Nokia and Microsoft face a hard struggle in establishing a third mobile app ecosystem. However, it is not impossible (Google has managed it in 18 months) and given more devices and the right execution they could manage it. 2012 will be the critical year. We believe that the flaws in the Android proposition mean there remains a real window of opportunity. However, if Apple launches a cut-price iPhone then the market will be turned upside-down, again.
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October 19, 2011
Apple’s results, the iPhone and Android
ReportsApple is now a $108bn company, with annual revenue up 66% from a year ago and 40% gross margins. September quarter iPhone sales dipped to 17m ahead of a new product launch, but Apple still sold 72m in the last 12m, compared to 40m in the 12m to September 2010. Apple has now sold 40m iPads for $20.3bn revenue, and 11m in the last quarter. All other competing devices have sold perhaps 4m. We expect Apple's dominance to continue through 2012 and potentially beyond. Google's Android sold even more smartphones than Apple, activating 150m in the last 12m and 55m in the September quarter. Yet in October Apple sold 4m of the new iPhone 4S in just three days, bringing in around $2.6bn: Google's annual run-rate mobile revenue is now $2.5bn.
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October 5, 2011
Amazon makes its move into tablets
ReportsAmazon has taken the ereader to $79 and the tablet to $200. The Amazon Fire is everything that Android tablets are not: a coherent high-quality user experience rather than a box of components. It will sell well, while new sub-$100 Kindles will reinforce Amazon's dominance of ebooks. Amazon began as a bookshop, but just 30% of Q2 North American sales were physical media of any kind. The Fire is part of a broader strategy to embed Amazon in online buying of everything from shoes to nappies to iPads and TVs. The Kindle Fire is a shop window on every coffee table. Media companies should not expect Amazon to be a more congenial partner than Apple. Amazon's long-term stake in the health of the books or magazine industries is limited: the Kindle is a new way to reach readers and viewers, but not a saviour.
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October 4, 2011
Apple refreshes the iPhone
ReportsApple will release the iPhone 4S later this month, with substantially upgraded internals but the same design. Despite disappointment at the lack of something with a 5' on the box, this is a solid update that maintains Apple's competitive positioning. The most significant omission was a lower-priced iPhone. Apple sells the 3GS and now the 4 at lower prices, but lacks a dedicated device to address the sub $300 (SIM-free) market where most future growth will come from. We think this is only a matter of time. Apple's new Siri' voice assistant looks very impressive as a USP. If it works, and spreads, it will join apps as a structural problem for Google, drawing people away from web search.
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August 18, 2011The mobile platform wars
ReportsIn this report we outline the current state and likely development of the war between mobile platforms. We discuss installed bases and activity levels, the key issues facing Apple and Android, including Android fragmentation and Google's acquisition of Motorola, and go on to look at the tablet market and the outlook for RIM, Nokia and Windows Phone.
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July 27, 2011Carphone Warehouse Q1 2011/12 results: weak start to the year
ReportsCPW Europe had a weak first quarter, with like-for-like revenue growth of -3.3%, with all of the drop coming from the 18 to 24 month contract length shift in the UK. We expect its performance to improve through the rest of its fiscal year, but it will need to in order to hit even the bottom end of its full year guidance. The US mobile retailing operation is doing much better, with very strong revenue growth, and is likely again to exceed full year guidance.
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July 13, 2011
Apple, Android and tablet market share
ReportsApple has now sold 25m iPads since launch, worth $15bn, and will probably sell 40-50m in 2011. Competing tablets have sold perhaps 2-3m in total so far and will not be competitive with the iPad until 2012 at the earliest. Android phones are now far outselling iPhones, but benefit from a narrower user experience gap and from selling at a half of the price. Android tablets must compete with the iPad at the same or higher price points, a far harder task. We believe it is possible the iPad will retain a 50%+ share. Media companies have veered from euphoria to outrage when contemplating the iPad and its autocratic creator. Android offers them little chance of either in the near future.
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May 22, 2011
Ebooks and accelerated change in bookselling
ReportsAmazon now sells more ebooks than print books on Amazon.com, while overall US ebook sales were 15.6% of the consumer market in March, up 142% from last year. Meanwhile, for some publishers over half of book sales are now through companies that are not book sellers. Waterstone's has been bought by a Russian investor for £53m, with James Daunt parachuted in to take it back to its roots in bookselling, while in the USA John Malone has bid for Barnes & Noble valuing it at $1.45bn. As book buying moves away from bookshops and away from print, both retailers and publishers will need to rethink both their scale and the way that they engage with readers. Beautiful shops and beautiful apps are probably an insufficient response.
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May 5, 2011
Carphone Warehouse Q4 2010/11 results: weathering storms
ReportsCPW Europe had a difficult quarter, with volumes falling 9% and like-for-like revenue 2%, due to continued prepay weakness and the shift to 24 month contracts in the UK. The US business was again very strong, growing volumes at 26%, and this strength is likely to continue due to an acceleration in store roll outs. Keeping the European business flat in 2011/12 will be a challenge, but the US business is likely to more than make up for this at the group level.
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April 17, 2011
The ebooks explosion
ReportsMarket data and industry anecdote point to an explosion in ebook sales in the US and UK in 2011. Leading consumer publishers are seeing ebook sales at 10-15% of total sales in January and February, driven by Christmas device sales. So far ebooks had been strongest in niches: romance, business books and frequent travellers. They have now moved into the mass market: few genres will be untouched. This shift brings with it a very different market structure, with Waterstones likely to shrink dramatically, technology companies with little stake in the health of publishing taking major roles and publishers faced with disintermediation and forced to build direct consumer relationships for the first time in their history.
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January 20, 2011
Carphone Warehouse Q3 2010-11 results
ReportsCPW's European volume and revenue growth dropped in the December quarter, but this was largely due to the higher mix of prepay in the Christmas period, with underlying trends (strong contract, weak prepay) unchanged. US volume growth surged to 34% as the company continued to roll out standalone stores in malls and shopping centres, and there appears to be plenty of growth to come. Looking forward, the UK business is likely to suffer from the longer handset contracts that have been rolled out by the UK mobile operators over the last two years, but continued strength in the US is likely to more than make up for this.
