VI in the Press

Communications Day

Foxtel could reach a “tipping point” this year

Venture Insights was quoted in the Communications Day on the Video Entertainment Market Outlook Report.

Venture Insights predicts a 5.1% fall in CAGR for Australia’s pay TV sector through to 2023, while tipping SVOD revenues to rise by more than 12%, led by market leader Netflix.

The total video market in Australia is expected to be worth $5.8 billion by 2023. By then Venture Insights expects Pay TV and SVOD to contribute revenues of $2.25 billion and $1.7 billion respectively, something that would have been unthinkable 5 years ago. Cinema will be worth around $1.25 billion, based on a projected modest CAGR decline of 0.2%.

Communications Day

Telstra Health

Venture Insights was quoted in the Communications Day on a report about Telstra Health and the wider digital health sector, which also questions whether Telstra is the best company to run the growing business. 

Venture Insights said "The spiralling healthcare costs and Australia's ageing population is leaving the healthcare sector in an unsustainable situation, and without significant productivity gains the standard of health services in Australia will need to be reduced."  

Communications Day

Australia mobile sector cool on active network sharing, even as U [...]

Venture Insights MD Nigel Pugh was quoted in the Communications Day on the financial risks associated with 5G. Nigel presented on this topic at last month's CommsDay Melbourne Congress and told CommsDay shortly after that he believes it is time to look again at network sharing models. 

He said "In particular we believe a focus on regional RAN sharing and small cells may be targets for either joint venture or neutral host players - and highlight the NZ shared RAN model for rural connectivity. If governments continue to heavily subsidise regional network coverage then, in addition to mast sharing, they should consider the customer benefits of active RAN infrastructure sharing and the use of train repeaters to maximise investment outcomes."

The Australian Financial Review

Looming 5G threat to NBN just got real

Venture Insights MD Nigel Pugh was quoted in the Australian Financial Review on the looming 5G threat for the NBN. Nigel said "There’s definitely appetite in the market to try a wireless product, so that’s a big threat for the NBN".

He added "If Optus' 5G fixed wireless product delivers on its promise of guaranteed peak time speeds of at 50 Mbps, and up to 400 Mbps, for the same price as the NBN's 50 Mbps plan, it will be a seriously competitive proposition. Our own research shows people are very open to switching to fixed wireless. Optus has every reason to push this product. I don’t know what the margins are for their 5G product, but their margins for their NBN products are clearly very low. It doesn’t look like NBN pricing is changing any time soon, so I think the strategy of pushing people onto their network is a good one."

Communications Day

Telstra Wholesale plans symmetrical 4G plus 5G offerings

Venture Insights MD Nigel Pugh was quoted in the Communications Day on the effect of NBN Co targeting resellers with new enterprise and business offerings. Nigel said "To date, the majority of Australian MVNOs have been focused on the consumer market and when MVNOs do sell into the business segment they are usually leveraging an existing business brand".

He added "However, I believe that NBN business broadband will enable more challengers to enter the fixed business market, e.g.: Commscentre - and as such it's only a matter of time before these players look to become MVNOs in order to bundle 4G and 5G mobile services and also take advantage of 5G network slicing for higher quality business mobile services. As such we expect to see more MVNOs enter the business segment."

The Australian Financial Review

Sorry Vocus, NBN isn’t going anywhere

Venture Insights MD Nigel Pugh was quoted in the Australian Financial Review on Vocus CEO Kevin Russell's speech at the Vocus AGM. Nigel said "NBN Co's move into enterprise had changed the market. I think it’s a big deal for anyone that’s got infrastructure in place," he said. "You may have done an enterprise deal four years ago, which may involve putting fibre in place, and then four years later you're overbuilt by NBN. So that’s going to have to affect on the value of that asset". 

He agreed with NBN Co's point that the separation of wholesaler and retailer made NBN an attractive prospect to businesses and added "If you want to swap Vocus for Telstra it’s a lot simpler because it’s just a matter of switching retailer, not fibre.” 

He also agreed with Mr Russell's point that overbuilding – the laying of NBN fibre where other fibre already exists – was wasteful. "There could be some sort of hybrid model where NBN leases fibre already in place rather than overbuild them," he said.

Communications Day

Subsea cable influx stimulating Australian data centre market

Venture Insights was quoted in the Communications Day on the Australian Data Centres and Submarine Cables Report.

The planned influx of subsea cables landing in Australia is expected to trigger strong growth in the local data centre market, according to new research from Venture Insights.

Venture Insights MD Nigel Pugh said "The majority of Australian submarine cables terminate in Sydney, but Perth and Queensland are expecting new submarine cable landings. This will drive growth in the data centre usage in those locations."

The Australian Financial Review

ACCC ‘not in real commercial world’ on TPG-Vodafone

Venture Insights MD Nigel Pugh was quoted in the Australian Financial Review on his views regarding the court case proceedings in the ACCC vs TPG-Vodafone merger dispute. Nigel said "If the court rules against the merger, TPG "would be likely to build a competitive fourth network – even if it had to incur a premium to change vendors".

The Australian Business Review

TPG-Vodafone to lose ACCC appeal, tips Venture Insights

Venture Insights MD Nigel Pugh was quoted in The Australian Business Review on the TPG Telecom and Vodafone Australia’s $15 billion merger. Nigel said "The telcos will struggle to convince the Federal Court that they can’t compete in the market without the merger".

He added "In our analysis, the application of the ACCC’s no merger position (arguably) shows that TPG would be likely to build a competitive fourth network — even if it had to incur a premium to change vendors,"

"Finally, given the level of industry consolidation, we believe future industry mergers will continue to pose regulatory problems and, we expect to see a focus on infrastructure mergers moving forwards with the retail business separated as a MVNO/ RSP," he added.

Communications Day

ACCC will prevail in TPG-Vodafone appeal, predicts Venture Insig [...]

Venture Insights MD Nigel Pugh was quoted in the Communications Day on the predication that ACCC's February decision to block the proposed Vodafone-TPG merger will likely withstand a court appeal. Nigel said "Based on our analysis we believe the Federal Court could come to the same conclusion. TPG claims it is not likely to build a 4th network and there is now not a credible business case for the rollout of a new mobile network. Our high-level analysis predicts that TPG would likely find a way to build a network in order to compete as a mobile operator".

He added "Our high-level analysis predicts that absent the merger VHA would likely continue to compete as a mobile operator." Venture believes that the cost of the inability to use Huawei going forward has been outstated by TPG, as much of the expense of a mobile network is in passive and not active infrastructure.

The Sydney Morning Herald

Fletcher rules out NBN sale to Telstra

Venture Insights MD Nigel Pugh was quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald on the Communications Minister Paul Fletcher ruling out any chance of Telstra buying the National Broadband Network and nixed hopes of a cut to wholesale prices to ease pressure on the listed telco's profits. Nigel said he was "surprised the Minister made that comment" as there were several steps to be followed in order to sell the NBN, including a Productivity Commission review."