Latest Reports
Latest Reports
Venture Insights reports inform and enable better decision making through independent, objective, and high quality insights, analysis and thought leadership across the media, digital and teleco industries in Australia and New Zealand and with global insight from our European partner, Enders.
Tech
All companies are impacted by the evolution of technology and the changes in consumer behaviour that it enables. Our reports explore macro tech trends such as blockchain, artificial intelligence, drones, robotics, to determine how different industries will be impacted.
Media
The pace of change in the media industry has reached unprecedented levels. Global challengers are disrupting long established incumbents and attracting sky high valuations.
Telco
The wireless data revolution and cloud service provision are transforming the telco sector. Ambitious companies are investing in infrastructure, device innovation and cloud solutions as demand continues to explode.
Energy
As the energy sector transitions from fossil fuels to renewables, technology is driving changes in generation, distribution, storage and consumption. We track the challengers, the impact on incumbents and the policy debate.
Health
Technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, wearables and apps, coupled with genomics and the personalisation of health, are transforming the consumption, provision and management of healthcare. This healthtech revolution is being driven by consumers and healthcare providers alike.
Fintech
Fintechs are transforming the financial services market. Established players are responding through a mix of investment and innovation. Our reports cover areas such as lending, neo-banks, payments, robo-advice, insurtech and blockchain.
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April 17, 2019Cinema market trends 2019 – Australia and New Zealand
Market Outlook, ReportsCinema revenues in Australia are projected to decline gradually over the next 5 years primarily due to cheaper substitutes on offer for consumers. Netflix has paved the way for cinema disruption and distributed 75 original films in 2018. Fellow disrupter MoviePass has continued to struggle due to an unprofitable business model.New
April 16, 2019Google and game streaming: double or quits
Market Outlook, ReportsGoogle’s Stadia promises the most credible game streaming service yet, but building a subscription bundle of top titles would require an all-out bet in the sector. Google is building its own game studios – to win over others it must overcome a troubled history in gaming, mitigating risks to developer business models and creative integrity. Games are much more technically demanding to stream than video, presenting an advantage to Google, Microsoft and Amazon – and a boost to telecoms network demand, welcomed by operators.
April 12, 2019Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: March 2019
Market Outlook, ReportsThe number of announced transactions in March is low relative to February. A number of companies raised capital for a range of purposes, which were well received by the market. The volatility in Lyft’s share price post listing has shown that the market has struggled to price Lyft due to a lack of comparable listed companies in similar sector.
April 10, 2019Mobile Sports Streaming, Gaming and E-sports: A revenue opportuni [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsThere’s been a lot of speculation in the market about the revenue upside for 5G operators. Our latest Australian consumer survey shows there is good 5G market awareness and that 18% of subscribers would consider paying a price premium for a better 5G network experience. Venture Insights believes a 5G product which allows subscribers to move to a separate 5G slice which provides enhanced data throughput would clearly work with the gaming and sports consumer segments and benefit the network provider if offered as a (for example) $5 - $10 monthly option. The risk is that if Telcos stick with AYCE and unlimited plans, then the platform operators (such as Google Stadia) will benefit from the cloud based gaming subscriptions and take advantage of a better 5G network
April 8, 2019The North heads south: European mobile in Q4 2018
Market Outlook, ReportsEuropean mobile service revenue growth dropped to -1.3% – its lowest level in three years – particularly disappointing as growth should be bouncing back post-EU roaming tariff cuts. Having enjoyed relatively favourable dynamics in 2018, the UK and Germany are facing marked changes in momentum from here. Regulation limiting intra-EU call prices could hit hard – up to 6% of revenues and 20% of EBITDA in the UK, although other EU countries may be less exposed due to lower tariffs currently.
April 5, 2019Apple’s showtime: everybody gets a service, partners get pennie [...]
Flash Report, ReportsApple is strengthening its household model by doubling down on family-friendly content subscriptions and payments. The model is reliant on hard bargains with mainly US partners, which risks sacrificing potential scale for a short-term boost in margin dollars. The new services offer glimpses of novel concepts, but stop short of taking risks to truly differentiate—a problem in TV, where Apple’s distribution advantage is slimmer than Oprah would have it.
April 4, 2019BBC Studios and Discovery in the UK: a new SVOD and the UKTV spli [...]
Flash Report, ReportsThe split of UKTV has been announced with the lifestyle channels going to Discovery, while the balance, along with the UKTV brand and VOD service, retained by the BBC, costing BBC Studios £173 million. In the same release, a new, global Discovery SVOD “powered” by BBC natural history and factual programming was announced, backed by a ten-year content partnership. The deal is a positive step for the BBC, which safeguards against flaky brand attribution internationally and the potential loss of revenues from Netflix, which is becoming more choosy when acquiring content.April 3, 2019eSports and Broadcasters – to TV or not to TV…
Flash Report, ReportseSports viewership and revenues have grown significantly in the past few years and look set to continue growing rapidly. The rapid growth and the much-coveted millennial viewer base has caught the eye of traditional broadcasters who are looking at ways to explore this new content genre. But has the eSports ‘gravy train’ already left the station?
April 2, 2019UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q4 2018
Market Outlook, ReportsMarket revenue growth accelerated to 3% in Q4, but it might never reach this level again, being helped by a never-to-be-repeated BT overlapping price rise. With price rises becoming more challenging in general, and superfast pricing under pressure in particular, maintaining/increasing ARPUs is becoming more difficult despite superfast volumes surging. Openreach’s ultrafast roll-out has accelerated, challenging Virgin Media and bringing the prospect of further price premia, but perhaps too late to be of significant benefit in 2019.
April 2, 2019Apple Card – allowing the fox into the henhouse…
Free Sample, ReportsIn the four years since Apple Pay was launched, major banks and retailers around the world have allowed customers to use their iPhones to make payments. On 25 March, Apple went one step further and announced its plans to release a digital-first credit card, Apple Card, partnering with global payments network MasterCard and investment bank Goldman Sachs.
April 1, 2019Expectations versus reality in data-driven healthcare – how [...]
Flash Report, ReportsOn 19 March 2019, Venture Insights conducted a health sector breakfast roundtable (in our Melbourne and Sydney offices) to discuss the topic “Expectations versus reality in data-driven healthcare – how do we solve the medical data conundrum?”. We had two speakers: Karn Ghosh, CEO and founder of health-tech firm Hit100, and Dr Sam Prince from the Sam Prince Group and broad discussions and healthy debate among our 35 attendees. We discussed the challenges faced by health-tech businesses that arise from the current siloed, unstructured nature of health data across the Australian healthcare industry and what can be done to improve the collection and sharing of health data for the benefit of both industry participants and patients. The consensus view was that governments, health service providers, communities, individuals and emerging health tech businesses would all play a role in improving the quality of data collected, how it is stored, shared, analysed and used. These improvements will help build trust and grow consumer confidence which in turn should lead to health system efficiency improvements and better health outcomes.
March 28, 2019UK mobile market Q4 2018: Headwinds gathering for 2019
Market Outlook, ReportsFollowing record growth last quarter, the UK mobile market took a step down to just 0.9% growth in the quarter to December on the back of increasing pressure in the business market and the impact of out-of-bundle limits. 2019 looks set to be a tough year for the sector with: a series of potentially painful regulatory hits; markedly lower price rises than last year; and early signs of a degree of creeping competitive intensity. We view 5G as a much-needed means of expanding capacity in the sector with upsides from M2M and IoT likely to remain relatively small.
March 27, 2019NBN update plus our views on sale options and timing
Flash Report, ReportsKey NBN 1H19 financials were roughly in line with expectations, but the growing number of Service Class 0 premises may be a threat to NBN’s activation targets, and an opportunity for bypass options such as fixed wireless. Given the upcoming federal election, what sale options and strategies could the Government consider in 2019?.March 22, 2019Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: February 2019
Monthly wrap, ReportsFebruary saw an increased level of market activity in comparison to January. The uncertainty around the TPG-VHA merger continues, with TPG is likely to write down the value of its spectrum licenses and mobile network assets in event the merger doesn’t get ACCC approval.
March 22, 2019BritBox’s muted arrival in the UK: ITV FY 2018 results
Flash Report, ReportsAfter the heights that Love Island and the World Cup took ITV to in H1, the broadcaster held on over the tougher last few months of 2018 to see growth in ad revenue (0.8%) and total viewing (linear and VOD, 3%). However, it was the announcement of the subscription video service BritBox—with the discussions around the “strategic partnership” with the BBC in its concluding phase—that garnered most interest. ITV’s investment in the service is modest when compared to its global competitors—up to £25 million in 2019, £40 million in 2020 and declining thereafter—but it is a prudent low-risk entry into what is an expanding but difficult market.
March 21, 2019TPG 1H19 – Business sector to be a key focus as NBN erodes Cons [...]
Flash Report, ReportsOn 19th March 2019 TPG released its 1H19 results. Overall profit plunged to A$46.9mn compared to A$198.6mn 1HY18, though much of this was a result of the write down of its spectrum assets and small cells mobile network. The announcement was also the clearest indicator of TPG potentially no longer offering entry level A$60 per month NBN, echoing industry consensus that NBN pricing is unsustainable.
March 20, 2019Virgin Media UK: proceeding with caution as speed advantage comes [...]
Flash Report, ReportsAfter strong underlying 2018 results, the more subdued outlook for 2019 is an important shift, driven by regulatory pressure on mobile, higher programming costs, one-offs and softening demand. Lightning is continuing to drive market share gains in new build areas, and should provide a 2ppt tailwind to revenue growth in 2019, but enhanced visibility on the economics of rollout suggests that its conservative approach is a wise one. In existing build areas, Virgin Media is facing-off pricing pressure from TalkTalk on high speed, and potentially from BT on even higher ultrafast speeds, with it moderating pricing and launching a market-beating 500Mbps product in Spring 2019 in response.
March 19, 2019UK online advertising: Brexit year forecast and trends
Market Outlook, ReportsUK online advertising spend continued its double-digit growth in 2018, up 11% to reach nearly £13bn in annual spend or 58% of the total advertising market, but a no-deal consumer downturn could nearly stop growth this year. Google, Facebook, Amazon, professional services firms and the largest marketing cloud companies are the biggest winners, while content media, media agencies and independent advertising technology firms languish. Self-regulation has improved as pressure mounts on advertising technology firms, but interventions by both privacy and competition authorities are now inevitable.
March 15, 2019TikTok’s challenge to Western social media
Flash Report, ReportsLaunched to the world in September 2017, TikTok is the first Chinese app to pose a serious threat to Western social media companies as it attracts hundreds of millions of Generation Z users around the globe. Privately-owned parent company Bytedance earned $7 billion in online advertising revenues in 2018 and is valued at $75 billion, placing it ahead of Uber as the world’s most valuable internet start-up, with an IPO likely this year. Bytedance’s goal of earning half its revenue outside China by 2022 is far from certain. In order to hit the target, TikTok will need to attain super scale with best-in-class revenue per user, an unlikely combination.
March 14, 2019Huawei and UK 5G: Identifying the risks
Market Outlook, ReportsGovernments and operators have come under increasing pressure to exclude Huawei’s 5G equipment from national networks, with justifications usually kept vague and wide-ranging rather than specific, and no evidence provided. Given the role of Huawei’s 5G equipment in the network and the extent of existing testing and checking, realistic security risks that apply to Huawei and not to all other equipment suppliers are hard to conceive. The risks of any ban are however very real; with Huawei one of only three global-scale telecoms equipment suppliers, and the preferred early choice for 5G radio equipment in the UK, removing this choice will massively increase costs and delay roll-outs of cutting-edge connectivity.Sector Telecom.Free
March 13, 2019Equity crowdfunding in Australia: We have lift-off
Free Sample, Market Outlook, ReportsEquity crowdfunding has been celebrated as a game-changing alternative to venture capital and traditional business loans but has until recently been off limits to most retail investors. With the lifting of Australian restrictions on who can use equity crowdfunding platforms, there is cautious uptake from consumers and start-ups – with several platforms establishing a clear lead – but the claim of outsize returns will take time to be tested.
March 12, 2019The future of UK video viewing: forecasts to 2028
Flash Report, ReportsLinear TV is still a mass market medium, watched by 90% of the UK population each week. However, our latest viewing forecasts predict broadcasters will account for two-thirds of all video viewing in 2028, down from c. 80% today, due to the relentless rise of online video services. Total viewing will continue to increase as more short-form content is squeezed into people’s days, particularly on portable devices, but the key battleground for eyeballs will remain the TV screen. The online shift has already had a huge impact among younger age groups, with only 55% of under-35s’ current viewing to broadcasters. Older audiences are slowly starting to follow suit, but have a long way to go.
March 11, 2019ACCC’s Digital Platforms Inquiry – more regulation on the hor [...]
Flash Report, ReportsGoogle and Facebook have made their submissions relating to the ACCC’s Digital Platforms Inquiry. Both tech giants have focused their attention on the ACCC’s recommendation for the need to establish an "algorithm" regulator. If implemented it will have major consequences to the tech giants and potentially other players.
March 8, 2019GDPR tested on Google, ad tech and Facebook
Flash Report, ReportsRecently issued regulator rulings on Google, ad tech companies and Facebook challenge prevailing online advertising practices of obtaining user consent under the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). Rulings from France on Google and ad tech partners of media owners called them out for inadequate disclosure to users, and excessive merging and processing of data. In a landmark precedent for Germany, the Federal Cartel Office found that Facebook lacked “freely given” consent from users, calling its terms “exploitative” and an abuse of its dominant position, also harming competitors.Free
March 7, 2019Mobile payments – New Zealand moving from cashless to walletles [...]
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsThe New Zealand payments ecosystem has seen considerable disruption in the last decade with new technologies, innovations and new industry players changing the way we pay. In particular, contactless payments has laid the foundation for mobile payments with consumers increasingly looking to ditch their cards and wallets in favour of digital wallets or mobile payment apps.
March 6, 2019Sports SVOD – Can Foxtel deliver a KO?
Flash Report, ReportsOf all the video content genres, sport has the best reputation for delivering audience reach and a large number of viewers for traditional TV operators. But the rise of Sports SVOD and OTT platforms is threatening to undermine the established order. Foxtel has launched its standalone sports streaming service – Kayo Sports and signed up 100,000 subscribers within the first 3 months of launch.March 4, 2019O2 UK delivering well on many, but not all, fronts
Flash Report, ReportsO2’s Q4 results delivered market-leading service revenue growth of 3%, double-digit EBITDA growth, sustained strong net adds and low churn. With ARPU service revenue growth flat, all of the growth came from other service revenue including M2M (machine-to-machine) and MVNO; a lumpy category up by more than 40%. Following a period of strong outperformance, O2 will face some challenges in 2019: some cost inflation to mitigate and the risk of a churn increase following December’s outage although experience suggests this is likely to be short-lived.Sector Telecom.March 4, 2019MWC – all very exciting but where’s the money?
Flash Report, ReportsThe combination of 5G, AI, IoT and big data were evangelised at MWC as generating massive scope for the transformation of multiple industries. That much is probably true, but it is the tech and consultancy companies who will likely receive the benefits, with connectivity revenue likely to be modest. For the operators, 5G brings more capacity much needed for hungry smartphone users, and perhaps the opportunity to transform themselves into a leaner operating model.
March 1, 2019The Next solution to ecommerce
Flash Report, ReportsConsumers have more shopping options than ever, forcing businesses to expand how and when they offer services. Online giants Amazon and Alibaba are adding physical retail to extend their routes to market. Omnichannel provides consumers an enhanced, seamless brand experience from research and discovery to purchase, delivery and after-sales, and allows businesses to react to changing consumer preferences more flexibly. Next is an omnichannel success story, introducing 48-hour home delivery in 1988 and online sales in 1999. Its market-leading fashion ecommerce business offers lessons on the future of retail.
March 1, 2019Vocus 1H19 earnings update: Losses in both Consumer and Business
Flash Report, ReportsOn 27th February Vocus announced its 1H19 earnings. Revenue increased slightly but EBITDA and profits remain on a downward trend. Consumer and business segments saw large declines in revenue and SIOs. In a year of “resetting”, Vocus faces the difficult challenge of extracting value out of its fibre assets through enterprise projects and transforming its Consumer segment with a renewed focus on mobile and wireless.Sector Telecom.
February 27, 2019The price is right for UK’s national newspapers
Flash Report, ReportsThe average cover price of national newspapers has risen by 58% since 2010, more than twice the CPI increase of 22%. Are publishers “shooting themselves in the foot” at a time when buyers and advertisers are defecting to online?. To settle this, we analysed all the cover price events by national titles between 2010 and 2018, which reveals the relative success of The Times when it has raised its price. For mid-market and popular titles, cover price hikes have on balance reduced circulation revenues and, by lowering reach, drained advertising revenue: a lose-lose scenario.Sector Media.
February 27, 2019oOh!media CY18 update: market outlook remains strong…
Flash Report, ReportsOn 25th February 2019, oOh!media reported its full year CY18 earnings update.Venture Insights forecasts strong growth for the OOH market. oOh!media reported strong earnings and looks set to benefit from the ongoing momentum in the OOH space albeit with some short-term slowdown due to the elections.Sector Media.
February 26, 2019Seven and Nine 1H19 update – increasing share in a declining ma [...]
Flash Report, ReportsSeven West Media and Nine Entertainment reported their 1HFY19 earnings last week. With a challenging environment for the core FTA business, traditional broadcasters must focus on improving audience share, driving new audience growth through digital content offerings and taking costs out of the business.Sector Media.
February 22, 2019BT Global Services: Playing a bad hand as well as it can
Flash Report, ReportsBTGS’s strategic plan seems like a sensible move in a very challenging market but it heralds its transition to a new operating model where its competitive advantage is largely eroded, its addressable market squeezed and it is arguably sub-scale. Although hybrid infrastructure and revenues from transition to cloud-based IT will provide something of a cushion, guidance and consensus forecasts are too optimistic in our view – cost-cutting plans are therefore likely deficient. Longer term, with IT services increasingly easy for corporates to manage themselves, diminished appetite for hybrid networks and global giants such as Amazon, Microsoft and Google squeezing out the middle-man, the space that BTGS occupies is likely to be considerably smaller.
February 22, 2019Time to create an addressable UK TV market
Flash Report, ReportsAddressable linear TV advertising, where precision-targeted ads overlay default linear ads, could enhance the TV proposition for advertisers, agencies and viewers, benefiting all broadcasters. In the context of dwindling linear viewing and rocketing online video ad spends, the adoption of Sky AdSmart and similar services on YouView and Freeview could take addressable TV ads from a sideshow to a pillar of revenue. Addressable linear is a bigger and more strategic prize for broadcasters than BVOD ads. Sky holds the key to wider adoption of its AdSmart platform if it can find a way – or a price – to bring ITV Sales and/or 4 Sales on board.February 21, 2019BT Q3 2018/19 results: Openreach stronger than it looks, but Cons [...]
Flash Report, ReportsBT’s Q3 results were a little mixed, with mobile particularly weak, but the company remains on track to meet/exceed its (fairly conservative) guidance for the current year, and hit (modest) consensus expectations for 2019/20. Openreach was very weak at the headline level (-9%), but stripping out an accounting effect and internal revenue the division grew by 2% by our estimates despite significant price cuts, and full fibre roll-out is progressing well. While Openreach should accelerate this year, Consumer will be hit by a price rise holiday and slowing mobile, with investors likely having to wait for existing sports rights contracts to play out to see significant profitability improvement.February 20, 2019Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: January 2019
Monthly wrap, ReportsJanuary was a rather quiet month in the Australian M&A space, with the ELMO Software/ BoxSuite’s binding sale agreement as the only major transaction. The launch of 5G networks in Australia continues with the results of the 3.6GHz spectrum auctions, though TPG will scale down its deployment due to the Huawei equipment ban.
February 20, 2019Australian Telco Breakfast Roundtable: Five key discussion topics [...]
Flash Report, ReportsBackground- On 19 February 2018, Venture Insights conducted a telco industry breakfast roundtable (in Melbourne and Sydney) to discuss the following five key topics for 2019. The consensus view was that these topics are both inter-related and very dependent on government decisions and future policy. In that regard, Australia is seen as unique to the extent to which government policy has determined market structure in the telco industry.
- Will 5G leadership lead to market share gain and ARPU increases?
- Will 2019 be the year of take-off for fixed wireless broadband substitution?
- Will there be consolidation in the IoT market in 2019?
- Will the Government announce its NBN sale strategy in 2019?
- What will be the outcome of the proposed TPG – VHA merger?
Sector Telecom.
February 19, 2019Domain 1HFY19 update: pricing power and depth penetration save th [...]
Flash Report, ReportsOn 15th February 2019, Domain reported its 1HFY19 earnings. Pricing power, depth penetration and adjacent businesses drove revenue growth in an otherwise tough housing market while weakness in print meant overall revenue growth was flat YoY.Sector Media.
February 18, 2019Telstra and Optus – nbn pain, falling ARPUs and the fight for 5 [...]
Flash Report, ReportsOn 14th February 2019 Optus and Telstra announced their latest earnings. Both revenue and earnings remained subdued as subscriber growth was offset by a slowdown in NBN migration payments, and continuing pressure on mobile ARPUs. 5G and Fixed Wireless remain key growth areas going forward.Sector Telecom.
February 15, 2019European pay-TV: Resilient in the face of SVOD’s growth
Market Outlook, ReportsAcross the EU4, pay-TV is proving resilient in the face of fast growing Netflix (with Amazon trailing), confirming the catalysts of cord-cutting in the US are not present on this side of the Atlantic. Domestic SVOD has little traction so far. France's pay-TV market seems likely to see consolidation. Meanwhile, Germany's OTT sector is ebullient, with incumbents bringing an array of new or enhanced offers to market. Italy has been left with a sole major pay-TV platform—Sky—following Mediaset's withdrawal, while Spain's providers, by and large, are enjoying continued growth in subscriptions driven by converged bundles and discounts.
February 14, 2019UK Cairncross: platforms intervention to save news
Flash Report, ReportsThe Cairncross Review has now reported on the tough question of “how to sustain production and distribution of high quality journalism in a rapidly changing technology environment”. New codes of conduct for the platforms and publishers are the Review’s key policy recommendation. In particular, the Review addresses the sustainability of public interest, including local, journalism. This news is important for democracy, but expensive to do well, not particularly popular and most sabotaged by an online ecosystem that rewards traffic over quality. This is a landmark public intervention, but implementation will be critical, even if there is no silver bullet – platforms, publishers and citizens need to rise to the challenge.Sector Media.Free
February 13, 2019AI in Insurance: Disruption Assured
Free Sample, Market Outlook, ReportsArtificial intelligence (AI) has enormous potential to disrupt across the data- and process-heavy insurance value chain. The growth of AI startups and adoption of (AI) by Australian insurers began in earnest over the last two years. The approach taken so far is one of collaboration rather than direct competition between incumbents and disruptors.
February 12, 2019Wobbles ahead for TalkTalk’s fine balancing act
Flash Report, ReportsTalkTalk is delivering on its subscriber and revenue growth targets but is straining to get there. Price rises such as a £4 ‘TV access fee’ look increasingly risky. Whilst migrating to discounted high-speed helps to deliver top-line growth, margins are c. 40% lower; an unwelcome dent to already negative cashflow and stressed leverage. Both TalkTalk’s focus on revenue growth in a tight market and fibre rollout plans look increasingly unaffordable; a more modest ambition of stable revenues might allow a healthier business model to unfold.Sector Telecom.
February 11, 2019REA Group 1HFY19 update: growth in a challenging environment
Flash Report, ReportsOn 8th February 2019, REA Group reports its 1HFY19 earnings. Core Australian business continues to drive earnings and revenue growth in spite of a tough macro environment but a write-down in the Asia business impacted earnings for 1HFY19.February 11, 2019UK TV set viewing trends: linear audiences tumble in 2018
Market Outlook, Reports2018 was another bad year for traditional TV set viewing of broadcast channels, with a 5% decline year-on-year—its steepest since 2011. The decline accelerated among most demographics, but particularly for 16-34s, down 13% YOY from their already relatively low levels of TV viewing. Unmatched use, which includes viewing to Netflix, Amazon and YouTube, continues to grow, up 16% YOY, with both linear viewing and unmatched use becoming increasingly solitary activities. While heavier linear TV viewers are accounting for a greater proportion of linear TV viewing, it is the lighter TV viewers that are accounting for a greater proportion of unmatched use. Within the broadcast ecosystem, ITV had the strongest 2018 thanks to the FIFA World Cup, more Coronation Street, and Love Island. Most other broadcasters struggled in terms of viewing share, but the maturity of the market means major shifts continue to be rare.February 7, 2019TPGs merger strategy must focus on potential merger undertakings [...]
Flash Report, ReportsThe ACCC has extended its decision time for the proposed TPG-VHA merger and has raised preliminary concerns that it will lead to a substantial lessening of competition. TPG has announced that it has ceased the rollout of its mobile network. Our report looks at the likelihood of whether the TPG/VHA merger will be approved given the potential no-merger test options which the ACCC could consider.Sector Telecom.February 6, 2019UK Retail news update for January 2019
Flash Report, ReportsThe volume of retail sales (excluding fuel) rose 2.6% for the year 2018, thanks to improved consumer sentiment on the back of the Royal Wedding, FIFA World Cup and warmer weather. With no special events in 2019, the environment for retailing will be bleaker, with or without no-deal Brexit. December retail sales volumes rose 1.7% year-on-year, less than half the pace of November, as consumers shifted spend to Black Friday/Cyber Monday. We predict the trend will amplify in 2019, as consumers increasingly target their spending on discounted products, with direct implications for the timing and nature of advertising. The value of retail sales (excluding fuel) was up 4% in 2018 as a whole, masking the tale of woe on the high street. Offline sales fell 1%, while online sales boomed, growing 14% in value, a structural trend for 2019.
February 6, 2019New Zealand Mobile Market Outlook
Market Outlook, ReportsThe New Zealand mobile market had been traditionally characterised as an oligopoly that is dominated by the prepaid segment with high prices, lack of product differentiation and low usage. However, this market is about to see a rise in competitive intensity driven by 2degrees’ move to gain share in the lucrative postpaid and business mobile segments. We believe Vodafone NZ is most at risk and could lose approximately 3% of its subscriber market share by 2022. The emergence of utility companies offering mobile products will also increase competition and create more “sticky” consumers. We forecast the mobile market will remain the largest segment in the telco market with NZ$3.2bn revenue by 2022.
February 5, 2019Why does Amazon sell the Echo?
Flash Report, ReportsSmart speakers like the Amazon Echo and Google Home accelerated their prodigious rate of adoption in Q4 2018, and we expect they will soon be in 20% of UK homes. Amazon and Google price devices low to drive adoption to mass-market levels and win the race to own the home, in contrast to Apple’s profit-making strategy for its speaker. Echo’s main strategic benefits to Amazon are the scope for data collection and the intelligence it supports, and gatekeeping partners’ access to customers.Sector Technology.-
April 2, 2019
Apple Card – allowing the fox into the henhouse…
Free Sample, ReportsIn the four years since Apple Pay was launched, major banks and retailers around the world have allowed customers to use their iPhones to make payments. On 25 March, Apple went one step further and announced its plans to release a digital-first credit card, Apple Card, partnering with global payments network MasterCard and investment bank Goldman Sachs.FreeMarch 13, 2019Equity crowdfunding in Australia: We have lift-off
Free Sample, Market Outlook, ReportsEquity crowdfunding has been celebrated as a game-changing alternative to venture capital and traditional business loans but has until recently been off limits to most retail investors. With the lifting of Australian restrictions on who can use equity crowdfunding platforms, there is cautious uptake from consumers and start-ups – with several platforms establishing a clear lead – but the claim of outsize returns will take time to be tested.FreeMarch 7, 2019Mobile payments – New Zealand moving from cashless to walletles [...]
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsThe New Zealand payments ecosystem has seen considerable disruption in the last decade with new technologies, innovations and new industry players changing the way we pay. In particular, contactless payments has laid the foundation for mobile payments with consumers increasingly looking to ditch their cards and wallets in favour of digital wallets or mobile payment apps.FreeFebruary 13, 2019AI in Insurance: Disruption Assured
Free Sample, Market Outlook, ReportsArtificial intelligence (AI) has enormous potential to disrupt across the data- and process-heavy insurance value chain. The growth of AI startups and adoption of (AI) by Australian insurers began in earnest over the last two years. The approach taken so far is one of collaboration rather than direct competition between incumbents and disruptors.Free
January 29, 2019AI in Financial Services: Who wins the future of banking?
Free Sample, Market Outlook, ReportsFinancial services are ripe for AI disruption; they are data-heavy, with significant potential for automation. The question is not if, but how fast, and how profoundly, would AI reshape the competitive landscape. In Australia, the AI ecosystem is exciting, but has yet to reach critical mass.Free
January 16, 2019Disruption in Australian Super: Only skin deep?
Focus Report, Free Sample, ReportsAustralia’s superannuation system is broadly admired. Disruptive entrants have thus far focused on user experience, ethical alignment and branding rather than fees or performance. However, regulatory change will drive significant shifts in the industry in the coming years.Free
October 30, 2018Neobanks – The David against banking Goliaths?
Focus Report, Free Sample, ReportsThe banking industry has traditionally displayed inertia to major disruption and innovation. With the rise of neobanks in Europe and the UK, and the arrival of Australia’s first neobanks; Volt, Xinja and 86 400, this may be set to change as the younger generation of customers increasingly adopt more digital and customer-centric banking services.$0.00Free
October 2, 2018Mobile payments – Australia moving from cashless to walletless?
Free Sample, ReportsThe Australian payments ecosystem has seen considerable disruption in the last decade with new technologies, innovations and new industry players changing the way we pay. In particular, contactless payments has laid the foundation for mobile payments with consumers increasingly looking to ditch their cards and wallets in favour of digital wallets or mobile payment apps.$0.00Free
July 6, 2018Westpac leads the Fintech investment charge
Focus Report, Free Sample, ReportsAustralia’s largest banks have been very active in the fintech market. This report explores the investments that they have made and considers their contrasting approaches to those investments.$0.00Free
April 24, 2018AltFi Conference 2018 – Growth with transparency
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsVenture Insights attended the annual AltFi Australasian Conference on April 15th 2018. The key takeaway from the conference was that the Fintech Industry in Australia is growing at a fast rate and the industry is optimistic about the Federal Government’s Open Banking initiative.$0.00Free
April 17, 2018IoT & Cryptocurrency Mining: Cyber Security Update
Focus Report, Free Sample, ReportsThe Internet of Things represents a significant and growing target area for cyber criminals. The growth in cryptocurrencies is focussing cyber criminals on the benefits of crypto-mining malware. Individuals, businesses and governments need to include IoT related cyber risks in their security controls and plans.Free
September 21, 2017The growth of Insurtech – Insurance companies should be worried
Focus Report, Free Sample, ReportsIn terms of new global investment, Insurtech has been one of the fastest growing Fintech segments over the last eighteen months – and it is now starting to pick up pace in Australia. This report explains what Insurtech is and why it matters.Free
August 16, 2017Follow the Money
Focus Report, Free Sample, ReportsAustralia’s VC market continued to advance, with over US$670m of investments made in FY17. Investments were supported by favourable economic and business conditions and record-high fundraising activities.$0.00Free
July 14, 2017Lending Disruption – Fact or fiction?
Free Sample, ReportsThe big four banking oligopoly have had a highly profitable run over the last five years. During this time start-ups have emerged to challenge the dominance of the banks in both consumer lending and business lending markets. Whilst the challengers are growing and gaining traction, the odds are still stacked against many of them. Will they survive and what are the likely outcomes?
Free
May 25, 2017Disruption in Payments: Time to throw out your wallet?
Free Sample, ReportsAs the usage of cash declines, we are trending towards a cashless society supported by new payment technologies.Within the next decade, cashless methods will be preferred, and have mostly positive implications for both businesses and consumers.However, cash will still be with us and being used for well over the next 20 years.
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May 17, 2017A$1bn at stake for fund managers from Robo-Advice disruption
Free Sample, ReportsRobo-advice can offer a lower cost structure, similar financial results and greater transparency over traditional asset managers and is going to have a significant impact on the wealth management industry.
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April 1, 2019
Expectations versus reality in data-driven healthcare – how [...]
Flash Report, ReportsOn 19 March 2019, Venture Insights conducted a health sector breakfast roundtable (in our Melbourne and Sydney offices) to discuss the topic “Expectations versus reality in data-driven healthcare – how do we solve the medical data conundrum?”. We had two speakers: Karn Ghosh, CEO and founder of health-tech firm Hit100, and Dr Sam Prince from the Sam Prince Group and broad discussions and healthy debate among our 35 attendees. We discussed the challenges faced by health-tech businesses that arise from the current siloed, unstructured nature of health data across the Australian healthcare industry and what can be done to improve the collection and sharing of health data for the benefit of both industry participants and patients. The consensus view was that governments, health service providers, communities, individuals and emerging health tech businesses would all play a role in improving the quality of data collected, how it is stored, shared, analysed and used. These improvements will help build trust and grow consumer confidence which in turn should lead to health system efficiency improvements and better health outcomes.Free
November 28, 2018Telemedicine and AI Outlook in Primary Care
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsIn this report, we provide a brief overview of ‘telemedicine’ including a 2035 forecast of the impact of telehealth tools, both human and artificial intelligence, in relation to ‘unreferred medical services’2 in the primary health market. This report does not assess or analyse the full potential for telemedicine which derives from other applications, such as remote surgical operations, sharing of digital health records or remote patient monitoring. These activities clearly would have significant additional benefits to the those explored in this report. The report outlines the importance of primary care in shaping Australian health and seizing ever-increasing health costs.Free
November 27, 2018Telemedicine in Australia
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsIn this report, we provide a brief overview of ‘telemedicine’ and business models associated with provision of telemedicine services along with barriers that may slow down adoption of the online tool. Venture Insights believes that telemedicine will play an important tool in scoping the primary care in Australia- changing the way GPs deliver their services. We believe that the inefficiencies in healthcare, growing health costs and rising demand for quality care lead to a rising need for disruption: tools that can reduce costs while driving access to care.Free
November 2, 2018AI and Genomics in Healthcare
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsGiven the unsustainability of health expenditure growth rates, we explore how AI and genomics might assist Australia to achieve higher quality health services at lower costs. We provide a definition and analyse main drivers and impacts of implementing AI and genomics in medicine.Free
February 19, 2018Top Australian Healthcare Tech trends to watch in 2018
Flash Report, Free Sample, Reports$0.00Digital and mobile technologies are providing the foundation for many emerging healthcare innovations that are disrupting the Australian healthcare market. To keep pace with this continuous transformation, healthcare operators will need to embrace new technologies to improve health outcomes, be cost effective and provide timely care.
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October 11, 2017Game of Genomes – decoding the future of healthcare
Free Sample, ReportsMainstream genomics is still nascent but further decline in sequencing costs will drive adoption. Unprecedented intelligence (i.e. big data) involving the genotypic and phenotypic data of individuals will completely reengineer our health system over the next decade. Genomics is a game changer that will reshape not only the clinical health system but also our personal wellness and lifestyle decisions.Free
September 6, 2017National Digital Health Strategy – one byte at a time
Free Sample, ReportsIt’s time to move on from relying on doctors’ memories and the pulling together of fragmented information from across the health system. The National Digital Health Strategy outlines the transformation of the Australian healthcare system from a paper-based records system to a digital one that ensures the right information, at the right place and at the right time.$0.00Free
August 10, 2017Disruption in Aged Care – Rise of the Silver Surfer
Free Sample, ReportsAustralia is in the early stages of a ‘silver tsunami’ that will play out over the next three decades. Like its population, the aged care industry is getting long in the tooth and the convergence of an ageing population, aged care reforms, evolving business models and technological disruption is about to reshape multiple areas of the aged care ecosystem.Free
November 6, 2015Disruption In – Disruption is good for health
Free Sample, ReportsOur proprietary Disruption Framework has identified the Healthcare industry as vulnerable to disruption. We estimate that A$23b of A$130b (revenue) is susceptible to disruption with a proportion of this at risk with big data in eHealth, point of care testing and mHealth emerging as the key disruptive trends. We believe Telstra will lead the disruption in healthcare.
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January 23, 2018Wind Farms – Adding wind to Australia’s energy sails
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsWind energy already accounts for 30 percent of renewable generation and over 5 percent of total electricity generation in Australia. Falling development and generation costs will drive the growth of wind as an energy source into the future.$0.00 -
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November 6, 2017Green Hydrogen – Opportunity or hype?
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsHydrogen as an energy carrier has long been discussed as a pathway to a greener future and although technology progress has been slow, recent developments point to tangible progress.Diversity of sources, security and flexibility within Australia’s energy system is the key to a reliable energy future; hydrogen could play an important role alongside other energy technologies. -
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October 13, 2017Energy Roundtable Breakfast – key findings
Focus Report, Free Sample, ReportsWhat will Australia’s energy future look like in 2030? Will it be business as usual? …… a utopian renewable energy reliant world? …… one powered by nuclear? …… or one with high technological consumption control?
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September 13, 2017AEMO Report – exacerbating our issues not finding solutions
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsAEMO’s report to the Government appropriately highlights the risks to the NEM following closure of key dispatchable capacity. However, the report and the Government’s reaction adds to the hysteria rather than addressing policy that provides incentives to invest in appropriate generation assets.$0.00 -
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August 30, 2017‘Charging’ ahead – Five key trends reshaping the electricit [...]
Free Sample, ReportsThe traditional electricity industry is under significant pressure as rapid advances in technology are upending the electricity value chain. Disruption in electricity is no longer an ‘if’. Think when, how fast and how big. Batteries, renewables, prosumers and distributed electricity systems, electric vehicles and the Internet of Energy are the key trends leading the charge.$0.00 -
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August 4, 2017Residential rooftop solar set to soar
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsSolar rooftop economics are approaching a tipping point. Not only does electricity generated from residential rooftop solar households reduce greenhouse gas emissions, recent market trends indicate residential rooftop solar is the solution for households to withstand increasing electricity prices. -
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July 18, 2017Disruption in Electricity – an electrifying start to a sunny fu [...]
Free Sample, ReportsWith the appropriate political and regulatory support and after years in the wilderness Australia now approaches a period of rapid change to the way in which it produces and consumes energy. This will mark the end of a ‘lazy’ era of burning fossil fuels and propel Australia’s energy sector toward being regarded as highly innovative with the ability to export our innovation and skills.
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June 21, 2017The Finkel Review – A politically acceptable outcome for no [...]
Free Sample, ReportsThe Finkel review has been released and appears to have come up with a ‘politically acceptable’ solution. However, even if all the recommendations are accepted, the future impact on the electricity market is far from certain. Human behaviour and the declining cost of renewables will have a more profound effect than the Finkel review suggests in its modelling.
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June 21, 2017Snowy Hydro 2.0: Good but not enough?
Free Sample, ReportsSnowy Hydro 2.0 has been proposed by the Federal Government to alleviate the Australian Energy Crisis. Will it be the golden solution they hoped for, or should the government consider alternative investments to allow a more effective or timely solution?
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April 19, 2017Batteries have become the mainstream solution to the energy crisi [...]
Free Sample, ReportsFollowing the blackouts in South Australia, a strong debate around the future of electricity has been sparked within both the state and national governments. We take a closer look at this debate, summarise the causes, consequences and likely outcomes, whilst discussing the impact to the wider Australian energy market. -
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February 15, 2017Towards Australia’s Smart Energy Future
Free Sample, ReportsAs technological developments continue Smart Energy is increasingly being adopted by the government, businesses and consumers in order to address climate issues and cut energy costs. We discuss the uptake of Smart Energy within Australia including the key technologies, government incentives driving uptake and the anticipated disruption from future changes.
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NewApril 16, 2019
Google and game streaming: double or quits
Market Outlook, ReportsGoogle’s Stadia promises the most credible game streaming service yet, but building a subscription bundle of top titles would require an all-out bet in the sector. Google is building its own game studios – to win over others it must overcome a troubled history in gaming, mitigating risks to developer business models and creative integrity. Games are much more technically demanding to stream than video, presenting an advantage to Google, Microsoft and Amazon – and a boost to telecoms network demand, welcomed by operators.April 12, 2019Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: March 2019
Market Outlook, ReportsThe number of announced transactions in March is low relative to February. A number of companies raised capital for a range of purposes, which were well received by the market. The volatility in Lyft’s share price post listing has shown that the market has struggled to price Lyft due to a lack of comparable listed companies in similar sector.April 10, 2019Mobile Sports Streaming, Gaming and E-sports: A revenue opportuni [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsThere’s been a lot of speculation in the market about the revenue upside for 5G operators. Our latest Australian consumer survey shows there is good 5G market awareness and that 18% of subscribers would consider paying a price premium for a better 5G network experience. Venture Insights believes a 5G product which allows subscribers to move to a separate 5G slice which provides enhanced data throughput would clearly work with the gaming and sports consumer segments and benefit the network provider if offered as a (for example) $5 - $10 monthly option. The risk is that if Telcos stick with AYCE and unlimited plans, then the platform operators (such as Google Stadia) will benefit from the cloud based gaming subscriptions and take advantage of a better 5G networkApril 5, 2019Apple’s showtime: everybody gets a service, partners get pennie [...]
Flash Report, ReportsApple is strengthening its household model by doubling down on family-friendly content subscriptions and payments. The model is reliant on hard bargains with mainly US partners, which risks sacrificing potential scale for a short-term boost in margin dollars. The new services offer glimpses of novel concepts, but stop short of taking risks to truly differentiate—a problem in TV, where Apple’s distribution advantage is slimmer than Oprah would have it.April 3, 2019eSports and Broadcasters – to TV or not to TV…
Flash Report, ReportseSports viewership and revenues have grown significantly in the past few years and look set to continue growing rapidly. The rapid growth and the much-coveted millennial viewer base has caught the eye of traditional broadcasters who are looking at ways to explore this new content genre. But has the eSports ‘gravy train’ already left the station?April 2, 2019Apple Card – allowing the fox into the henhouse…
Free Sample, ReportsIn the four years since Apple Pay was launched, major banks and retailers around the world have allowed customers to use their iPhones to make payments. On 25 March, Apple went one step further and announced its plans to release a digital-first credit card, Apple Card, partnering with global payments network MasterCard and investment bank Goldman Sachs.March 22, 2019Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: February 2019
Monthly wrap, ReportsFebruary saw an increased level of market activity in comparison to January. The uncertainty around the TPG-VHA merger continues, with TPG is likely to write down the value of its spectrum licenses and mobile network assets in event the merger doesn’t get ACCC approval.March 15, 2019TikTok’s challenge to Western social media
Flash Report, ReportsLaunched to the world in September 2017, TikTok is the first Chinese app to pose a serious threat to Western social media companies as it attracts hundreds of millions of Generation Z users around the globe. Privately-owned parent company Bytedance earned $7 billion in online advertising revenues in 2018 and is valued at $75 billion, placing it ahead of Uber as the world’s most valuable internet start-up, with an IPO likely this year. Bytedance’s goal of earning half its revenue outside China by 2022 is far from certain. In order to hit the target, TikTok will need to attain super scale with best-in-class revenue per user, an unlikely combination.FreeMarch 13, 2019Equity crowdfunding in Australia: We have lift-off
Free Sample, Market Outlook, ReportsEquity crowdfunding has been celebrated as a game-changing alternative to venture capital and traditional business loans but has until recently been off limits to most retail investors. With the lifting of Australian restrictions on who can use equity crowdfunding platforms, there is cautious uptake from consumers and start-ups – with several platforms establishing a clear lead – but the claim of outsize returns will take time to be tested.March 11, 2019ACCC’s Digital Platforms Inquiry – more regulation on the hor [...]
Flash Report, ReportsGoogle and Facebook have made their submissions relating to the ACCC’s Digital Platforms Inquiry. Both tech giants have focused their attention on the ACCC’s recommendation for the need to establish an "algorithm" regulator. If implemented it will have major consequences to the tech giants and potentially other players.March 8, 2019GDPR tested on Google, ad tech and Facebook
Flash Report, ReportsRecently issued regulator rulings on Google, ad tech companies and Facebook challenge prevailing online advertising practices of obtaining user consent under the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). Rulings from France on Google and ad tech partners of media owners called them out for inadequate disclosure to users, and excessive merging and processing of data. In a landmark precedent for Germany, the Federal Cartel Office found that Facebook lacked “freely given” consent from users, calling its terms “exploitative” and an abuse of its dominant position, also harming competitors.FreeMarch 7, 2019Mobile payments – New Zealand moving from cashless to walletles [...]
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsThe New Zealand payments ecosystem has seen considerable disruption in the last decade with new technologies, innovations and new industry players changing the way we pay. In particular, contactless payments has laid the foundation for mobile payments with consumers increasingly looking to ditch their cards and wallets in favour of digital wallets or mobile payment apps.March 4, 2019MWC – all very exciting but where’s the money?
Flash Report, ReportsThe combination of 5G, AI, IoT and big data were evangelised at MWC as generating massive scope for the transformation of multiple industries. That much is probably true, but it is the tech and consultancy companies who will likely receive the benefits, with connectivity revenue likely to be modest. For the operators, 5G brings more capacity much needed for hungry smartphone users, and perhaps the opportunity to transform themselves into a leaner operating model.February 20, 2019Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: January 2019
Monthly wrap, ReportsJanuary was a rather quiet month in the Australian M&A space, with the ELMO Software/ BoxSuite’s binding sale agreement as the only major transaction. The launch of 5G networks in Australia continues with the results of the 3.6GHz spectrum auctions, though TPG will scale down its deployment due to the Huawei equipment ban.FreeFebruary 13, 2019AI in Insurance: Disruption Assured
Free Sample, Market Outlook, ReportsArtificial intelligence (AI) has enormous potential to disrupt across the data- and process-heavy insurance value chain. The growth of AI startups and adoption of (AI) by Australian insurers began in earnest over the last two years. The approach taken so far is one of collaboration rather than direct competition between incumbents and disruptors.February 5, 2019Why does Amazon sell the Echo?
Flash Report, ReportsSmart speakers like the Amazon Echo and Google Home accelerated their prodigious rate of adoption in Q4 2018, and we expect they will soon be in 20% of UK homes. Amazon and Google price devices low to drive adoption to mass-market levels and win the race to own the home, in contrast to Apple’s profit-making strategy for its speaker. Echo’s main strategic benefits to Amazon are the scope for data collection and the intelligence it supports, and gatekeeping partners’ access to customers.Sector Technology.FreeJanuary 29, 2019AI in Financial Services: Who wins the future of banking?
Free Sample, Market Outlook, ReportsFinancial services are ripe for AI disruption; they are data-heavy, with significant potential for automation. The question is not if, but how fast, and how profoundly, would AI reshape the competitive landscape. In Australia, the AI ecosystem is exciting, but has yet to reach critical mass.January 21, 2019UK advertising spend: Brexit year forecasts
Market Outlook, ReportsOur central case forecast with orderly EU withdrawal predicts 2.7% growth for total UK advertising spend, down from 4.7% in 2018. We have a no-deal Brexit scenario that predicts a smaller advertising recession than in 2009, with total ad spend declining 3% and display down 5.3% in 2019. The total advertising figures partly mask the pressure on UK consumers, through an expansion of the measured advertising spend universe. This is due to significant self-serve online advertising growth by SMEs, and non-advertising marketing budgets moving to online advertising platforms. In a downturn, we’d expect advertisers to become more tactical, which would disproportionally affect display media including TV, which is further affected by declining commercial impacts among younger adults. Search and social advertising would see only small growth through the first year of a recession.January 17, 2019Apple and Amazon bury the hatchet
Flash Report, ReportsAmazon’s recent deals with Apple in TV, music and device sales mark a turning point after a decade of frosty relations. The context for this involves shifting priorities at both firms, growing pressure on Apple’s iPhone business, and rivals in common — first and foremost Google, but also the likes of Netflix and Spotify. The uneasy alliance helps both companies consolidate their strengths in the platform competition over media and the connected home — but trouble already brews.FreeJanuary 16, 2019Disruption in Australian Super: Only skin deep?
Focus Report, Free Sample, ReportsAustralia’s superannuation system is broadly admired. Disruptive entrants have thus far focused on user experience, ethical alignment and branding rather than fees or performance. However, regulatory change will drive significant shifts in the industry in the coming years.-
NewApril 17, 2019
Cinema market trends 2019 – Australia and New Zealand
Market Outlook, ReportsCinema revenues in Australia are projected to decline gradually over the next 5 years primarily due to cheaper substitutes on offer for consumers. Netflix has paved the way for cinema disruption and distributed 75 original films in 2018. Fellow disrupter MoviePass has continued to struggle due to an unprofitable business model.NewApril 16, 2019Google and game streaming: double or quits
Market Outlook, ReportsGoogle’s Stadia promises the most credible game streaming service yet, but building a subscription bundle of top titles would require an all-out bet in the sector. Google is building its own game studios – to win over others it must overcome a troubled history in gaming, mitigating risks to developer business models and creative integrity. Games are much more technically demanding to stream than video, presenting an advantage to Google, Microsoft and Amazon – and a boost to telecoms network demand, welcomed by operators.April 12, 2019Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: March 2019
Market Outlook, ReportsThe number of announced transactions in March is low relative to February. A number of companies raised capital for a range of purposes, which were well received by the market. The volatility in Lyft’s share price post listing has shown that the market has struggled to price Lyft due to a lack of comparable listed companies in similar sector.April 10, 2019Mobile Sports Streaming, Gaming and E-sports: A revenue opportuni [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsThere’s been a lot of speculation in the market about the revenue upside for 5G operators. Our latest Australian consumer survey shows there is good 5G market awareness and that 18% of subscribers would consider paying a price premium for a better 5G network experience. Venture Insights believes a 5G product which allows subscribers to move to a separate 5G slice which provides enhanced data throughput would clearly work with the gaming and sports consumer segments and benefit the network provider if offered as a (for example) $5 - $10 monthly option. The risk is that if Telcos stick with AYCE and unlimited plans, then the platform operators (such as Google Stadia) will benefit from the cloud based gaming subscriptions and take advantage of a better 5G networkApril 5, 2019Apple’s showtime: everybody gets a service, partners get pennie [...]
Flash Report, ReportsApple is strengthening its household model by doubling down on family-friendly content subscriptions and payments. The model is reliant on hard bargains with mainly US partners, which risks sacrificing potential scale for a short-term boost in margin dollars. The new services offer glimpses of novel concepts, but stop short of taking risks to truly differentiate—a problem in TV, where Apple’s distribution advantage is slimmer than Oprah would have it.April 4, 2019BBC Studios and Discovery in the UK: a new SVOD and the UKTV spli [...]
Flash Report, ReportsThe split of UKTV has been announced with the lifestyle channels going to Discovery, while the balance, along with the UKTV brand and VOD service, retained by the BBC, costing BBC Studios £173 million. In the same release, a new, global Discovery SVOD “powered” by BBC natural history and factual programming was announced, backed by a ten-year content partnership. The deal is a positive step for the BBC, which safeguards against flaky brand attribution internationally and the potential loss of revenues from Netflix, which is becoming more choosy when acquiring content.April 3, 2019eSports and Broadcasters – to TV or not to TV…
Flash Report, ReportseSports viewership and revenues have grown significantly in the past few years and look set to continue growing rapidly. The rapid growth and the much-coveted millennial viewer base has caught the eye of traditional broadcasters who are looking at ways to explore this new content genre. But has the eSports ‘gravy train’ already left the station?March 22, 2019Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: February 2019
Monthly wrap, ReportsFebruary saw an increased level of market activity in comparison to January. The uncertainty around the TPG-VHA merger continues, with TPG is likely to write down the value of its spectrum licenses and mobile network assets in event the merger doesn’t get ACCC approval.March 22, 2019BritBox’s muted arrival in the UK: ITV FY 2018 results
Flash Report, ReportsAfter the heights that Love Island and the World Cup took ITV to in H1, the broadcaster held on over the tougher last few months of 2018 to see growth in ad revenue (0.8%) and total viewing (linear and VOD, 3%). However, it was the announcement of the subscription video service BritBox—with the discussions around the “strategic partnership” with the BBC in its concluding phase—that garnered most interest. ITV’s investment in the service is modest when compared to its global competitors—up to £25 million in 2019, £40 million in 2020 and declining thereafter—but it is a prudent low-risk entry into what is an expanding but difficult market.March 19, 2019UK online advertising: Brexit year forecast and trends
Market Outlook, ReportsUK online advertising spend continued its double-digit growth in 2018, up 11% to reach nearly £13bn in annual spend or 58% of the total advertising market, but a no-deal consumer downturn could nearly stop growth this year. Google, Facebook, Amazon, professional services firms and the largest marketing cloud companies are the biggest winners, while content media, media agencies and independent advertising technology firms languish. Self-regulation has improved as pressure mounts on advertising technology firms, but interventions by both privacy and competition authorities are now inevitable.March 15, 2019TikTok’s challenge to Western social media
Flash Report, ReportsLaunched to the world in September 2017, TikTok is the first Chinese app to pose a serious threat to Western social media companies as it attracts hundreds of millions of Generation Z users around the globe. Privately-owned parent company Bytedance earned $7 billion in online advertising revenues in 2018 and is valued at $75 billion, placing it ahead of Uber as the world’s most valuable internet start-up, with an IPO likely this year. Bytedance’s goal of earning half its revenue outside China by 2022 is far from certain. In order to hit the target, TikTok will need to attain super scale with best-in-class revenue per user, an unlikely combination.March 12, 2019The future of UK video viewing: forecasts to 2028
Flash Report, ReportsLinear TV is still a mass market medium, watched by 90% of the UK population each week. However, our latest viewing forecasts predict broadcasters will account for two-thirds of all video viewing in 2028, down from c. 80% today, due to the relentless rise of online video services. Total viewing will continue to increase as more short-form content is squeezed into people’s days, particularly on portable devices, but the key battleground for eyeballs will remain the TV screen. The online shift has already had a huge impact among younger age groups, with only 55% of under-35s’ current viewing to broadcasters. Older audiences are slowly starting to follow suit, but have a long way to go.March 11, 2019ACCC’s Digital Platforms Inquiry – more regulation on the hor [...]
Flash Report, ReportsGoogle and Facebook have made their submissions relating to the ACCC’s Digital Platforms Inquiry. Both tech giants have focused their attention on the ACCC’s recommendation for the need to establish an "algorithm" regulator. If implemented it will have major consequences to the tech giants and potentially other players.March 8, 2019GDPR tested on Google, ad tech and Facebook
Flash Report, ReportsRecently issued regulator rulings on Google, ad tech companies and Facebook challenge prevailing online advertising practices of obtaining user consent under the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). Rulings from France on Google and ad tech partners of media owners called them out for inadequate disclosure to users, and excessive merging and processing of data. In a landmark precedent for Germany, the Federal Cartel Office found that Facebook lacked “freely given” consent from users, calling its terms “exploitative” and an abuse of its dominant position, also harming competitors.March 6, 2019Sports SVOD – Can Foxtel deliver a KO?
Flash Report, ReportsOf all the video content genres, sport has the best reputation for delivering audience reach and a large number of viewers for traditional TV operators. But the rise of Sports SVOD and OTT platforms is threatening to undermine the established order. Foxtel has launched its standalone sports streaming service – Kayo Sports and signed up 100,000 subscribers within the first 3 months of launch.March 1, 2019The Next solution to ecommerce
Flash Report, ReportsConsumers have more shopping options than ever, forcing businesses to expand how and when they offer services. Online giants Amazon and Alibaba are adding physical retail to extend their routes to market. Omnichannel provides consumers an enhanced, seamless brand experience from research and discovery to purchase, delivery and after-sales, and allows businesses to react to changing consumer preferences more flexibly. Next is an omnichannel success story, introducing 48-hour home delivery in 1988 and online sales in 1999. Its market-leading fashion ecommerce business offers lessons on the future of retail.February 27, 2019The price is right for UK’s national newspapers
Flash Report, ReportsThe average cover price of national newspapers has risen by 58% since 2010, more than twice the CPI increase of 22%. Are publishers “shooting themselves in the foot” at a time when buyers and advertisers are defecting to online?. To settle this, we analysed all the cover price events by national titles between 2010 and 2018, which reveals the relative success of The Times when it has raised its price. For mid-market and popular titles, cover price hikes have on balance reduced circulation revenues and, by lowering reach, drained advertising revenue: a lose-lose scenario.Sector Media.February 27, 2019oOh!media CY18 update: market outlook remains strong…
Flash Report, ReportsOn 25th February 2019, oOh!media reported its full year CY18 earnings update.Venture Insights forecasts strong growth for the OOH market. oOh!media reported strong earnings and looks set to benefit from the ongoing momentum in the OOH space albeit with some short-term slowdown due to the elections.Sector Media.February 26, 2019Seven and Nine 1H19 update – increasing share in a declining ma [...]
Flash Report, ReportsSeven West Media and Nine Entertainment reported their 1HFY19 earnings last week. With a challenging environment for the core FTA business, traditional broadcasters must focus on improving audience share, driving new audience growth through digital content offerings and taking costs out of the business.Sector Media.February 22, 2019BT Global Services: Playing a bad hand as well as it can
Flash Report, ReportsBTGS’s strategic plan seems like a sensible move in a very challenging market but it heralds its transition to a new operating model where its competitive advantage is largely eroded, its addressable market squeezed and it is arguably sub-scale. Although hybrid infrastructure and revenues from transition to cloud-based IT will provide something of a cushion, guidance and consensus forecasts are too optimistic in our view – cost-cutting plans are therefore likely deficient. Longer term, with IT services increasingly easy for corporates to manage themselves, diminished appetite for hybrid networks and global giants such as Amazon, Microsoft and Google squeezing out the middle-man, the space that BTGS occupies is likely to be considerably smaller.-
April 12, 2019
Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: March 2019
Market Outlook, ReportsThe number of announced transactions in March is low relative to February. A number of companies raised capital for a range of purposes, which were well received by the market. The volatility in Lyft’s share price post listing has shown that the market has struggled to price Lyft due to a lack of comparable listed companies in similar sector.April 10, 2019Mobile Sports Streaming, Gaming and E-sports: A revenue opportuni [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsThere’s been a lot of speculation in the market about the revenue upside for 5G operators. Our latest Australian consumer survey shows there is good 5G market awareness and that 18% of subscribers would consider paying a price premium for a better 5G network experience. Venture Insights believes a 5G product which allows subscribers to move to a separate 5G slice which provides enhanced data throughput would clearly work with the gaming and sports consumer segments and benefit the network provider if offered as a (for example) $5 - $10 monthly option. The risk is that if Telcos stick with AYCE and unlimited plans, then the platform operators (such as Google Stadia) will benefit from the cloud based gaming subscriptions and take advantage of a better 5G networkApril 8, 2019The North heads south: European mobile in Q4 2018
Market Outlook, ReportsEuropean mobile service revenue growth dropped to -1.3% – its lowest level in three years – particularly disappointing as growth should be bouncing back post-EU roaming tariff cuts. Having enjoyed relatively favourable dynamics in 2018, the UK and Germany are facing marked changes in momentum from here. Regulation limiting intra-EU call prices could hit hard – up to 6% of revenues and 20% of EBITDA in the UK, although other EU countries may be less exposed due to lower tariffs currently.April 2, 2019UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q4 2018
Market Outlook, ReportsMarket revenue growth accelerated to 3% in Q4, but it might never reach this level again, being helped by a never-to-be-repeated BT overlapping price rise. With price rises becoming more challenging in general, and superfast pricing under pressure in particular, maintaining/increasing ARPUs is becoming more difficult despite superfast volumes surging. Openreach’s ultrafast roll-out has accelerated, challenging Virgin Media and bringing the prospect of further price premia, but perhaps too late to be of significant benefit in 2019.March 28, 2019UK mobile market Q4 2018: Headwinds gathering for 2019
Market Outlook, ReportsFollowing record growth last quarter, the UK mobile market took a step down to just 0.9% growth in the quarter to December on the back of increasing pressure in the business market and the impact of out-of-bundle limits. 2019 looks set to be a tough year for the sector with: a series of potentially painful regulatory hits; markedly lower price rises than last year; and early signs of a degree of creeping competitive intensity. We view 5G as a much-needed means of expanding capacity in the sector with upsides from M2M and IoT likely to remain relatively small.March 27, 2019NBN update plus our views on sale options and timing
Flash Report, ReportsKey NBN 1H19 financials were roughly in line with expectations, but the growing number of Service Class 0 premises may be a threat to NBN’s activation targets, and an opportunity for bypass options such as fixed wireless. Given the upcoming federal election, what sale options and strategies could the Government consider in 2019?.March 22, 2019Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: February 2019
Monthly wrap, ReportsFebruary saw an increased level of market activity in comparison to January. The uncertainty around the TPG-VHA merger continues, with TPG is likely to write down the value of its spectrum licenses and mobile network assets in event the merger doesn’t get ACCC approval.March 22, 2019BritBox’s muted arrival in the UK: ITV FY 2018 results
Flash Report, ReportsAfter the heights that Love Island and the World Cup took ITV to in H1, the broadcaster held on over the tougher last few months of 2018 to see growth in ad revenue (0.8%) and total viewing (linear and VOD, 3%). However, it was the announcement of the subscription video service BritBox—with the discussions around the “strategic partnership” with the BBC in its concluding phase—that garnered most interest. ITV’s investment in the service is modest when compared to its global competitors—up to £25 million in 2019, £40 million in 2020 and declining thereafter—but it is a prudent low-risk entry into what is an expanding but difficult market.March 21, 2019TPG 1H19 – Business sector to be a key focus as NBN erodes Cons [...]
Flash Report, ReportsOn 19th March 2019 TPG released its 1H19 results. Overall profit plunged to A$46.9mn compared to A$198.6mn 1HY18, though much of this was a result of the write down of its spectrum assets and small cells mobile network. The announcement was also the clearest indicator of TPG potentially no longer offering entry level A$60 per month NBN, echoing industry consensus that NBN pricing is unsustainable.March 20, 2019Virgin Media UK: proceeding with caution as speed advantage comes [...]
Flash Report, ReportsAfter strong underlying 2018 results, the more subdued outlook for 2019 is an important shift, driven by regulatory pressure on mobile, higher programming costs, one-offs and softening demand. Lightning is continuing to drive market share gains in new build areas, and should provide a 2ppt tailwind to revenue growth in 2019, but enhanced visibility on the economics of rollout suggests that its conservative approach is a wise one. In existing build areas, Virgin Media is facing-off pricing pressure from TalkTalk on high speed, and potentially from BT on even higher ultrafast speeds, with it moderating pricing and launching a market-beating 500Mbps product in Spring 2019 in response.March 14, 2019Huawei and UK 5G: Identifying the risks
Market Outlook, ReportsGovernments and operators have come under increasing pressure to exclude Huawei’s 5G equipment from national networks, with justifications usually kept vague and wide-ranging rather than specific, and no evidence provided. Given the role of Huawei’s 5G equipment in the network and the extent of existing testing and checking, realistic security risks that apply to Huawei and not to all other equipment suppliers are hard to conceive. The risks of any ban are however very real; with Huawei one of only three global-scale telecoms equipment suppliers, and the preferred early choice for 5G radio equipment in the UK, removing this choice will massively increase costs and delay roll-outs of cutting-edge connectivity.Sector Telecom.March 4, 2019O2 UK delivering well on many, but not all, fronts
Flash Report, ReportsO2’s Q4 results delivered market-leading service revenue growth of 3%, double-digit EBITDA growth, sustained strong net adds and low churn. With ARPU service revenue growth flat, all of the growth came from other service revenue including M2M (machine-to-machine) and MVNO; a lumpy category up by more than 40%. Following a period of strong outperformance, O2 will face some challenges in 2019: some cost inflation to mitigate and the risk of a churn increase following December’s outage although experience suggests this is likely to be short-lived.Sector Telecom.March 4, 2019MWC – all very exciting but where’s the money?
Flash Report, ReportsThe combination of 5G, AI, IoT and big data were evangelised at MWC as generating massive scope for the transformation of multiple industries. That much is probably true, but it is the tech and consultancy companies who will likely receive the benefits, with connectivity revenue likely to be modest. For the operators, 5G brings more capacity much needed for hungry smartphone users, and perhaps the opportunity to transform themselves into a leaner operating model.March 1, 2019Vocus 1H19 earnings update: Losses in both Consumer and Business
Flash Report, ReportsOn 27th February Vocus announced its 1H19 earnings. Revenue increased slightly but EBITDA and profits remain on a downward trend. Consumer and business segments saw large declines in revenue and SIOs. In a year of “resetting”, Vocus faces the difficult challenge of extracting value out of its fibre assets through enterprise projects and transforming its Consumer segment with a renewed focus on mobile and wireless.Sector Telecom.February 22, 2019BT Global Services: Playing a bad hand as well as it can
Flash Report, ReportsBTGS’s strategic plan seems like a sensible move in a very challenging market but it heralds its transition to a new operating model where its competitive advantage is largely eroded, its addressable market squeezed and it is arguably sub-scale. Although hybrid infrastructure and revenues from transition to cloud-based IT will provide something of a cushion, guidance and consensus forecasts are too optimistic in our view – cost-cutting plans are therefore likely deficient. Longer term, with IT services increasingly easy for corporates to manage themselves, diminished appetite for hybrid networks and global giants such as Amazon, Microsoft and Google squeezing out the middle-man, the space that BTGS occupies is likely to be considerably smaller.February 21, 2019BT Q3 2018/19 results: Openreach stronger than it looks, but Cons [...]
Flash Report, ReportsBT’s Q3 results were a little mixed, with mobile particularly weak, but the company remains on track to meet/exceed its (fairly conservative) guidance for the current year, and hit (modest) consensus expectations for 2019/20. Openreach was very weak at the headline level (-9%), but stripping out an accounting effect and internal revenue the division grew by 2% by our estimates despite significant price cuts, and full fibre roll-out is progressing well. While Openreach should accelerate this year, Consumer will be hit by a price rise holiday and slowing mobile, with investors likely having to wait for existing sports rights contracts to play out to see significant profitability improvement.February 20, 2019Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: January 2019
Monthly wrap, ReportsJanuary was a rather quiet month in the Australian M&A space, with the ELMO Software/ BoxSuite’s binding sale agreement as the only major transaction. The launch of 5G networks in Australia continues with the results of the 3.6GHz spectrum auctions, though TPG will scale down its deployment due to the Huawei equipment ban.February 20, 2019Australian Telco Breakfast Roundtable: Five key discussion topics [...]
Flash Report, ReportsBackground- On 19 February 2018, Venture Insights conducted a telco industry breakfast roundtable (in Melbourne and Sydney) to discuss the following five key topics for 2019. The consensus view was that these topics are both inter-related and very dependent on government decisions and future policy. In that regard, Australia is seen as unique to the extent to which government policy has determined market structure in the telco industry.
- Will 5G leadership lead to market share gain and ARPU increases?
- Will 2019 be the year of take-off for fixed wireless broadband substitution?
- Will there be consolidation in the IoT market in 2019?
- Will the Government announce its NBN sale strategy in 2019?
- What will be the outcome of the proposed TPG – VHA merger?
Sector Telecom.February 18, 2019Telstra and Optus – nbn pain, falling ARPUs and the fight for 5 [...]
Flash Report, ReportsOn 14th February 2019 Optus and Telstra announced their latest earnings. Both revenue and earnings remained subdued as subscriber growth was offset by a slowdown in NBN migration payments, and continuing pressure on mobile ARPUs. 5G and Fixed Wireless remain key growth areas going forward.Sector Telecom.February 12, 2019Wobbles ahead for TalkTalk’s fine balancing act
Flash Report, ReportsTalkTalk is delivering on its subscriber and revenue growth targets but is straining to get there. Price rises such as a £4 ‘TV access fee’ look increasingly risky. Whilst migrating to discounted high-speed helps to deliver top-line growth, margins are c. 40% lower; an unwelcome dent to already negative cashflow and stressed leverage. Both TalkTalk’s focus on revenue growth in a tight market and fibre rollout plans look increasingly unaffordable; a more modest ambition of stable revenues might allow a healthier business model to unfold.Sector Telecom.
