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August 22, 2019VHA and TPG need a Plan B
Flash Report, ReportsThe ACCC has opposed the $15bn merger between TPG and VHA. In the ACCC’s view the proposed merger will reduce competition in mobile services as TPG would be precluded from becoming the fourth mobile operator. TPG has announced that it has ceased the rollout of its mobile network and will not become the fourth mobile operator. VHA now wants the Federal Court to find that the proposed merger is not anti-competitive, so the merger can proceed.
March 21, 2019TPG 1H19 – Business sector to be a key focus as NBN erodes Cons [...]
Flash Report, ReportsOn 19th March 2019 TPG released its 1H19 results. Overall profit plunged to A$46.9mn compared to A$198.6mn 1HY18, though much of this was a result of the write down of its spectrum assets and small cells mobile network. The announcement was also the clearest indicator of TPG potentially no longer offering entry level A$60 per month NBN, echoing industry consensus that NBN pricing is unsustainable.
February 20, 2019Australian Telco Breakfast Roundtable: Five key discussion topics [...]
Flash Report, ReportsBackground- On 19 February 2018, Venture Insights conducted a telco industry breakfast roundtable (in Melbourne and Sydney) to discuss the following five key topics for 2019. The consensus view was that these topics are both inter-related and very dependent on government decisions and future policy. In that regard, Australia is seen as unique to the extent to which government policy has determined market structure in the telco industry.
- Will 5G leadership lead to market share gain and ARPU increases?
- Will 2019 be the year of take-off for fixed wireless broadband substitution?
- Will there be consolidation in the IoT market in 2019?
- Will the Government announce its NBN sale strategy in 2019?
- What will be the outcome of the proposed TPG – VHA merger?
Sector Telecom.February 7, 2019TPGs merger strategy must focus on potential merger undertakings [...]
Flash Report, ReportsThe ACCC has extended its decision time for the proposed TPG-VHA merger and has raised preliminary concerns that it will lead to a substantial lessening of competition. TPG has announced that it has ceased the rollout of its mobile network. Our report looks at the likelihood of whether the TPG/VHA merger will be approved given the potential no-merger test options which the ACCC could consider.ÂSector Telecom.
January 30, 2019TPG’s mobile announcement will shift focus to the ongoing compe [...]
Flash Report, ReportsTPGs decision to cease its mobile rollout reduces the prospects for a 4th mobile operator in Australia. The MVNO market is highly competitive in metro regions and looks set to become stronger. We expect the ACCC to turn its focus on the ongoing competitiveness of the MVNO market.Sector Telecom.
December 11, 20185G Update December 2018 – Telstra leading the race to 5G
Flash Report, ReportsQ4 2018 has been a busy time for 5G players with the government auctioning valuable spectrum bands and an update on Telstra’s progress on 5G. Australia is tracking well to have initial 5G services in 2019. This will enable strong growth in devices and mobile data consumption.
November 19, 2018Australian Mobile Telco Market Outlook
Market Outlook, ReportsThe Australian mobile market has been traditionally characterised as a mature market with steady growth driven by population growth and mobile broadband. However, this market is about to see strong innovation (5G) and disruption (TPG-Vodafone merger) in the next few years. We forecast the mobile market will remain the largest segment in the overall telco market with A$22.3bn in revenue by 2022. With the merger between TPG and Vodafone to form a third full service telco in the market, we expect the competitive intensity to increase with incumbents facing pricing and margin pressure from 2018-19 onwards. However, despite TPG’s aggressive initial pricing and service offering, at this stage we have been conservative in our estimates with respect to TPG-Vodafone’s impact on incumbent market shares as we expect a gradual subscriber take-up of the network over 2018-2022. The arrival of 5G and emergence of wireless access to the Internet as an alternative to fixed broadband means that the mobile market will continue to experience strong growth, with ARPUs steadying. Venture Insights believes that 5G coupled with IoT will enable the transition from a connectivity based revenue model to a services based revenue model for mobile operators.
November 15, 2018UBS Australasia Conference – 5G’s accelerating progress
Flash Report, ReportsVenture Insights attended the annual UBS Investors Conference for 2018 on 12th and 13th November, with a number of interesting panels across the two days. The participants of the 5G panel moderated by Venture Insights commented on the positive effects 5G will have on not just the telco industry but also verticals such as healthcare, transportation and manufacturing.November 12, 2018Radcomms 2018 & the upcoming 3.6GHz spectrum auctions
Flash Report, ReportsACMA’s premier conference Radcomms 2018 was held on October 30-31 with industry experts presenting and discussing a range of topical issues regarding spectrum regulation, new emerging trends and industry policies. Australia’s spectrum regulation should be fast tracked to enable telcos to deploy next generation technologies faster to consumers. We expect strong competition for spectrum in the upcoming 3.6GHz auction.
November 1, 2018Australian Telecommunications Market Outlook
Market Outlook, Reports- The introduction and the rollout of the NBN has been one of the key inflection points in the Australian telco market. However, as the rollout progresses, complaints continue and the tug-of war with RSPs over CVC charges continues. This discord has led to both major and smaller RSPs experiencing a tight squeeze on margins and opportunities for bypass options
- The Mobile segment continues its upward march but the market is about to see the impacts of a new wave of innovation (5G, IoT) and disruption (TPG Vodafone merger) in the next few years. This will severely impact fixed line broadband and nbn’s business case
- The merger between TPG and Vodafone will create a strong third MNO in Australia and long term competition and pricing pressure with Optus and Telstra
- Growth and broader acceptance in public cloud solutions is driving growth in the data markets as the corporate market is increasingly consolidating their voice, data and applications traffic
September 19, 2018TPG FY18 earnings update: Steady, as merger approaches
Focus Report, ReportsOn 18th September 2018, TPG announced its full FY18 financial results as an independent entity. Consumer performance has declined slightly, but TPG has extracted value out of its fibre assets in the corporate segment. Overall, the outlook for TPG is positive as it looks to utilise Vodafone’s mobile capabilities and branding to complement its own broadband strengths.
September 5, 2018High 5G consumer interest keeps pressure on network rollout
Flash Report, ReportsOperator positioning for 5G network plans in Australia and New Zealand continues to pick up pace – as Venture Insights’ latest consumer mobile survey demonstrates strong interest from Australian consumers. Leadership in 5G network rollout is likely to provide strong benefits from the acquisition of early adopters from competing networks.
August 31, 2018Consumers lose while the market wins: TPG and Vodafone merger
Focus Report, ReportsTPG and Vodafone announced the merging of the two companies to form a third major telco which will challenge leaders Telstra and Optus. This move is positive news for the market as the likelihood of a mobile price war is expected to be reduced, stabilising ARPUs and margins.Sector Telecom.
July 25, 2018Unlimited mobile data – not quite all you can eat…
Focus Report, ReportsMobile data usage in Australia is expected to increase 6x between 2017 to 2021, driven by advances in mobile technologies, increasing time spent on larger screen smartphones and rising video streaming on mobile. Unlimited mobile data plans have finally made their way to Australian shores, as Telcos look to counter the impact of rising competitive intensity.Sector Telecom.
May 10, 2018TPG mobile launch plans – there’s going to be data on the str [...]
Flash Report, ReportsWith an increasingly commoditised fixed market, the Australian mobile market is under attack as both margins and market share are under pressure. TPG is set to launch its mobile network with rock bottom introductory pricing for mobile data.$900.00
May 2, 2018Small Cells Part 1: Leveraging Public Infrastructure
Focus Report, ReportsRecent public infrastructure deals have demonstrated the joint benefits of combining smart city rollouts with mobile networks. Venture expects more infrastructure deals to be completed as governments recognise the clear public policy benefits and Telcos roll out 5G networks faster.
March 15, 2018Telco Roundtable Breakfast – key findings
Focus Report, ReportsAs identified by our survey, fixed-mobile substitution will be a growing risk for the fixed broadband market. Telcos need to understand and manage the risk of consumers switching away from fixed-line to mobile, particularly in light of the upcoming availability of 5G. The increasing consumption of SVOD has driven the growth in fixed broadband in recent years. However, changing viewing habits, particularly towards viewership on mobile devices, could help spearhead mobile substitution. We expect pressure on fixed broadband to grow as the combination of 5G network launches and TPG’s mobile market entry will increase consumer interest and options for wireless broadband solutions.
November 23, 2017Disruptive mobile business models – Is TPG going to be ‘Freeâ [...]
ReportsTPG plans to disrupt the A$18bn mobile market by launching its mobile network in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra by mid-2018 and build out its network to 80% of the population. It will deploy a small cell network across key metros, complemented by a traditional macro network. Free Mobile (France), 2degrees (New Zealand) and FreedomPop (US/Europe) have used disruptive business models to capture share from incumbents. Free Mobile and 2degrees captured about 18% and 23% of market share respectively, and FreedomPop has added approximately 2mn subscribers since launch. With four out of five key factors going in favour of TPG, a roaming deal will also likely accelerate market share gain. However, the incumbent MNOs in the Australian mobile market are already competing on price, coverage and data, and there are many MVNOs in the low ARPU prepaid segment offering competitive pricing and data
October 9, 2017Broadband pricing – more bang for your buck
Market Outlook, ReportsAs headline price competition continues to remain important, Australian RSPs are looking to other avenues to differentiate their broadband services. Data inclusions, media and bundles are emerging as the next frontier in the battle to capture greater share of the fixed broadband market for Australian RSPs.
July 28, 2017Mobile Telco Market Outlook
ReportsA mature mobile market with steady growth driven by a rising population is on the cusp of change with both innovation (5G) and disruption (TPG) just around the corner.
August 5, 2016NBN plans — Jockeying for position
ReportsWith the NBN now available to one sixth of Australian households, telecommunication carriers are battling aggressively for market share in the post-NBN world. Venture Insights has reviewed the NBN plans being offered by a cross-section of the five largest carriers to see what they tell us about the competitive landscape.
February 26, 2016Australian MVNOs – ‘Peak MVNO’ is here…
ReportsMVNOs have seen their market share grow in the last few years. However, we believe that we are now at ‘Peak MVNO’, thanks to rising costs, a declining price differential with MNOs and Vodafone’s return to growth. We forecast MVNO’s share to decline to 6.6% in 2020 from 8.3% currently, even as TPG outperforms by gaining share.
December 15, 2015NBN RSP Outlook –Australia’s next oligopoly
ReportsThe NBN was supposed to increase retail competition, but it is driving consolidation of the top 3-4 Retail Service Providers (RSPs). The margins of off-net players (ie M2, the old iiNet) will benefit, but on-net players and/or those over-weight Voice (ie Telstra, TPG) will be negatively impacted. We therefore believe the NBN journey is far from over with the risk that RSPs compete directly with the NBN.
October 23, 2015NBN – first million homes passed but a long way to go…
ReportsWhile we expect the NBN rollout to be delayed by 2-3 years, we forecast NBN revenues to grow at a 65% CAGR to reach A$2.0b by 2020. We believe revenues will be driven by subs growth (56% CAGR) with ARPU remaining flat, as we expect CVC charges to decrease in spite of internet traffic growth of 24% CAGR through to 2020. This report provides a deep dive into our NBN forecasts and assesses the key trends and drivers that are emerging as the NBN rollout gathers momentum.
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