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    April 29, 2013

    TV platform growth forecasts 2013-2020

    The completion of digital switchover has left an equilibrium between the digital satellite, cable and terrestrial platforms that is not expected to alter significantly by 2020. The main anticipated change over the forecast period is pay-TV subscription take-up where the 50/50 split between pay and free TV households is expected to rise steadily to 60/40, or even 67/33 if we include more individually-, as opposed to household-, based OTT online services such as Netflix, LoveFilm or Sky's NOW TV. Most of the pay-TV subscription growth will occur at the lower end of the price range among BT Vision and TalkTalk customers, where the popularity and success of YouView will be critical in driving subscriber growth as TiVo has been and will be to Virgin Media holding its ground.

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    April 28, 2013

    Google's US and EU antitrust cases: 1:0 Google

    In January 2013, the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) cleared Google of anticompetitive practices in its core search and advertising business – a corresponding European antitrust investigation is pending, but looks set to take a (slightly) stricter stance on Google. The FTC's closing of the search bias investigation is key to Google's strategy to integrate and expand its general and vertical search products, such as its e-commerce channels Google Shopping and Google Maps, with direct positive revenue implications. The European Commission will most likely not impose search bias remedies later this year that significantly impact Google's current practices, and we therefore have a positive outlook on additional vertical search revenues materialising.

  • April 28, 2013

    Apple, price and market share

    Apple's numbers have got so good they're bad: after growing at over 50% for two years, relative revenue growth has, inevitably, slowed. The products remain very strong, and direct competitors continue to have little impact. (Apple's mobile phone market share has never been higher, for example.) However, the premium phone market itself, which the iPhone dominates, is at a potential tipping point.

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    April 10, 2013

    Facebook Home and mobile

    Facebook has announced Home, an Android app that takes control of your phone, replaces the home screen with your Facebook newsfeed and relegates any competing social services to, it hopes, an afterthought. At launch, Home will be available to at most 20% of Facebook's mobile base. It is an interesting tool to lock in core users and drive up their engagement, but can only be part of Facebook's mobile strategy. Facebook has strong mobile user and revenue growth, but has not ‘won' social on mobile as it has on the desktop, and competing services have drawn hundreds of millions of users. It is not yet clear Facebook will win, or even that there will be a single big winner.

  • February 6, 2013

    Slides accompanying Media & Telecoms: 2013 & Beyond (part [...]

    Slides from the presentations by the following speakers at the Media & Telecoms: 2013 & Beyond conference on 15 January 2013: •Anthony Wood, CEO, Roku •Anne Bouverot, Director General, GSMA •Thomas Hesse, Chief Digital Officer, Bertelsmann

  • February 6, 2013

    Media & Telecoms – 2013 & Beyond, part 2

    Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 15 January 2013. The event featured talks by 14 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette.

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    December 17, 2012

    Pre-Christmas mobile platforms update

    Smartphones and tablets running iOS and Android will outsell PCs by more than 2:1 in 2012. There will be 1bn of these devices in use by the end of the year, compared to around 1.5-1.6bn. PCs The hardware business continues to polarise, with Samsung and Apple dominating revenue and revenue growth and most other branded manufactures looking distinctly sub-scale. Samsung and Apple are using their scale to cement their position. Though Apple and Android now dominate the smart devices market, it remains subject to massive uncertainty at every level, with almost all sectors and companies facing major, often existential challenges in the next year.

  • November 9, 2012

    US Q3 handset sales: 80% smart, 41% iPhone

    In Q3 the ‘big four' US mobile operators sold 22.6m phones to retail contract customers (90% of the market): 80% were smartphones and 41% were iPhones The iPhone has had close to 50% of US smartphone sales every quarter since December 2011, when Sprint began selling the iPhone, and shows no sign of weakness US iPhone sales are supported by a market pricing structure that masks the iPhone's price premium

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    October 29, 2012

    TV, non-linear and disruption

    The linear TV broadcast industry has kept its oligopolistic structure remarkably intact over the last 50 years against a background of much technological innovation and re-regulation, but now faces a new wave of innovation that promises growth of non-linear at the expense of linear True disruption can only occur by solving the device challenge of developing on a mass scale new, compelling and innovative ways to access content, but so far non-linear has achieved a very small share of total viewing while linear viewing levels are as high as ever Although non-linear viewing may become substantial, it is unlikely to result in fundamental change in the distribution value in the industry

  • October 29, 2012

    Apple joins the rush for a tablet Christmas

    After selling 100m iPads in 10 quarters, Apple has entered the ‘smaller, cheaper' tablet market with the $329 (£269) iPad mini. This is well above the $200 (£159) point hit by Amazon and Google, who are selling at cost, but we expect ecosystem and design to make it a bestseller

    Tablets are still in price discovery: the iPad's US ASP has fallen from $610 to $505 since launch while Google and Amazon have found a market for smaller devices at $200. Apple is moving to extend its dominance and prevent competitors building a bridgehead in a new sub-segment

    We expect further record sales of tablets at the new lower price points over Christmas, accelerating cannibalisation of the desktop web and print by tablets and apps, which take the web to the train, sofa and kitchen table

  • September 16, 2012

    iPhone 5: maintaining the status quo

    Apple has refreshed the iPhone with a thinner design, better performance and the addition of 4G LTE, returning it (arguably) to the status of the best phone on the market for 6-9 months, until competitors catch up again. Apple's choice of LTE bands gives Everything Everywhere a 12 month exclusive selling ‘4G speeds for your iPhone' in the UK, although given that the iPhone 5 also supports the latest enhancements to 3G, the impact of this will depend much on how well it is marketed. The iPhone retains a super premium price, with an ASP of $624 in Q2. Even the discounted 2 year old iPhone 4 is $450 before subsidy, while much Android growth is under $150. Apple is locking in the top 25% of the smartphone market and leaving the rest to Android, for now.

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    September 2, 2012

    Announcement Season: Amazon, Nokia, Apple

    Amazon, Nokia and Apple are expected to announce new mobile devices in the next fortnight. We outline the main products and features expected and their implications

  • August 30, 2012

    Apple, Samsung, Patents and Android

    A US jury has found Samsung infringed Apple's patents with Android products and awarded $1bn damages. This is 17% of Samsung's Q2 operating profit and would be crippling to any other Android OEM: it sends ripples of uncertainty through the ecosystem. We expect the verdict to accelerate IP licensing between Apple and other Android OEMs, with Apple (like Nokia and other IP holders) levying a fee per device, though Google's ownership of Motorola may mitigate this somewhat. However, major changes in the Android proposition are unlikely to be necessary, and as long as the iPhone ASP is $650 and Android is $300 or below, market share is unlikely to shift much. Absent a cheaper iPhone, Android will continue to outsell iPhone 3:1 at much lower prices, especially outside the USA.

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    July 5, 2012

    YouView: better late than never

    YouView, the hybrid DTT/IPTV service backed by the public service broadcasters, is here, but with an initial retail box price of £300 it will be heavily dependent on the subsidies offered by ISP distributors BT and TalkTalk The TV market has evolved since YouView's conception in 2008, with many other internet-enabled options now available; its managed and integrated approach gives it some advantages but doesn't make it a ‘must have' We expect YouView to mainly appeal to Freeview and BT Vision upgraders and project take-up between 1-3 million TV homes by 2015, though if the product improves and pricing falls dramatically it could see faster growth

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    July 4, 2012

    Tablets: Google and Microsoft try for second place [2012-068]

    Apple sold 67m iPads through March 2012, and retains over 70% market share for premium tablets. Apple is aiming for the same long term dominance it enjoyed with the iPod, which maintained similar market share for a decade Microsoft and Google are taking radical steps to try to change this. Both are now making and selling their own hardware, while Google will sell a tablet at cost Microsoft and Google now have coherent tablet propositions, but they remain far behind on broader app ecosystems. Like Nokia, they are now back in the game, but they still have to play

  • March 8, 2012

    The new iPad: solid, predictable and devastating

    Apple refreshed the iPad yesterday, delivering few surprises, a market leading product and a set of features that we expect to ensure continued dominance into 2013.
  • February 12, 2012

    Enders Analysis’ Annual Conference

    Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 19 January 2012. The event featured talks by 13 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette. An edited transcript of notes taken during the speaker presentations follows.
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    February 9, 2012

    Platform wars, app stores and ecosystems

    Around 125m smartphones and over 20m tablets were sold in Q4 2011. If tablets are included, Apple is now the largest PC manufacturer, while smartphones are now outselling PCs. These devices are the battleground for a war of ecosystems in which Apple's iOS and Google's Android platforms are dominant and others are hoping for third place at best. iOS and Android sold around 92m units in Q4 and now have an active base between them of around 515m devices. Samsung now accounts for at least half of Android sales and is in some senses more of a rival to Apple than Android itself.
  • January 30, 2012

    Apple rewrites the textbook

    Apple has begun selling interactive textbooks via its iBookstore, a move which is likely to accelerate the digital transition in education. However, the pace of change will be slowed by the cost of devices and the limited number of textbooks that have been designed for tablet computers. By developing educational software and course materials, Apple is trying to position the iPad at the centre of students' educational lives – a niche that could significantly boost its hardware sales.

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    January 13, 2012

    Netflix faces uphill battle in the UK

    The launch of Netflix in the UK and Ireland has ignited the debate on the threat from over-the-top video to pay-TV services from Sky, Virgin Media and BT. Unlike in the US, Netflix's UK prospects and those of competitors such as Lovefilm, are fundamentally limited, given the availability of low priced pay-TV with strong on-demand components included for free. The impact of Netflix on the UK pay-TV industry is therefore likely to be even smaller than the (hard to discern) effect it has had in the US.

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    December 9, 2011

    Pre-Christmas tablet market update

    Apple has now sold 40m iPads – we estimate 4 to 5m in the UK – and goes into the Christmas season with no credible competitors beyond Amazon's Kindle Fire, which is so far only available in the USA. Android phones are selling in huge numbers at half the price or less of the iPhone, but would-be iPad competitors are the same price or higher. With the continued absence of a meaningful content ecosystem for Android tablets it is hard to see consumers buying them in substantial numbers. Competing Android tablets have sold around a tenth as many units as the iPad, but others have sold far less: RIM's PlayBook has been a major disappointment, forcing RIM to write off $485m of inventory.

  • November 7, 2011

    Nokia brings a new ball to the game

    Nokia has launched its comeback with two very solid Windows Phone devices at €420 and €270. Next year Nokia, like Apple, will have handsets with uniquely appealing industrial design. However, Nokia will not launch in the USA until 2012 and needs to add cheaper smartphones to the portfolio. Nokia and Microsoft face a hard struggle in establishing a third mobile app ecosystem. However, it is not impossible (Google has managed it in 18 months) and given more devices and the right execution they could manage it. 2012 will be the critical year. We believe that the flaws in the Android proposition mean there remains a real window of opportunity. However, if Apple launches a cut-price iPhone then the market will be turned upside-down, again.

  • October 19, 2011

    Apple’s results, the iPhone and Android

    Apple is now a $108bn company, with annual revenue up 66% from a year ago and 40% gross margins. September quarter iPhone sales dipped to 17m ahead of a new product launch, but Apple still sold 72m in the last 12m, compared to 40m in the 12m to September 2010. Apple has now sold 40m iPads for $20.3bn revenue, and 11m in the last quarter. All other competing devices have sold perhaps 4m. We expect Apple's dominance to continue through 2012 and potentially beyond. Google's Android sold even more smartphones than Apple, activating 150m in the last 12m and 55m in the September quarter. Yet in October Apple sold 4m of the new iPhone 4S in just three days, bringing in around $2.6bn: Google's annual run-rate mobile revenue is now $2.5bn.

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    October 5, 2011

    Amazon makes its move into tablets

    Amazon has taken the ereader to $79 and the tablet to $200. The Amazon Fire is everything that Android tablets are not: a coherent high-quality user experience rather than a box of components. It will sell well, while new sub-$100 Kindles will reinforce Amazon's dominance of ebooks. Amazon began as a bookshop, but just 30% of Q2 North American sales were physical media of any kind. The Fire is part of a broader strategy – to embed Amazon in online buying of everything from shoes to nappies to iPads and TVs. The Kindle Fire is a shop window on every coffee table. Media companies should not expect Amazon to be a more congenial partner than Apple. Amazon's long-term stake in the health of the books or magazine industries is limited: the Kindle is a new way to reach readers and viewers, but not a saviour.