Venture Insights

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  • New
    February 13, 2019

    AI in Insurance: Disruption Assured

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    Artificial intelligence (AI) has enormous potential to disrupt across the data- and process-heavy insurance value chain. The growth of AI startups and adoption of (AI) by Australian insurers began in earnest over the last two years. The approach taken so far is one of collaboration rather than direct competition between incumbents and disruptors.
  • New
    February 11, 2019

    REA Group 1HFY19 update: growth in a challenging environment

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    On 8th February 2019, REA Group reports its 1HFY19 earnings. Core Australian business continues to drive earnings and revenue growth in spite of a tough macro environment but a write-down in the Asia business impacted earnings for 1HFY19.
  • New
    February 11, 2019

    UK TV set viewing trends: linear audiences tumble in 2018

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    2018 was another bad year for traditional TV set viewing of broadcast channels, with a 5% decline year-on-year—its steepest since 2011. The decline accelerated among most demographics, but particularly for 16-34s, down 13% YOY from their already relatively low levels of TV viewing. Unmatched use, which includes viewing to Netflix, Amazon and YouTube, continues to grow, up 16% YOY, with both linear viewing and unmatched use becoming increasingly solitary activities. While heavier linear TV viewers are accounting for a greater proportion of linear TV viewing, it is the lighter TV viewers that are accounting for a greater proportion of unmatched use. Within the broadcast ecosystem, ITV had the strongest 2018 thanks to the FIFA World Cup, more Coronation Street, and Love Island. Most other broadcasters struggled in terms of viewing share, but the maturity of the market means major shifts continue to be rare.
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  • February 7, 2019

    TPGs merger strategy must focus on potential merger undertakings [...]

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    The ACCC has extended its decision time for the proposed TPG-VHA merger and has raised preliminary concerns that it will lead to a substantial lessening of competition. TPG has announced that it has ceased the rollout of its mobile network. Our report looks at the likelihood of whether the TPG/VHA merger will be approved given the potential no-merger test options which the ACCC could consider. 
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  • February 6, 2019

    New Zealand Mobile Market Outlook

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    The New Zealand mobile market had been traditionally characterised as an oligopoly that is dominated by the prepaid segment with high prices, lack of product differentiation and low usage. However, this market is about to see a rise in competitive intensity driven by 2degrees’ move to gain share in the lucrative postpaid and business mobile segments. We believe Vodafone NZ is most at risk and could lose approximately 3% of its subscriber market share by 2022. The emergence of utility companies offering mobile products will also increase competition and create more “sticky” consumers. We forecast the mobile market will remain the largest segment in the telco market with NZ$3.2bn revenue by 2022.
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  • January 30, 2019

    Netcomm Wireless: From modems to m2m to fixed wireless and 5G

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    In the past six years, NetComm Wireless has transformed itself from internet modem manufacturer to a leading telco equipment supplier in a range of complex wireless and fixed line technologies to Tier 1 telcos across the world. With 5G just around the corner, NetComm is investing heavily to leverage its experience in fixed wireless and position itself as a leading supplier of fixed wireless technology to major telcos across the world.
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  • January 30, 2019

    TPG’s mobile announcement will shift focus to the ongoing compe [...]

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    TPGs decision to cease its mobile rollout reduces the prospects for a 4th mobile operator in Australia. The MVNO market is highly competitive in metro regions and looks set to become stronger. We expect the ACCC to turn its focus on the ongoing competitiveness of the MVNO market.
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  • January 29, 2019

    AI in Financial Services: Who wins the future of banking?

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    Financial services are ripe for AI disruption; they are data-heavy, with significant potential for automation. The question is not if, but how fast, and how profoundly, would AI reshape the competitive landscape. In Australia, the AI ecosystem is exciting, but has yet to reach critical mass.
  • January 22, 2019

    New Zealand Telco Market Outlook

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    We expect the overall retail telco market to remain flat (2018-2022 CAGR 0.0%) with mobile growth driven by a move to post-paid plans and 4G/5G to offset the structural decline in fixed voice.  Total retail revenues will reach NZ$5.4bn in 2022. With UFB deployment well on track and increasing 4G penetration, we expect a rise in competitive intensity as players look to capture share across a broader set of product offerings. Fixed voice continues its structural decline as subscribers shun the landline and migrate away from standalone fixed voice services to mobile bundles and broadband + VOIP bundles. The UFB rollout is on track to reach 80% of the population by the end of 2019 and has been recently extended by the Government to cover up to 87% of the population by 2022. The NZ Government recently announced a set of reforms including a move towards utility-style regulation, copper deregulation in areas where UFB is available, and increased oversight over quality and reliability of broadband services.
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  • January 16, 2019

    Disruption in Australian Super: Only skin deep?

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    Australia’s superannuation system is broadly admired. Disruptive entrants have thus far focused on user experience, ethical alignment and branding rather than fees or performance. However, regulatory change will drive significant shifts in the industry in the coming years.
  • January 15, 2019

    Six ways 5G will change the future of media and entertainment

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    The media industry has been at the receiving end of significant disruption and innovation in the past decade. With 5G around the corner, the media industry is set for another round of innovation albeit this time with the opportunity to significantly improve their content offerings and provide a more richer video experience for consumers.
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  • December 17, 2018

    Australia Out-of-Home Market Outlook

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    As traditional media segments face the onslaught of digital, OOH advertising stands out as the only old media medium that is seeing sustained growth. Traditionally OOH was mostly a real estate play but with digitalisation, it’s now becoming a true digital medium that synergises with other digital media i.e. acquisitions by OOH of Junkee and increasingly personalisation not just on a small scale but on a large scale. The overall OOH market has grown at a 13.8% CAGR from FY14 to FY17. We forecast it grow at a 5.4% from FY17 to FY22. With more than A$1.75bn of M&A activity in the middle of CY2018, the Australian OOH market has gone from being dominated by four major players to being ruled by a just two major players, effectively giving rise to a ‘Duopoly’.  
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  • December 13, 2018

    ACCC Digital Platforms Inquiry – Google and Facebook have just [...]

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    On 11th December 2018, the ACCC released its preliminary report on the Digital Platforms Inquiry, and one thing is certain – Google and Facebook won’t be happy after reading it. The draft recommendations are extensive and call for significant changes to privacy and consumer protection laws and new regulatory oversight to monitor and curb the market power exerted by Google and Facebook.
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  • December 11, 2018

    5G Update December 2018 – Telstra leading the race to 5G

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    Q4 2018 has been a busy time for 5G players with the government auctioning valuable spectrum bands and an update on Telstra’s progress on 5G. Australia is tracking well to have initial 5G services in 2019. This will enable strong growth in devices and mobile data consumption.
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  • December 5, 2018

    Classifieds Marketing Outlook: All Segments

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    For decades, classifieds were the domain of newspapers, which offered advertisers cheap ads sorted under specific categories. The ads gave shoppers an easy way to browse various local offers, usually from private sellers. But, the jump from print to digital was inevitable and has proven itself to be quite lucrative for digital players. However, in the past few years, as the online classifieds market matures, leading digital classifieds players are attempting to diversify their revenues into new products and services. This is being driven by the need to ensure new sources of revenue growth and to drive customer acquisition and loyalty. In the real estate market, REA and Domain have introduced adjacent services such as mortgage broking and data analytics. In the recruitment market, LinkedIn and SEEK have been investing in technology companies involved in temporary hire, skill development, alternative recruitment and employee engagement.
  • November 29, 2018

    Automotive Marketing Outlook 2018

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    After hitting record highs in March 2018, new car sales have recorded their seventh straight month of declining sales numbers as declining property prices and higher fuel costs are driving households to curb big-ticket purchases. Vehicle sales for October 2018 were 90,178 vehicles, down 5.3% YoY. Passenger cars declined 23.6% YoY driven in part by the preference for Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs) which accounted for 44% of all new car sales in Australia for October 2018. While disruptors such as carsharing platforms (carnextdoor and goget) are reducing the need for car-ownership, there hasn’t been any visible impact on the automotive advertising market. We forecast Automotive Display Adex to grow at a 13.2% CAGR through to 2022 to A$891.2mn. Carsales is one of the largest players in the Australian online auto advertising market with a share of 37% in car listing volumes. Its average session duration is approximately two times that of its closest competitor, while the average number of daily unique visitors to its website is 57% higher.
  • Free
    November 28, 2018

    Telemedicine and AI Outlook in Primary Care

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    In this report, we provide a brief overview of ‘telemedicine’ including a 2035 forecast of the impact of telehealth tools, both human and artificial intelligence, in relation to ‘unreferred medical services’2 in the primary health market. This report does not assess or analyse the full potential for telemedicine which derives from other applications, such as remote surgical operations, sharing of digital health records or remote patient monitoring. These activities clearly would have significant additional benefits to the those explored in this report. The report outlines the importance of primary care in shaping Australian health and seizing ever-increasing health costs.
  • Free
    November 27, 2018

    Telemedicine in Australia

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    In this report, we provide a brief overview of ‘telemedicine’ and business models associated with provision of telemedicine services along with barriers that may slow down adoption of the online tool. Venture Insights believes that telemedicine will play an important tool in scoping the primary care in Australia- changing the way GPs deliver their services. We believe that the inefficiencies in healthcare, growing health costs and rising demand for quality care lead to a rising need for disruption: tools that can reduce costs while driving access to care.
  • November 19, 2018

    Australian Mobile Telco Market Outlook

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    The Australian mobile market has been traditionally characterised as a mature market with steady growth driven by population growth and mobile broadband. However, this market is about to see strong innovation (5G) and disruption (TPG-Vodafone merger) in the next few years. We forecast the mobile market will remain the largest segment in the overall telco market with A$22.3bn in revenue by 2022. With the merger between TPG and Vodafone to form a third full service telco in the market, we expect the competitive intensity to increase with incumbents facing pricing and margin pressure from 2018-19 onwards. However, despite TPG’s aggressive initial pricing and service offering, at this stage we have been conservative in our estimates with respect to TPG-Vodafone’s impact on incumbent market shares as we expect a gradual subscriber take-up of the network over 2018-2022. The arrival of 5G and emergence of wireless access to the Internet as an alternative to fixed broadband means that the mobile market will continue to experience strong growth, with ARPUs steadying. Venture Insights believes that 5G coupled with IoT will enable the transition from a connectivity based revenue model to a services based revenue model for mobile operators.
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  • November 15, 2018

    UBS Conference: What could the media landscape look like in 5 yea [...]

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    Venture Insights attended the annual UBS Investors Conference for 2018 on 12th and 13th November, with a number of interesting panels across the two days. The participants of the Media panel were unanimous in their view that while digital remains an important area of growth, traditional media operators are starting to get their act together and are aligning their offerings more closely with customer preferences.
  • November 15, 2018

    UBS Australasia Conference – 5G’s accelerating progress

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    Venture Insights attended the annual UBS Investors Conference for 2018 on 12th and 13th November, with a number of interesting panels across the two days. The participants of the 5G panel moderated by Venture Insights commented on the positive effects 5G will have on not just the telco industry but also verticals such as healthcare, transportation and manufacturing.
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  • November 12, 2018

    Radcomms 2018 & the upcoming 3.6GHz spectrum auctions

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    ACMA’s premier conference Radcomms 2018 was held on October 30-31 with industry experts presenting and discussing a range of topical issues regarding spectrum regulation, new emerging trends and industry policies. Australia’s spectrum regulation should be fast tracked to enable telcos to deploy next generation technologies faster to consumers. We expect strong competition for spectrum in the upcoming 3.6GHz auction.
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  • November 6, 2018

    Recruitment Marketing Outlook

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    The Net Employment Outlook for 2018 for Australia has improved compared to CY2017—Employment Outlook peaked at 13% (a six-year high) in March 2018, before falling to 11% in September 2018. Unemployment rate decreased to 5.0% (a six-year low) in September 2018 from 5.5% in August 2017. Seek is the dominant player in the job boards industry, while LinkedIn is a dominant player in the Professional Networks space. While alternative job boards exist, they are unlikely to challenge Seek’s dominance at least in the Australian market. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning are transforming the industry by allowing recruitment companies to offer better job recommendations and data driven insights    
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  • Free
    November 2, 2018

    AI and Genomics in Healthcare

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    Given the unsustainability of health expenditure growth rates, we explore how AI and genomics might assist Australia to achieve higher quality health services at lower costs. We provide a definition and analyse main drivers and impacts of implementing AI and genomics in medicine.