Latest Reports
Latest Reports
Venture Insights reports inform and enable better decision making through independent, objective, and high quality insights, analysis and thought leadership across the media, digital and teleco industries in Australia and New Zealand and with global insight from our European partner, Enders.
Tech
All companies are impacted by the evolution of technology and the changes in consumer behaviour that it enables. Our reports explore macro tech trends such as blockchain, artificial intelligence, drones, robotics, to determine how different industries will be impacted.
Media
The pace of change in the media industry has reached unprecedented levels. Global challengers are disrupting long established incumbents and attracting sky high valuations.
Telco
The wireless data revolution and cloud service provision are transforming the telco sector. Ambitious companies are investing in infrastructure, device innovation and cloud solutions as demand continues to explode.
Energy
As the energy sector transitions from fossil fuels to renewables, technology is driving changes in generation, distribution, storage and consumption. We track the challengers, the impact on incumbents and the policy debate.
Health
Technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, wearables and apps, coupled with genomics and the personalisation of health, are transforming the consumption, provision and management of healthcare. This healthtech revolution is being driven by consumers and healthcare providers alike.
Fintech
Fintechs are transforming the financial services market. Established players are responding through a mix of investment and innovation. Our reports cover areas such as lending, neo-banks, payments, robo-advice, insurtech and blockchain.
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July 20, 2018Focus back on ARPU: TalkTalk Group Q1 2018/19 results
Focus Report, ReportsTalkTalk had another strong quarter for broadband net adds, adding 80k versus its full year target of 150k+. All of this was due to strong wholesale, with retail net adds slightly negative, although in the market and seasonal context even this retail performance is quite respectable. On-net revenue growth improved strongly to around 4%, with its ARPU decline moderating to 2%, and ARPU should be helped further by price increases for existing and new customers alike in July. TalkTalk therefore looks well placed to hit full year targets, albeit with considerable help from its wholesale customers and some aggressive price increases. The focus back onto ARPU and away from (expensively) chasing retail subscriber growth is nonetheless to be applauded. -
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July 18, 2018Video viewing forecasts to 2027: No channels and everything to wa [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsVideo consumption will continue to shift to on-demand driven by high quality content and a better user experience. Is live TV dead? Is Netflix the future of TV? We address these questions and more in this report on the future of video consumption in Australia -
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July 13, 20185G Update July 2018 – auctions caps, potential vendor bans and [...]
Free Sample, ReportsRegulatory announcements regarding 5G will affect competition dynamics as the first 5G services are closer to launch. Internationally, there is excitement but also caution as the potential high price of providing 5G services will mean expected benefits such as unlimited mobile plans prove to be difficult to justify economically.$0.00Sector Telecom. -
July 13, 2018UK TV platform forecasts to 2022: stability rules
Focus Report, ReportsDespite significant changes in people’s video viewing habits over the last few years, the TV platform landscape has appeared to reach an equilibrium. We expect pay-TV to retain its utility status for most existing customers. At the margins, movement from Sky and Virgin Media to free-to-air or pay-lite services will be mitigated by population growth. The excitable growth phases for Netflix and Amazon are likely to be over, but they have carved out prominent positions in the market. Meanwhile, the uncomplicated allure of free TV remains strong for half the UK. -
July 12, 2018Virtual Reality in 2018: Ready Player None?
Focus Report, ReportsYet another annual hype cycle in 2018 can’t hide a tepid consumer appetite for all VR platforms and heavy weather for the industry as a whole. The launch of Oculus GO, a standalone device at an attractive price, is a milestone for VR; nevertheless, even Facebook remains worried about reach and the state of the industry. Mobile AR is still a strategic focus for Google and Apple, producing diverse applications instead of just games, but new headsets from Microsoft and Magic Leap which promise advanced MR experiences have no launch dates. -
July 11, 2018Media transformation is just beginning…
Focus Report, ReportsThe continued rise and dominance of Silicon Valley’s tech giants continue to vex traditional media operators and regulators, and equally, still fascinate and allure consumers and advertisers. Publishers and marketers can no longer rely on commoditised campaigns to reach target audiences, they must offer personalised and targeted experiences that consumers are willing to pay for either through attention or dollars. -
July 9, 2018Europe’s Creative Hubs Update 2018
Market Outlook, ReportsThis third edition of Europe's Creative Hubs, produced on behalf of Bertelsmann, highlights the challenges of the digital age for enterprises of the creative industries of France, Germany and the UK from new consumer behaviors and the advent of new competitors and new forms of competition for users and customers from tech giants, Amazon, Facebook, Google and Netflix. The report calls upon policymakers in Europe to ensure a level playing field for traditional media in the key areas of taxation, competition law, privacy and data protection, highlighting the interaction of these three in the market for online advertising. -
July 6, 2018Westpac leads the Fintech investment charge
Focus Report, ReportsAustralia’s largest banks have been very active in the fintech market. This report explores the investments that they have made and considers their contrasting approaches to those investments. -
July 4, 2018The eSports economy – it’s just getting started…
Focus Report, ReportseSports has grown in popularity beyond being a niche form of entertainment to becoming a powerful means to engage millennial audiences. There’s significant investment from major media corporations, mainstream advertisers and professional sports franchises, demonstrating the emerging importance of eSports. -
June 29, 2018
Is CRR still critical to protect advertisers from ITV?
Focus Report, ReportsThe workings of the TV advertising market are a mystery to most. Overlaying an arcane ‘share of broadcast spend’ trading mechanism is regulation in the form of CRR, which has prevented anti-competitive activity by ITV since 2003. CRR will protect advertisers ‘for as long as needed’. Most advertisers we canvassed believe it should stay in place, but the sell-side and auditors say CRR has passed its ‘Best before’ date and is heading towards its ‘Use by’ date. We propose a review of CRR by the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to determine whether it is now helping or hindering the TV advertising ecosystem to become fit-for-purpose for the digital age. -
June 28, 2018The home screen: distribution, discovery and data on connected TV [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsThe TV, the main screen in the house, is rapidly becoming connected to the internet, opening a new front in the battle for people's attention. Tech players, pay-TV operators, and manufacturers are all aiming to control the user interface, ad delivery and data collection, leaving incumbent broadcaster interests less well represented. To protect their position, and the principles of public service broadcasting, broadcasters will have to work with each other at home and in Europe to leverage their content and social importance. -
June 27, 2018‘Telstra 2022’ – the inevitable end game of Australia’s n [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsTelstra has been on the path to structural separation ever since Senator Conroy came up with his plan for the nbn back in 2009. With its one-off nbn payments winding down, Telstra had no choice but to overhaul its business structure, structurally separate its assets & significantly reduce headcount. But this strategy comes with major implementation risk and any mis-steps could quickly negate the expected benefits. -
June 26, 2018Sky finally renews Serie A rights until 2021
Market Outlook, ReportsItaly’s top football league awarded Sky the broadcasting rights to seven games per week from August 2018 until May 2021 for €780 million per year, up €208 million. UK-based Perform will carry three games for €193 million. Mediaset exits the market, freeing Sky from price competition. Besides Serie A, Sky added Mediaset’s Hollywood series and films to its content line up in May and will include the Champions League from August. We expect costs to rise by up to €500 million per year, which could be recouped by cuts in content and by recruiting Mediaset subscribers, notably on Sky’s new DTT feed. The best model for Perform would be to wholesale its new DAZN service to Sky, but even if a deal is found we doubt it could break even within the rights cycle. -
June 25, 2018
Hitting targets, but pushing too hard? TalkTalk Group Q4 2017/18 [...]
Focus Report, ReportsTalkTalk hit both its subscriber and EBITDA targets for 2017/18, but Q4 contained some worrying trends including core consumer revenue in decline despite strong subscriber growth, with strong business revenue growth compensating. It held fast on guidance for 2018/19, although the 15% target underlying EBITDA growth is largely driven by regulated cost cuts, and revenue growth may be (again) achieved through the business side, which will be purely wholesale following the sale of its direct business customer base. Having spent the last few years not growing retail subscribers enough in a growing market, TalkTalk is now perhaps trying to grow too fast in a mature market, putting pressure on its ARPU from new and existing customers alike. -
June 21, 2018LEO Satellites: The race to connect the unconnected
Market Outlook, ReportsTraditional satellites have struggled to meet the connectivity requirements of current IoT applications and are expensive for existing segment users. Low Earth Orbit satellite technologies can complement traditional satellite and terrestrial services to solve IoT connectivity issues and the growing broadband digital divide. -
June 20, 2018European mobile in Q1 2018: North–South divide to exacerbate
Market Outlook, ReportsIn this report we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or incomplete, and we have updated previous period figures where better information has come to light. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request. -
June 19, 2018Advertising after the turning point: When offline is the exceptio [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsOnline advertising became the majority of all UK ad spend last year, in step with China but ahead of all other major markets. Direct response has further increased its share to 54% of UK ad spend, fuelled by the self-serve platforms of Google, Facebook and Amazon, while content media nets just 11% of the online advertising pot. We estimate that all online-delivered channels - including "pure play" online properties, broadcaster VOD, digital out-of-home and online radio - could account for well over 60% of UK ad spend by 2020, but only with improved commitment to industry governance. -
June 15, 2018BBC iPlayer Boxsets: performance and what it tells us about on-de [...]
Focus Report, ReportsThe BBC is concerned with the performance of the iPlayer, handicapped by its inability to monetise its content. Nevertheless, as it moves towards an all-IP future, it is experimenting with new content strategies. Data from Digital-i shows that the iPlayer's Christmas Boxsets brought 360,000 unique viewers/week to the BBC portfolio; an audience which skewed encouragingly young. Furthermore, case studies of two of the programmes made available over this period—Peaky Blinders and Hard Sun—provide insight into how people consume content delivered this way, something that has been difficult to ascertain due to the major SVODs' secretive treatment of their own data.
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June 14, 2018UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q1 2018: Diverging stra [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsUK residential communications market revenue growth strengthened in Q1, but this was entirely driven by an overlapping price increase from BT, and the decline in market volume growth continues. Continued pressure on both subscriber volume growth and ARPU has led to diverging strategies, with most operators focused on sustaining ARPU, but TalkTalk chasing volumes at the low end, with the former approach currently proving more successful. Looking forward, the benefit of BT’s price rise will fall away completely next quarter and market revenue growth will likely resume its downward trend, but the nadir may be within sight if the flight to quality persists at most operators -
June 12, 2018
Advertising Market Outlook:The Digital juggernaut continues with [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsVenture Insights expects total advertising spend to grow at a 2.7% CAGR to $17.4bn in 2022. Digital will account for the majority of the growth in AdEx through our forecast horizon increasing from 49% of the market today to 66% by 2022. While we see risks to TV audiences and hence ad revenues, we believe the TV model is far from dead. TV can continue to attract significant audience reach (and engagement) but it must evolve to stay relevant. Overall we forecast -3.7% CAGR (to FY22) for TV AdEx. -
June 11, 2018
Disruption in Premier League football? 2018 auction finally over
Focus Report, ReportsThe latest auction of live Premier League broadcast rights commencing in 2019/20 has concluded at last, with three different winners for the first time. The total sum has not been confirmed, but it looks to be down c. 10% from the previous auction at £1.55 billion per season—still substantial, and not far off the BBC’s entire TV content budget. As we predicted, Sky and BT remain dominant, winning 180 of the 200 games per season, whilst new entrant Amazon picked up one of the leftover packages at what looks to be a very low price. -
June 8, 2018
UK mobile market Q1 2018: Primed for revenue acceleration
Market Outlook, ReportsService revenue growth for the UK mobile market improved in the first quarter of the year, lifting from 1.0% to 1.2%. There was an easing of the EU roaming regulatory impact helping growth improve, but the SIM-only drag likely grew to counteract this, suggesting a modest underlying improvement overall. We expect continued market growth improvement in the coming year due to a number of tailwinds, namely annual price rises, the arrival of IFRS 15, and the EU roaming impact dropping out. The fundamentals of the market remain solid: competition is rational; pricing is firm; data demand is strongly rising; supply is partially constrained; MVNOs and convergence do not appear a threat. -
June 7, 2018Mobile Visual Search: A Picture is Worth a Thousand Searches
Focus Report, ReportsIn the past few years, search technologies have seen dramatic improvements with both voice and visual search emerging as alternatives to traditional text-based keyword search. While voice search may have gotten a head start, rapid improvements in AI and the quality of smartphone cameras means that Mobile Visual Search is fast catching up. -
June 6, 2018
Football embraces Chinese ‘hot’ money – at a risk
Focus Report, ReportsIn a display of chutzpah, Mediapro acquired the Ligue 1 domestic broadcasting rights from 2020-24 in what is the most disruptive shock to the French broadcasting industry in a generation; one that is likely to accelerate Canal+’s decline, force a review of the outdated regulatory framework, and possibly spur an M&A spree. The Mediapro move only makes sense as a highly speculative bid to resell the rights, or a dedicated channel, to French platforms in 2020. The odds are high that the broker ultimately fails to fulfil the contract, as just happened in Italy, where Sky is now expected to get the Serie A licence. Precedents of new entrants acquiring domestic top-flight rights bode poorly for Mediapro, and for the league. The Ligue 1 may live to regret the introduction of a ‘re-sell right’ into its licensing terms. -
June 4, 2018News brands and reader subscriptions: Towards a sustainable futur [...]
Focus Report, ReportsPrint remains the primary revenue driver for most newspapers, but after 20 years of online news publishing we ask the critical question: how will publishers sustain newsrooms at scale when print has disappeared, or has contracted to a weekend luxury experience? The question needs to be answered in the context of both: 1) Rapidly declining advertising revenues in print media; and 2) A tiny and shrinking market share of digital advertising revenues. We believe these circumstances strongly imply the race for audience scale is more investor fallacy than a sustainable business prize; and besides, over-reliance on the advertising market for quality content provision is unappealing, particularly to proudly independent news publishers. Reader revenue, long assumed to be an impossibility for general quality digital news services, is the only answer. Registrations, membership and subscription models are being explored, tested, adopted or exploited by almost every major quality news provider in the US and Europe. The transition to subscription is hugely attractive, but requires first and foremost a new editorial strategy, requiring a wholesale business transformation. -
May 31, 2018French, Spanish and Italian telcos won’t bankroll further footb [...]
Focus Report, ReportsThe rights auction for France’s Ligue 1 will be held on 29 May. With Altice’s struggling subsidiary SFR unlikely to bid, Canal+ and BeIN Sports may not offer enough to meet reserve prices, triggering a postponement of the auction. In Spain, stiff fixed-line competition is shifting battlegrounds from football to scripted content. The Champions League has yet to sign up a platform for next season, while the upcoming 2019-22 La Liga rights auction may well fail to increase domestic revenues. With just 12 weeks before next season kicks off, Italy’s Serie A is also yet to secure a broadcaster, although we expect the league to back down and settle with Sky. In this deflationary environment, top clubs are eyeing a new Club Word Cup as an extra revenue stream – running the risk of further widening the financial chasm between themselves and smaller clubs. -
May 30, 2018BT new Consumer strategy: Converging, but in a good way
Flash Report, ReportsBT has emphasised ‘convergence’ in its new Consumer strategy, but it has avoided most of the usual fixed-mobile convergence mistakes, with separate brands, minimal discounting and only slightly flawed converged products. The general strategy is to improve customer service to improve market share trends (particularly in broadband), enable premium products/positioning, and allow for cross-selling of a strong set of converged (in a broader sense) products, which is very sensible in our view. It does require extra spending in the short-term to improve customer service and the perception thereof (particularly in broadband) before premium positioning and cross-selling can be effective, therefore improved trends at the bottom line may take some time to come through. -
May 29, 2018Machine Learning – connecting the dots…
Flash Report, ReportsMachine learning is a branch of Artificial Intelligence that enables computer programs to learn, analyse and identify trends and patterns within large sets of data. Rapid innovation in recent years has seen exciting advances in machine learning with the rise of multiple use cases across a range of industries. -
May 28, 2018Strategically challenged: Vodafone Q4 2017/18 results
Focus Report, Market Outlook, ReportsThe major change in trend evidenced in Vodafone’s Q4 results was a decline in mobile service revenue growth in Germany by 2ppts on the December quarter, in spite of record contract net adds and improving growth trends from its competitors. At least part of this deterioration is likely due to its strategic focus on converged products; we estimate discounts of around one third and question the rationale for this initiative, particularly given the admission that this is distracting from the core mobile business. Vodafone’s guidance for 1-5% group EBITDA growth next year reflects the challenging outlook and uncertainty in southern European markets, a more positive view on the UK, with Vodafone’s German strategy a major swing factor.Sector Telecom. -
May 25, 2018Retailing in the material world
Focus Report, ReportsEcommerce has grown to 17.5% of retail spend, and accounts for almost all growth in spend. Physical retailers are beginning to feel the effects, with chains reporting falling profits and even bringing in administrators. The UK picture is muddied by a general lack of economic recovery, and irrelevant comparisons with the US. Finished goods stores, however, are clearly under extreme pressure. We are moving into a retail paradigm of online and offline elements being freely matched. To survive this transition, brick and mortar retailers have to become differentiated experiences and close the data gap with e-retailers -
May 24, 2018European video-on-demand: Playing catch-up to the UK
Focus Report, ReportsThe UK continues to lead the EU5 in take-up and consumption of video-on-demand services, with close cultural alignment and a historic williness to pay for TV content making it a receptive home for US SVODs. Netflix dominates in most markets, benefiting from high-profile US imports and big-budget local productions. Local SVODs are struggling, with those operated by FTA broadcasters facing considerable challenges. Collaboration between local broadcasters and pay-TV platforms is essential if they are to hold at bay the threat of Netflix and co., with an increasingly favourable regulatory environment opening the door for unprecedented collaboration. -
May 23, 2018
BT Q4 2017/18 results: Slowing broadband bites, but recovery pos [...]
Flash Report, ReportsBT Group met expectations for the 2017/18 financial year, but future guidance is very modest compared to previous performance and financial market expectations, with 2018/19 revenue and EBITDA both guided to decline by around 2% with capex rising. In our view, this weakened outlook is primarily driven by the ongoing slowdown and increasing competitiveness of the UK broadband market, with operating metrics at BT Consumer particularly weak. BT’s re-vamped strategy looks good in parts, and could deliver the incremental improvements necessary to outperform the new (much more modest) expectations, helped by existing – and likely continued – strength in mobile. -
May 22, 2018Blockchain in Telecom – moving from concept to reality…
Flash Report, ReportsIn the past decade, Telcos have had to deal with a number of disruptive technologies. The pace of change is set to continue as Telcos transition towards a 5G and IoT enabled ecosystem. As Telcos seek new revenue opportunities and a way to streamline operations, Blockchain is rapidly evolving to become one of the most promising emerging innovations for telecoms today. -
May 21, 2018Virgin Media Q1 2018 results: Good, but beware headlines
Focus Report, Market Outlook, ReportsThe highlight of Virgin Media’s Q1 results was the return to growth for its UK cable ARPU (+1.3%), although the improvement in trend should be interpreted with caution due to accounting changes. Headline group revenue growth of 5.2% was boosted by profit-neutral handset sales, with underlying growth of around 3.2% – still strong in the sector context. Virgin Media continues to do relatively well in the increasingly challenging UK broadband market, but with evidence of limited pricing power, sluggish roll-out and subscriber growth, revenue trends look set to slow. -
May 18, 2018Vodafone/Liberty Global deal: Slim economics and regulatory risk
Focus Report, Market Outlook, ReportsVodafone’s acquisition of Liberty's assets in Germany and Central Europe is likely to face regulatory scrutiny at the EU – and possibly also German – level. We view Vodafone’s expectation of closure in mid-2019 with no remedies as unlikely. The economics of the deal for Vodafone are slim, highly reliant on extracting sizeable synergies, and vulnerable to operational risk and potential remedies for regulatory approval, particularly in Germany. While we see some synergy benefit from combining two cable assets in Germany, we are unconvinced of meaningful benefits from combined fixed/mobile offerings. -
May 17, 2018Wall St Shuffle: Spotify’s non-IPO
Focus Report, ReportsSpotify is now the world’s first publicly listed on-demand music streaming service. Its global footprint generated €4 billion in 2017 from over 70 million paying subscribers and 90 million ad-funded users across 65 countries. As it expands, the service is steadily but surely moving ever closer to profitability, with a 2019 operating profit a very real prospect. So far and for the near future, Spotify’s global pre-eminence versus competition from Apple, Amazon and Google proves remarkably resilient. Plans to build upon its differentiating features will become ever more decisive as the tech titans will continue to wield their resources and ecosystems against the comparatively undiversified company. -
May 16, 2018SXSW 2018 – Visions of the future: Blockchain, AI and Colonies [...]
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsVenture Insights attended this year’s South by South West (SXSW), Austin’s annual technology conference.This report highlights 7 key trends from the event, including: the impact of Blockchain, whether we should trust AI, how ethics apply to platforms, the battle for your voice and whether we will be on Mars by 2019! -
May 15, 2018
Covert growth in UK mobile
Focus Report, Market Outlook, ReportsThe UK mobile market is growing strongly – we estimate revenues by 5% and EBITDA by 8% in 2017 – excluding one-off regulatory drags and the loss of non-profit-generating handset revenue. Regulatory price cuts end in mid-2018, and the handset effect will disappear from all reported figures from April 2018, leaving scope for very positive headline growth next year – considerably better than its European comparators and the sluggish UK fixed market. The outlook for the UK mobile industry is the best it has been in a decade, with significant growth in data demand, price increases, some supply constraints, rational competition, and major regulatory drags rapidly fading. -
May 14, 2018
Video viewing forecasts to 2027: continued divergence by age grou [...]
Focus Report, ReportsOur latest forecasts predict traditional broadcasters will account for 72% of all video viewing in 2027, down from an estimated 82% in 2017, reflecting the continuing adoption of online video services across all UK age groups. Additional viewing of online short-form content such as YouTube will keep pushing overall volumes higher, with SVOD services serving more as a substitution for linear TV. The extent will be greater among younger age groups, for whom the shift has already been significant. We predict that in 10 years just 42% of 16-34s’ total viewing will be to conventional broadcasters versus 91% for the over-55s. -
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May 10, 2018TPG mobile launch plans – there’s going to be data on the str [...]
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsWith an increasingly commoditised fixed market, the Australian mobile market is under attack as both margins and market share are under pressure. TPG is set to launch its mobile network with rock bottom introductory pricing for mobile data.$0.00 -
May 10, 2018NBN update: more fibre + better pricing will lead to higher speed [...]
Focus Report, ReportsThe NBN has made significant progress on improving speed uptake on its network in the past six months driven by the pricing changes announced in November 2017. However, customer complaints that continue to rise as the rollout progresses and an increasing threat from fixed wireless substitutes continue to weigh on the future of the NBN. -
May 9, 2018European privacy: New Wave in the Old World
Focus Report, ReportsFor much of the online media industry, GDPR compliance has stalled at basic data audits and box ticking, as firms wait for the rest of the privacy regime to emerge. But weighing technicalities of legitimate interest and consent misses the point: transparent consumer value will be the only sustainable basis for processing personal data. The scrutiny of Google and Facebook privacy practices involves an added antitrust dimension, potentially leading to processing limits as remedies. -
May 8, 2018Trinity Mirror and Northern & Shell raise regulatory hackles
Focus Report, ReportsThe Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) halted the merger of the publishing assets of Trinity Mirror and Northern & Shell, and is inquiring into the merger’s likely impact on competition in the national newspaper market. The CMA will take into account efficiencies of £20 million in newsrooms, printing and advertising sales, which if realised could help sustain national news provision in a failing print market transitioning to digital services. Secretary of State (SoS) Matt Hancock has issued a Public Interest Intervention Notice (PIIN) citing newspaper public interest (PI) grounds, on concerns the TM/N&S merger may be contrary to the public interest -
May 7, 2018Blockchain: Reinventing the wheel
Focus Report, ReportsDespite the hype, systems based on the technology underlying bitcoin are a poor match for most use-cases. The term 'blockchain' is nowadays applied to technologies with shared aims and ideals rather than technological unity; few – if any – of these aims require true blockchain, any many are double-edged swords. The promises of blockchain are seductive in the context of programmatic online advertising, but are over-sold. -
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May 5, 2018Venture Advisory Monthly Wrap – April 2018
Free Sample, Monthly wrap, ReportsVenture Advisory provides a review of leading Australasian telco, media and technology companies on a monthly basis. This review considers amongst other things share price performers ( best and worst performers during the month), company news flow and ASX release updates and respective valuation trading multiples. The report is designed for busy executives and investment professionals that want to get a flash update and stay on top of key news flow. If you wish to find out more or have an deeper enquiry please feel free to contact Nigel Pugh or Sarah Houghton.$0.00 -
May 3, 2018Grand new ideas for the content industry: Lessons from GDC 2018
Focus Report, ReportsLast month’s Game Developer’s Conference in San Francisco was a triumphant showcase for crossover technologies and ideas designed to attract and engage new customers; ideas coming soon to all parts of the digital entertainment industry. Google and Facebook launched new “Instant App” technologies for game developers on their platforms, which will eventually have a significant impact on mobile app curation and discovery for not just games but the broader entertainment sector. Universal Pictures showed how media and entertainment companies should be working with indie developers to drive franchise development, utilise creative IP, and bring new ideas to market quicker. -
May 2, 2018Small Cells Part 1: Leveraging Public Infrastructure
Focus Report, ReportsRecent public infrastructure deals have demonstrated the joint benefits of combining smart city rollouts with mobile networks. Venture expects more infrastructure deals to be completed as governments recognise the clear public policy benefits and Telcos roll out 5G networks faster. -
May 1, 2018Sky Q3 2017/18 results: ever more attractive
Focus Report, ReportsSky posted yet another set of solid results, with revenues up 5% and operating profits up 10%, despite weakening operating metrics in Germany & Austria. Deals with Netflix and Spotify will enhance the customer experience, signalling Sky's confidence in its platform, perhaps a sign of further deals to come. A successful outcome from February’s Premier League auction sealed the prospect of a takeover battle for Sky, with Comcast launching its formal bid this week. -
April 27, 2018Brexit Update: Domestic Issues
Focus Report, ReportsDespite apparent instability of the political climate in Westminster, the direction of travel is predictable as both main parties share the aim of Brexit. The big fight in Parliament is over the future trade policy of the UK. Officially, the UK wants to agree a Free Trade Area (FTA) with the EU, while the Labour Party and Tory rebels hope a Customs Union (CU) prevails, binding the UK to the EU’s trade policy. The Supreme Court is about to hear the UK Government’s challenge to legislation passed by the devolved nations of Scotland and Wales, which claim their consent is required for policies on agriculture, fisheries and the environment. -
April 26, 2018The Influence of Bots on Fake News
Focus Report, ReportsFake accounts could represent up to 15% of a digital platform’s total accounts and generate a high proportion of activity. Whilst, digital platform providers are taking some steps to prevent fake bot accounts, it is likely that Governments will set regulation to ensure providers formalise monitoring, blocking and labelling processes.
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July 6, 2018
Westpac leads the Fintech investment charge
Focus Report, ReportsAustralia’s largest banks have been very active in the fintech market. This report explores the investments that they have made and considers their contrasting approaches to those investments. -
May 22, 2018
Blockchain in Telecom – moving from concept to reality…
Flash Report, ReportsIn the past decade, Telcos have had to deal with a number of disruptive technologies. The pace of change is set to continue as Telcos transition towards a 5G and IoT enabled ecosystem. As Telcos seek new revenue opportunities and a way to streamline operations, Blockchain is rapidly evolving to become one of the most promising emerging innovations for telecoms today. -
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April 24, 2018AltFi Conference 2018 – Growth with transparency
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsVenture Insights attended the annual AltFi Australasian Conference on April 15th 2018. The key takeaway from the conference was that the Fintech Industry in Australia is growing at a fast rate and the industry is optimistic about the Federal Government’s Open Banking initiative.$0.00 -
April 17, 2018
IoT & Cryptocurrency Mining: Cyber Security Update
Focus Report, ReportsThe Internet of Things represents a significant and growing target area for cyber criminals. The growth in cryptocurrencies is focussing cyber criminals on the benefits of crypto-mining malware. Individuals, businesses and governments need to include IoT related cyber risks in their security controls and plans. -
September 21, 2017The growth of Insurtech – Insurance companies should be worried
Focus Report, Free Sample, ReportsIn terms of new global investment, Insurtech has been one of the fastest growing Fintech segments over the last eighteen months – and it is now starting to pick up pace in Australia. This report explains what Insurtech is and why it matters. -
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August 16, 2017Follow the Money
Focus Report, Free Sample, ReportsAustralia’s VC market continued to advance, with over US$670m of investments made in FY17. Investments were supported by favourable economic and business conditions and record-high fundraising activities.$0.00 -
July 14, 2017Lending Disruption – Fact or fiction?
Free Sample, ReportsThe big four banking oligopoly have had a highly profitable run over the last five years. During this time start-ups have emerged to challenge the dominance of the banks in both consumer lending and business lending markets. Whilst the challengers are growing and gaining traction, the odds are still stacked against many of them. Will they survive and what are the likely outcomes?
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May 25, 2017Disruption in Payments: Time to throw out your wallet?
ReportsAs the usage of cash declines, we are trending towards a cashless society supported by new payment technologies.Within the next decade, cashless methods will be preferred, and have mostly positive implications for both businesses and consumers.However, cash will still be with us and being used for well over the next 20 years.
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May 17, 2017A$1bn at stake for fund managers from Robo-Advice disruption
ReportsRobo-advice can offer a lower cost structure, similar financial results and greater transparency over traditional asset managers and is going to have a significant impact on the wealth management industry.
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February 19, 2018Top Australian Healthcare Tech trends to watch in 2018
Flash Report, Free Sample, Reports$0.00Digital and mobile technologies are providing the foundation for many emerging healthcare innovations that are disrupting the Australian healthcare market. To keep pace with this continuous transformation, healthcare operators will need to embrace new technologies to improve health outcomes, be cost effective and provide timely care.
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October 11, 2017Game of Genomes – decoding the future of healthcare
Free Sample, ReportsMainstream genomics is still nascent but further decline in sequencing costs will drive adoption. Unprecedented intelligence (i.e. big data) involving the genotypic and phenotypic data of individuals will completely reengineer our health system over the next decade. Genomics is a game changer that will reshape not only the clinical health system but also our personal wellness and lifestyle decisions. -
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September 6, 2017National Digital Health Strategy – one byte at a time
Free Sample, ReportsIt’s time to move on from relying on doctors’ memories and the pulling together of fragmented information from across the health system. The National Digital Health Strategy outlines the transformation of the Australian healthcare system from a paper-based records system to a digital one that ensures the right information, at the right place and at the right time.$0.00 -
August 10, 2017Disruption in Aged Care – Rise of the Silver Surfer
ReportsAustralia is in the early stages of a ‘silver tsunami’ that will play out over the next three decades. Like its population, the aged care industry is getting long in the tooth and the convergence of an ageing population, aged care reforms, evolving business models and technological disruption is about to reshape multiple areas of the aged care ecosystem. -
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November 6, 2015Disruption In – Disruption is good for health
Free Sample, ReportsOur proprietary Disruption Framework has identified the Healthcare industry as vulnerable to disruption. We estimate that A$23b of A$130b (revenue) is susceptible to disruption with a proportion of this at risk with big data in eHealth, point of care testing and mHealth emerging as the key disruptive trends. We believe Telstra will lead the disruption in healthcare.
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Free
January 23, 2018Wind Farms – Adding wind to Australia’s energy sails
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsWind energy already accounts for 30 percent of renewable generation and over 5 percent of total electricity generation in Australia. Falling development and generation costs will drive the growth of wind as an energy source into the future.$0.00 -
Free
November 6, 2017Green Hydrogen – Opportunity or hype?
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsHydrogen as an energy carrier has long been discussed as a pathway to a greener future and although technology progress has been slow, recent developments point to tangible progress.Diversity of sources, security and flexibility within Australia’s energy system is the key to a reliable energy future; hydrogen could play an important role alongside other energy technologies. -
Free
October 13, 2017Energy Roundtable Breakfast – key findings
Focus Report, Free Sample, ReportsWhat will Australia’s energy future look like in 2030? Will it be business as usual? …… a utopian renewable energy reliant world? …… one powered by nuclear? …… or one with high technological consumption control?
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Free
September 13, 2017AEMO Report – exacerbating our issues not finding solutions
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsAEMO’s report to the Government appropriately highlights the risks to the NEM following closure of key dispatchable capacity. However, the report and the Government’s reaction adds to the hysteria rather than addressing policy that provides incentives to invest in appropriate generation assets.$0.00 -
August 30, 2017‘Charging’ ahead – Five key trends reshaping the electricit [...]
Free Sample, ReportsThe traditional electricity industry is under significant pressure as rapid advances in technology are upending the electricity value chain. Disruption in electricity is no longer an ‘if’. Think when, how fast and how big. Batteries, renewables, prosumers and distributed electricity systems, electric vehicles and the Internet of Energy are the key trends leading the charge. -
Free
August 4, 2017Residential rooftop solar set to soar
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsSolar rooftop economics are approaching a tipping point. Not only does electricity generated from residential rooftop solar households reduce greenhouse gas emissions, recent market trends indicate residential rooftop solar is the solution for households to withstand increasing electricity prices. -
Free
July 18, 2017Disruption in Electricity – an electrifying start to a sunny fu [...]
Free Sample, ReportsWith the appropriate political and regulatory support and after years in the wilderness Australia now approaches a period of rapid change to the way in which it produces and consumes energy. This will mark the end of a ‘lazy’ era of burning fossil fuels and propel Australia’s energy sector toward being regarded as highly innovative with the ability to export our innovation and skills.
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Free
June 21, 2017The Finkel Review – A politically acceptable outcome for no [...]
Free Sample, ReportsThe Finkel review has been released and appears to have come up with a ‘politically acceptable’ solution. However, even if all the recommendations are accepted, the future impact on the electricity market is far from certain. Human behaviour and the declining cost of renewables will have a more profound effect than the Finkel review suggests in its modelling.
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Free
June 21, 2017Snowy Hydro 2.0: Good but not enough?
Free Sample, ReportsSnowy Hydro 2.0 has been proposed by the Federal Government to alleviate the Australian Energy Crisis. Will it be the golden solution they hoped for, or should the government consider alternative investments to allow a more effective or timely solution?
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Free
April 19, 2017Batteries have become the mainstream solution to the energy crisi [...]
Free Sample, ReportsFollowing the blackouts in South Australia, a strong debate around the future of electricity has been sparked within both the state and national governments. We take a closer look at this debate, summarise the causes, consequences and likely outcomes, whilst discussing the impact to the wider Australian energy market. -
Free
February 15, 2017Towards Australia’s Smart Energy Future
Free Sample, ReportsAs technological developments continue Smart Energy is increasingly being adopted by the government, businesses and consumers in order to address climate issues and cut energy costs. We discuss the uptake of Smart Energy within Australia including the key technologies, government incentives driving uptake and the anticipated disruption from future changes.
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July 12, 2018
Virtual Reality in 2018: Ready Player None?
Focus Report, ReportsYet another annual hype cycle in 2018 can’t hide a tepid consumer appetite for all VR platforms and heavy weather for the industry as a whole. The launch of Oculus GO, a standalone device at an attractive price, is a milestone for VR; nevertheless, even Facebook remains worried about reach and the state of the industry. Mobile AR is still a strategic focus for Google and Apple, producing diverse applications instead of just games, but new headsets from Microsoft and Magic Leap which promise advanced MR experiences have no launch dates. -
July 9, 2018
Europe’s Creative Hubs Update 2018
Market Outlook, ReportsThis third edition of Europe's Creative Hubs, produced on behalf of Bertelsmann, highlights the challenges of the digital age for enterprises of the creative industries of France, Germany and the UK from new consumer behaviors and the advent of new competitors and new forms of competition for users and customers from tech giants, Amazon, Facebook, Google and Netflix. The report calls upon policymakers in Europe to ensure a level playing field for traditional media in the key areas of taxation, competition law, privacy and data protection, highlighting the interaction of these three in the market for online advertising. -
July 6, 2018
Westpac leads the Fintech investment charge
Focus Report, ReportsAustralia’s largest banks have been very active in the fintech market. This report explores the investments that they have made and considers their contrasting approaches to those investments. -
July 4, 2018
The eSports economy – it’s just getting started…
Focus Report, ReportseSports has grown in popularity beyond being a niche form of entertainment to becoming a powerful means to engage millennial audiences. There’s significant investment from major media corporations, mainstream advertisers and professional sports franchises, demonstrating the emerging importance of eSports. -
June 21, 2018
LEO Satellites: The race to connect the unconnected
Market Outlook, ReportsTraditional satellites have struggled to meet the connectivity requirements of current IoT applications and are expensive for existing segment users. Low Earth Orbit satellite technologies can complement traditional satellite and terrestrial services to solve IoT connectivity issues and the growing broadband digital divide. -
June 19, 2018
Advertising after the turning point: When offline is the exceptio [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsOnline advertising became the majority of all UK ad spend last year, in step with China but ahead of all other major markets. Direct response has further increased its share to 54% of UK ad spend, fuelled by the self-serve platforms of Google, Facebook and Amazon, while content media nets just 11% of the online advertising pot. We estimate that all online-delivered channels - including "pure play" online properties, broadcaster VOD, digital out-of-home and online radio - could account for well over 60% of UK ad spend by 2020, but only with improved commitment to industry governance. -
June 12, 2018
Advertising Market Outlook:The Digital juggernaut continues with [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsVenture Insights expects total advertising spend to grow at a 2.7% CAGR to $17.4bn in 2022. Digital will account for the majority of the growth in AdEx through our forecast horizon increasing from 49% of the market today to 66% by 2022. While we see risks to TV audiences and hence ad revenues, we believe the TV model is far from dead. TV can continue to attract significant audience reach (and engagement) but it must evolve to stay relevant. Overall we forecast -3.7% CAGR (to FY22) for TV AdEx. -
June 11, 2018
Disruption in Premier League football? 2018 auction finally over
Focus Report, ReportsThe latest auction of live Premier League broadcast rights commencing in 2019/20 has concluded at last, with three different winners for the first time. The total sum has not been confirmed, but it looks to be down c. 10% from the previous auction at £1.55 billion per season—still substantial, and not far off the BBC’s entire TV content budget. As we predicted, Sky and BT remain dominant, winning 180 of the 200 games per season, whilst new entrant Amazon picked up one of the leftover packages at what looks to be a very low price. -
June 7, 2018
Mobile Visual Search: A Picture is Worth a Thousand Searches
Focus Report, ReportsIn the past few years, search technologies have seen dramatic improvements with both voice and visual search emerging as alternatives to traditional text-based keyword search. While voice search may have gotten a head start, rapid improvements in AI and the quality of smartphone cameras means that Mobile Visual Search is fast catching up. -
May 29, 2018
Machine Learning – connecting the dots…
Flash Report, ReportsMachine learning is a branch of Artificial Intelligence that enables computer programs to learn, analyse and identify trends and patterns within large sets of data. Rapid innovation in recent years has seen exciting advances in machine learning with the rise of multiple use cases across a range of industries. -
May 25, 2018
Retailing in the material world
Focus Report, ReportsEcommerce has grown to 17.5% of retail spend, and accounts for almost all growth in spend. Physical retailers are beginning to feel the effects, with chains reporting falling profits and even bringing in administrators. The UK picture is muddied by a general lack of economic recovery, and irrelevant comparisons with the US. Finished goods stores, however, are clearly under extreme pressure. We are moving into a retail paradigm of online and offline elements being freely matched. To survive this transition, brick and mortar retailers have to become differentiated experiences and close the data gap with e-retailers -
May 22, 2018
Blockchain in Telecom – moving from concept to reality…
Flash Report, ReportsIn the past decade, Telcos have had to deal with a number of disruptive technologies. The pace of change is set to continue as Telcos transition towards a 5G and IoT enabled ecosystem. As Telcos seek new revenue opportunities and a way to streamline operations, Blockchain is rapidly evolving to become one of the most promising emerging innovations for telecoms today. -
May 17, 2018
Wall St Shuffle: Spotify’s non-IPO
Focus Report, ReportsSpotify is now the world’s first publicly listed on-demand music streaming service. Its global footprint generated €4 billion in 2017 from over 70 million paying subscribers and 90 million ad-funded users across 65 countries. As it expands, the service is steadily but surely moving ever closer to profitability, with a 2019 operating profit a very real prospect. So far and for the near future, Spotify’s global pre-eminence versus competition from Apple, Amazon and Google proves remarkably resilient. Plans to build upon its differentiating features will become ever more decisive as the tech titans will continue to wield their resources and ecosystems against the comparatively undiversified company. -
May 16, 2018
SXSW 2018 – Visions of the future: Blockchain, AI and Colonies [...]
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsVenture Insights attended this year’s South by South West (SXSW), Austin’s annual technology conference.This report highlights 7 key trends from the event, including: the impact of Blockchain, whether we should trust AI, how ethics apply to platforms, the battle for your voice and whether we will be on Mars by 2019! -
FreeMay 10, 2018
TPG mobile launch plans – there’s going to be data on the str [...]
Flash Report, Free Sample, ReportsWith an increasingly commoditised fixed market, the Australian mobile market is under attack as both margins and market share are under pressure. TPG is set to launch its mobile network with rock bottom introductory pricing for mobile data.$0.00 -
May 10, 2018
NBN update: more fibre + better pricing will lead to higher speed [...]
Focus Report, ReportsThe NBN has made significant progress on improving speed uptake on its network in the past six months driven by the pricing changes announced in November 2017. However, customer complaints that continue to rise as the rollout progresses and an increasing threat from fixed wireless substitutes continue to weigh on the future of the NBN. -
May 9, 2018
European privacy: New Wave in the Old World
Focus Report, ReportsFor much of the online media industry, GDPR compliance has stalled at basic data audits and box ticking, as firms wait for the rest of the privacy regime to emerge. But weighing technicalities of legitimate interest and consent misses the point: transparent consumer value will be the only sustainable basis for processing personal data. The scrutiny of Google and Facebook privacy practices involves an added antitrust dimension, potentially leading to processing limits as remedies. -
May 7, 2018
Blockchain: Reinventing the wheel
Focus Report, ReportsDespite the hype, systems based on the technology underlying bitcoin are a poor match for most use-cases. The term 'blockchain' is nowadays applied to technologies with shared aims and ideals rather than technological unity; few – if any – of these aims require true blockchain, any many are double-edged swords. The promises of blockchain are seductive in the context of programmatic online advertising, but are over-sold. -
FreeMay 5, 2018
Venture Advisory Monthly Wrap – April 2018
Free Sample, Monthly wrap, ReportsVenture Advisory provides a review of leading Australasian telco, media and technology companies on a monthly basis. This review considers amongst other things share price performers ( best and worst performers during the month), company news flow and ASX release updates and respective valuation trading multiples. The report is designed for busy executives and investment professionals that want to get a flash update and stay on top of key news flow. If you wish to find out more or have an deeper enquiry please feel free to contact Nigel Pugh or Sarah Houghton.$0.00 -
May 3, 2018
Grand new ideas for the content industry: Lessons from GDC 2018
Focus Report, ReportsLast month’s Game Developer’s Conference in San Francisco was a triumphant showcase for crossover technologies and ideas designed to attract and engage new customers; ideas coming soon to all parts of the digital entertainment industry. Google and Facebook launched new “Instant App” technologies for game developers on their platforms, which will eventually have a significant impact on mobile app curation and discovery for not just games but the broader entertainment sector. Universal Pictures showed how media and entertainment companies should be working with indie developers to drive franchise development, utilise creative IP, and bring new ideas to market quicker.
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NewJuly 20, 2018
Focus back on ARPU: TalkTalk Group Q1 2018/19 results
Focus Report, ReportsTalkTalk had another strong quarter for broadband net adds, adding 80k versus its full year target of 150k+. All of this was due to strong wholesale, with retail net adds slightly negative, although in the market and seasonal context even this retail performance is quite respectable. On-net revenue growth improved strongly to around 4%, with its ARPU decline moderating to 2%, and ARPU should be helped further by price increases for existing and new customers alike in July. TalkTalk therefore looks well placed to hit full year targets, albeit with considerable help from its wholesale customers and some aggressive price increases. The focus back onto ARPU and away from (expensively) chasing retail subscriber growth is nonetheless to be applauded. -
NewJuly 18, 2018
Video viewing forecasts to 2027: No channels and everything to wa [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsVideo consumption will continue to shift to on-demand driven by high quality content and a better user experience. Is live TV dead? Is Netflix the future of TV? We address these questions and more in this report on the future of video consumption in Australia -
July 13, 2018
UK TV platform forecasts to 2022: stability rules
Focus Report, ReportsDespite significant changes in people’s video viewing habits over the last few years, the TV platform landscape has appeared to reach an equilibrium. We expect pay-TV to retain its utility status for most existing customers. At the margins, movement from Sky and Virgin Media to free-to-air or pay-lite services will be mitigated by population growth. The excitable growth phases for Netflix and Amazon are likely to be over, but they have carved out prominent positions in the market. Meanwhile, the uncomplicated allure of free TV remains strong for half the UK. -
July 12, 2018
Virtual Reality in 2018: Ready Player None?
Focus Report, ReportsYet another annual hype cycle in 2018 can’t hide a tepid consumer appetite for all VR platforms and heavy weather for the industry as a whole. The launch of Oculus GO, a standalone device at an attractive price, is a milestone for VR; nevertheless, even Facebook remains worried about reach and the state of the industry. Mobile AR is still a strategic focus for Google and Apple, producing diverse applications instead of just games, but new headsets from Microsoft and Magic Leap which promise advanced MR experiences have no launch dates. -
July 11, 2018
Media transformation is just beginning…
Focus Report, ReportsThe continued rise and dominance of Silicon Valley’s tech giants continue to vex traditional media operators and regulators, and equally, still fascinate and allure consumers and advertisers. Publishers and marketers can no longer rely on commoditised campaigns to reach target audiences, they must offer personalised and targeted experiences that consumers are willing to pay for either through attention or dollars. -
July 9, 2018
Europe’s Creative Hubs Update 2018
Market Outlook, ReportsThis third edition of Europe's Creative Hubs, produced on behalf of Bertelsmann, highlights the challenges of the digital age for enterprises of the creative industries of France, Germany and the UK from new consumer behaviors and the advent of new competitors and new forms of competition for users and customers from tech giants, Amazon, Facebook, Google and Netflix. The report calls upon policymakers in Europe to ensure a level playing field for traditional media in the key areas of taxation, competition law, privacy and data protection, highlighting the interaction of these three in the market for online advertising. -
July 4, 2018
The eSports economy – it’s just getting started…
Focus Report, ReportseSports has grown in popularity beyond being a niche form of entertainment to becoming a powerful means to engage millennial audiences. There’s significant investment from major media corporations, mainstream advertisers and professional sports franchises, demonstrating the emerging importance of eSports. -
June 29, 2018
Is CRR still critical to protect advertisers from ITV?
Focus Report, ReportsThe workings of the TV advertising market are a mystery to most. Overlaying an arcane ‘share of broadcast spend’ trading mechanism is regulation in the form of CRR, which has prevented anti-competitive activity by ITV since 2003. CRR will protect advertisers ‘for as long as needed’. Most advertisers we canvassed believe it should stay in place, but the sell-side and auditors say CRR has passed its ‘Best before’ date and is heading towards its ‘Use by’ date. We propose a review of CRR by the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to determine whether it is now helping or hindering the TV advertising ecosystem to become fit-for-purpose for the digital age. -
June 28, 2018
The home screen: distribution, discovery and data on connected TV [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsThe TV, the main screen in the house, is rapidly becoming connected to the internet, opening a new front in the battle for people's attention. Tech players, pay-TV operators, and manufacturers are all aiming to control the user interface, ad delivery and data collection, leaving incumbent broadcaster interests less well represented. To protect their position, and the principles of public service broadcasting, broadcasters will have to work with each other at home and in Europe to leverage their content and social importance. -
June 26, 2018
Sky finally renews Serie A rights until 2021
Market Outlook, ReportsItaly’s top football league awarded Sky the broadcasting rights to seven games per week from August 2018 until May 2021 for €780 million per year, up €208 million. UK-based Perform will carry three games for €193 million. Mediaset exits the market, freeing Sky from price competition. Besides Serie A, Sky added Mediaset’s Hollywood series and films to its content line up in May and will include the Champions League from August. We expect costs to rise by up to €500 million per year, which could be recouped by cuts in content and by recruiting Mediaset subscribers, notably on Sky’s new DTT feed. The best model for Perform would be to wholesale its new DAZN service to Sky, but even if a deal is found we doubt it could break even within the rights cycle. -
June 25, 2018
Hitting targets, but pushing too hard? TalkTalk Group Q4 2017/18 [...]
Focus Report, ReportsTalkTalk hit both its subscriber and EBITDA targets for 2017/18, but Q4 contained some worrying trends including core consumer revenue in decline despite strong subscriber growth, with strong business revenue growth compensating. It held fast on guidance for 2018/19, although the 15% target underlying EBITDA growth is largely driven by regulated cost cuts, and revenue growth may be (again) achieved through the business side, which will be purely wholesale following the sale of its direct business customer base. Having spent the last few years not growing retail subscribers enough in a growing market, TalkTalk is now perhaps trying to grow too fast in a mature market, putting pressure on its ARPU from new and existing customers alike. -
June 19, 2018
Advertising after the turning point: When offline is the exceptio [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsOnline advertising became the majority of all UK ad spend last year, in step with China but ahead of all other major markets. Direct response has further increased its share to 54% of UK ad spend, fuelled by the self-serve platforms of Google, Facebook and Amazon, while content media nets just 11% of the online advertising pot. We estimate that all online-delivered channels - including "pure play" online properties, broadcaster VOD, digital out-of-home and online radio - could account for well over 60% of UK ad spend by 2020, but only with improved commitment to industry governance. -
June 15, 2018
BBC iPlayer Boxsets: performance and what it tells us about on-de [...]
Focus Report, ReportsThe BBC is concerned with the performance of the iPlayer, handicapped by its inability to monetise its content. Nevertheless, as it moves towards an all-IP future, it is experimenting with new content strategies. Data from Digital-i shows that the iPlayer's Christmas Boxsets brought 360,000 unique viewers/week to the BBC portfolio; an audience which skewed encouragingly young. Furthermore, case studies of two of the programmes made available over this period—Peaky Blinders and Hard Sun—provide insight into how people consume content delivered this way, something that has been difficult to ascertain due to the major SVODs' secretive treatment of their own data.
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June 14, 2018
UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q1 2018: Diverging stra [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsUK residential communications market revenue growth strengthened in Q1, but this was entirely driven by an overlapping price increase from BT, and the decline in market volume growth continues. Continued pressure on both subscriber volume growth and ARPU has led to diverging strategies, with most operators focused on sustaining ARPU, but TalkTalk chasing volumes at the low end, with the former approach currently proving more successful. Looking forward, the benefit of BT’s price rise will fall away completely next quarter and market revenue growth will likely resume its downward trend, but the nadir may be within sight if the flight to quality persists at most operators -
June 12, 2018
Advertising Market Outlook:The Digital juggernaut continues with [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsVenture Insights expects total advertising spend to grow at a 2.7% CAGR to $17.4bn in 2022. Digital will account for the majority of the growth in AdEx through our forecast horizon increasing from 49% of the market today to 66% by 2022. While we see risks to TV audiences and hence ad revenues, we believe the TV model is far from dead. TV can continue to attract significant audience reach (and engagement) but it must evolve to stay relevant. Overall we forecast -3.7% CAGR (to FY22) for TV AdEx. -
June 11, 2018
Disruption in Premier League football? 2018 auction finally over
Focus Report, ReportsThe latest auction of live Premier League broadcast rights commencing in 2019/20 has concluded at last, with three different winners for the first time. The total sum has not been confirmed, but it looks to be down c. 10% from the previous auction at £1.55 billion per season—still substantial, and not far off the BBC’s entire TV content budget. As we predicted, Sky and BT remain dominant, winning 180 of the 200 games per season, whilst new entrant Amazon picked up one of the leftover packages at what looks to be a very low price. -
June 8, 2018
UK mobile market Q1 2018: Primed for revenue acceleration
Market Outlook, ReportsService revenue growth for the UK mobile market improved in the first quarter of the year, lifting from 1.0% to 1.2%. There was an easing of the EU roaming regulatory impact helping growth improve, but the SIM-only drag likely grew to counteract this, suggesting a modest underlying improvement overall. We expect continued market growth improvement in the coming year due to a number of tailwinds, namely annual price rises, the arrival of IFRS 15, and the EU roaming impact dropping out. The fundamentals of the market remain solid: competition is rational; pricing is firm; data demand is strongly rising; supply is partially constrained; MVNOs and convergence do not appear a threat. -
June 6, 2018
Football embraces Chinese ‘hot’ money – at a risk
Focus Report, ReportsIn a display of chutzpah, Mediapro acquired the Ligue 1 domestic broadcasting rights from 2020-24 in what is the most disruptive shock to the French broadcasting industry in a generation; one that is likely to accelerate Canal+’s decline, force a review of the outdated regulatory framework, and possibly spur an M&A spree. The Mediapro move only makes sense as a highly speculative bid to resell the rights, or a dedicated channel, to French platforms in 2020. The odds are high that the broker ultimately fails to fulfil the contract, as just happened in Italy, where Sky is now expected to get the Serie A licence. Precedents of new entrants acquiring domestic top-flight rights bode poorly for Mediapro, and for the league. The Ligue 1 may live to regret the introduction of a ‘re-sell right’ into its licensing terms. -
June 4, 2018
News brands and reader subscriptions: Towards a sustainable futur [...]
Focus Report, ReportsPrint remains the primary revenue driver for most newspapers, but after 20 years of online news publishing we ask the critical question: how will publishers sustain newsrooms at scale when print has disappeared, or has contracted to a weekend luxury experience? The question needs to be answered in the context of both: 1) Rapidly declining advertising revenues in print media; and 2) A tiny and shrinking market share of digital advertising revenues. We believe these circumstances strongly imply the race for audience scale is more investor fallacy than a sustainable business prize; and besides, over-reliance on the advertising market for quality content provision is unappealing, particularly to proudly independent news publishers. Reader revenue, long assumed to be an impossibility for general quality digital news services, is the only answer. Registrations, membership and subscription models are being explored, tested, adopted or exploited by almost every major quality news provider in the US and Europe. The transition to subscription is hugely attractive, but requires first and foremost a new editorial strategy, requiring a wholesale business transformation. -
May 31, 2018
French, Spanish and Italian telcos won’t bankroll further footb [...]
Focus Report, ReportsThe rights auction for France’s Ligue 1 will be held on 29 May. With Altice’s struggling subsidiary SFR unlikely to bid, Canal+ and BeIN Sports may not offer enough to meet reserve prices, triggering a postponement of the auction. In Spain, stiff fixed-line competition is shifting battlegrounds from football to scripted content. The Champions League has yet to sign up a platform for next season, while the upcoming 2019-22 La Liga rights auction may well fail to increase domestic revenues. With just 12 weeks before next season kicks off, Italy’s Serie A is also yet to secure a broadcaster, although we expect the league to back down and settle with Sky. In this deflationary environment, top clubs are eyeing a new Club Word Cup as an extra revenue stream – running the risk of further widening the financial chasm between themselves and smaller clubs.
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NewJuly 20, 2018
Focus back on ARPU: TalkTalk Group Q1 2018/19 results
Focus Report, ReportsTalkTalk had another strong quarter for broadband net adds, adding 80k versus its full year target of 150k+. All of this was due to strong wholesale, with retail net adds slightly negative, although in the market and seasonal context even this retail performance is quite respectable. On-net revenue growth improved strongly to around 4%, with its ARPU decline moderating to 2%, and ARPU should be helped further by price increases for existing and new customers alike in July. TalkTalk therefore looks well placed to hit full year targets, albeit with considerable help from its wholesale customers and some aggressive price increases. The focus back onto ARPU and away from (expensively) chasing retail subscriber growth is nonetheless to be applauded. -
FreeJuly 13, 2018
5G Update July 2018 – auctions caps, potential vendor bans and [...]
Free Sample, ReportsRegulatory announcements regarding 5G will affect competition dynamics as the first 5G services are closer to launch. Internationally, there is excitement but also caution as the potential high price of providing 5G services will mean expected benefits such as unlimited mobile plans prove to be difficult to justify economically.$0.00Sector Telecom. -
July 12, 2018
Virtual Reality in 2018: Ready Player None?
Focus Report, ReportsYet another annual hype cycle in 2018 can’t hide a tepid consumer appetite for all VR platforms and heavy weather for the industry as a whole. The launch of Oculus GO, a standalone device at an attractive price, is a milestone for VR; nevertheless, even Facebook remains worried about reach and the state of the industry. Mobile AR is still a strategic focus for Google and Apple, producing diverse applications instead of just games, but new headsets from Microsoft and Magic Leap which promise advanced MR experiences have no launch dates. -
June 29, 2018
Is CRR still critical to protect advertisers from ITV?
Focus Report, ReportsThe workings of the TV advertising market are a mystery to most. Overlaying an arcane ‘share of broadcast spend’ trading mechanism is regulation in the form of CRR, which has prevented anti-competitive activity by ITV since 2003. CRR will protect advertisers ‘for as long as needed’. Most advertisers we canvassed believe it should stay in place, but the sell-side and auditors say CRR has passed its ‘Best before’ date and is heading towards its ‘Use by’ date. We propose a review of CRR by the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to determine whether it is now helping or hindering the TV advertising ecosystem to become fit-for-purpose for the digital age. -
June 28, 2018
The home screen: distribution, discovery and data on connected TV [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsThe TV, the main screen in the house, is rapidly becoming connected to the internet, opening a new front in the battle for people's attention. Tech players, pay-TV operators, and manufacturers are all aiming to control the user interface, ad delivery and data collection, leaving incumbent broadcaster interests less well represented. To protect their position, and the principles of public service broadcasting, broadcasters will have to work with each other at home and in Europe to leverage their content and social importance. -
June 27, 2018
‘Telstra 2022’ – the inevitable end game of Australia’s n [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsTelstra has been on the path to structural separation ever since Senator Conroy came up with his plan for the nbn back in 2009. With its one-off nbn payments winding down, Telstra had no choice but to overhaul its business structure, structurally separate its assets & significantly reduce headcount. But this strategy comes with major implementation risk and any mis-steps could quickly negate the expected benefits. -
June 26, 2018
Sky finally renews Serie A rights until 2021
Market Outlook, ReportsItaly’s top football league awarded Sky the broadcasting rights to seven games per week from August 2018 until May 2021 for €780 million per year, up €208 million. UK-based Perform will carry three games for €193 million. Mediaset exits the market, freeing Sky from price competition. Besides Serie A, Sky added Mediaset’s Hollywood series and films to its content line up in May and will include the Champions League from August. We expect costs to rise by up to €500 million per year, which could be recouped by cuts in content and by recruiting Mediaset subscribers, notably on Sky’s new DTT feed. The best model for Perform would be to wholesale its new DAZN service to Sky, but even if a deal is found we doubt it could break even within the rights cycle. -
June 25, 2018
Hitting targets, but pushing too hard? TalkTalk Group Q4 2017/18 [...]
Focus Report, ReportsTalkTalk hit both its subscriber and EBITDA targets for 2017/18, but Q4 contained some worrying trends including core consumer revenue in decline despite strong subscriber growth, with strong business revenue growth compensating. It held fast on guidance for 2018/19, although the 15% target underlying EBITDA growth is largely driven by regulated cost cuts, and revenue growth may be (again) achieved through the business side, which will be purely wholesale following the sale of its direct business customer base. Having spent the last few years not growing retail subscribers enough in a growing market, TalkTalk is now perhaps trying to grow too fast in a mature market, putting pressure on its ARPU from new and existing customers alike. -
June 21, 2018
LEO Satellites: The race to connect the unconnected
Market Outlook, ReportsTraditional satellites have struggled to meet the connectivity requirements of current IoT applications and are expensive for existing segment users. Low Earth Orbit satellite technologies can complement traditional satellite and terrestrial services to solve IoT connectivity issues and the growing broadband digital divide. -
June 20, 2018
European mobile in Q1 2018: North–South divide to exacerbate
Market Outlook, ReportsIn this report we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or incomplete, and we have updated previous period figures where better information has come to light. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request. -
June 15, 2018
BBC iPlayer Boxsets: performance and what it tells us about on-de [...]
Focus Report, ReportsThe BBC is concerned with the performance of the iPlayer, handicapped by its inability to monetise its content. Nevertheless, as it moves towards an all-IP future, it is experimenting with new content strategies. Data from Digital-i shows that the iPlayer's Christmas Boxsets brought 360,000 unique viewers/week to the BBC portfolio; an audience which skewed encouragingly young. Furthermore, case studies of two of the programmes made available over this period—Peaky Blinders and Hard Sun—provide insight into how people consume content delivered this way, something that has been difficult to ascertain due to the major SVODs' secretive treatment of their own data.
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June 14, 2018
UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q1 2018: Diverging stra [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsUK residential communications market revenue growth strengthened in Q1, but this was entirely driven by an overlapping price increase from BT, and the decline in market volume growth continues. Continued pressure on both subscriber volume growth and ARPU has led to diverging strategies, with most operators focused on sustaining ARPU, but TalkTalk chasing volumes at the low end, with the former approach currently proving more successful. Looking forward, the benefit of BT’s price rise will fall away completely next quarter and market revenue growth will likely resume its downward trend, but the nadir may be within sight if the flight to quality persists at most operators -
June 8, 2018
UK mobile market Q1 2018: Primed for revenue acceleration
Market Outlook, ReportsService revenue growth for the UK mobile market improved in the first quarter of the year, lifting from 1.0% to 1.2%. There was an easing of the EU roaming regulatory impact helping growth improve, but the SIM-only drag likely grew to counteract this, suggesting a modest underlying improvement overall. We expect continued market growth improvement in the coming year due to a number of tailwinds, namely annual price rises, the arrival of IFRS 15, and the EU roaming impact dropping out. The fundamentals of the market remain solid: competition is rational; pricing is firm; data demand is strongly rising; supply is partially constrained; MVNOs and convergence do not appear a threat. -
June 6, 2018
Football embraces Chinese ‘hot’ money – at a risk
Focus Report, ReportsIn a display of chutzpah, Mediapro acquired the Ligue 1 domestic broadcasting rights from 2020-24 in what is the most disruptive shock to the French broadcasting industry in a generation; one that is likely to accelerate Canal+’s decline, force a review of the outdated regulatory framework, and possibly spur an M&A spree. The Mediapro move only makes sense as a highly speculative bid to resell the rights, or a dedicated channel, to French platforms in 2020. The odds are high that the broker ultimately fails to fulfil the contract, as just happened in Italy, where Sky is now expected to get the Serie A licence. Precedents of new entrants acquiring domestic top-flight rights bode poorly for Mediapro, and for the league. The Ligue 1 may live to regret the introduction of a ‘re-sell right’ into its licensing terms. -
June 4, 2018
News brands and reader subscriptions: Towards a sustainable futur [...]
Focus Report, ReportsPrint remains the primary revenue driver for most newspapers, but after 20 years of online news publishing we ask the critical question: how will publishers sustain newsrooms at scale when print has disappeared, or has contracted to a weekend luxury experience? The question needs to be answered in the context of both: 1) Rapidly declining advertising revenues in print media; and 2) A tiny and shrinking market share of digital advertising revenues. We believe these circumstances strongly imply the race for audience scale is more investor fallacy than a sustainable business prize; and besides, over-reliance on the advertising market for quality content provision is unappealing, particularly to proudly independent news publishers. Reader revenue, long assumed to be an impossibility for general quality digital news services, is the only answer. Registrations, membership and subscription models are being explored, tested, adopted or exploited by almost every major quality news provider in the US and Europe. The transition to subscription is hugely attractive, but requires first and foremost a new editorial strategy, requiring a wholesale business transformation. -
May 31, 2018
French, Spanish and Italian telcos won’t bankroll further footb [...]
Focus Report, ReportsThe rights auction for France’s Ligue 1 will be held on 29 May. With Altice’s struggling subsidiary SFR unlikely to bid, Canal+ and BeIN Sports may not offer enough to meet reserve prices, triggering a postponement of the auction. In Spain, stiff fixed-line competition is shifting battlegrounds from football to scripted content. The Champions League has yet to sign up a platform for next season, while the upcoming 2019-22 La Liga rights auction may well fail to increase domestic revenues. With just 12 weeks before next season kicks off, Italy’s Serie A is also yet to secure a broadcaster, although we expect the league to back down and settle with Sky. In this deflationary environment, top clubs are eyeing a new Club Word Cup as an extra revenue stream – running the risk of further widening the financial chasm between themselves and smaller clubs. -
May 30, 2018
BT new Consumer strategy: Converging, but in a good way
Flash Report, ReportsBT has emphasised ‘convergence’ in its new Consumer strategy, but it has avoided most of the usual fixed-mobile convergence mistakes, with separate brands, minimal discounting and only slightly flawed converged products. The general strategy is to improve customer service to improve market share trends (particularly in broadband), enable premium products/positioning, and allow for cross-selling of a strong set of converged (in a broader sense) products, which is very sensible in our view. It does require extra spending in the short-term to improve customer service and the perception thereof (particularly in broadband) before premium positioning and cross-selling can be effective, therefore improved trends at the bottom line may take some time to come through. -
May 28, 2018
Strategically challenged: Vodafone Q4 2017/18 results
Focus Report, Market Outlook, ReportsThe major change in trend evidenced in Vodafone’s Q4 results was a decline in mobile service revenue growth in Germany by 2ppts on the December quarter, in spite of record contract net adds and improving growth trends from its competitors. At least part of this deterioration is likely due to its strategic focus on converged products; we estimate discounts of around one third and question the rationale for this initiative, particularly given the admission that this is distracting from the core mobile business. Vodafone’s guidance for 1-5% group EBITDA growth next year reflects the challenging outlook and uncertainty in southern European markets, a more positive view on the UK, with Vodafone’s German strategy a major swing factor.Sector Telecom. -
May 24, 2018
European video-on-demand: Playing catch-up to the UK
Focus Report, ReportsThe UK continues to lead the EU5 in take-up and consumption of video-on-demand services, with close cultural alignment and a historic williness to pay for TV content making it a receptive home for US SVODs. Netflix dominates in most markets, benefiting from high-profile US imports and big-budget local productions. Local SVODs are struggling, with those operated by FTA broadcasters facing considerable challenges. Collaboration between local broadcasters and pay-TV platforms is essential if they are to hold at bay the threat of Netflix and co., with an increasingly favourable regulatory environment opening the door for unprecedented collaboration. -
May 23, 2018
BT Q4 2017/18 results: Slowing broadband bites, but recovery pos [...]
Flash Report, ReportsBT Group met expectations for the 2017/18 financial year, but future guidance is very modest compared to previous performance and financial market expectations, with 2018/19 revenue and EBITDA both guided to decline by around 2% with capex rising. In our view, this weakened outlook is primarily driven by the ongoing slowdown and increasing competitiveness of the UK broadband market, with operating metrics at BT Consumer particularly weak. BT’s re-vamped strategy looks good in parts, and could deliver the incremental improvements necessary to outperform the new (much more modest) expectations, helped by existing – and likely continued – strength in mobile.