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January 27, 2021CES 2021: Consumer tech show switches on to the pandemic
Flash Report, ReportsThe home is now a bastion of more activity than ever before, from working to entertaining to socialising—more is being demanded of the domestic space—and in 2021 the consumer tech show offered a more holistic approach to the Internet of Things (IoT), accepting a ‘new normal’ would be centred on the home, even as the effects of the pandemic recede. -
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January 22, 2021Netflix Q4 2020 results: 200 million subs with cash piling up
Flash Report, ReportsNetflix believes that it no longer needs to raise external financing for its day-to-day operations
This has come quicker than expected: the company had previously gone from the opaque “next few years” narrative it held for some time, to “rapidly closing in” on sustainable positive cashflow just last quarter, meaning that it was a “couple” of years off. One quarter later Netflix is confident its free cash flow will break even in 2021, up $1 billion on its prediction three months ago. -
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January 21, 2021Top 5 Telco Trends in 2021
Flash Report, Reports2020 was a disruptive year for everyone, including the telecommunications industry. But as a semblance of normality emerges, change in the industry continues unabated. Our top telco trends for 2021 are:- Low end operator brands seize leadership in the consumer market
- Telco infrastructure comes into play as operators seek to monetise assets
- Government refocus on regional communications as nbn rollout ends
- Enterprise market shift as nbn disrupts the fibre wholesale market
- 5G comes into its own as handset availability surges and coverage expands
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January 21, 2021(UK) Update 2021: COVID-19 and Mobility
Flash Report, Reports- The UK entered 2021 in the grip of a dangerous third wave of the pandemic, despite Lockdown 3.0 over Christmas, driving down trips taken by people to depressed levels last seen in Lockdown 1.0, reducing economic activity for Q1
- Time spent at home closely tracks the severity of lockdowns and mandates to work from home (WFH). Underpinned by the UK’s advanced digital infrastructure and services, WFH is providing resilience to Gross Value Added (GVA) creation, while staff in B2C activities are furloughed
- The City of London is emblematic of the potential for outsourced GVA creation under WFH. Its skilled and highly paid staff are too valuable to employers to risk exposure to the virus. WFH, largely preserving GVA, will anchor the future of work
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January 19, 2021(UK) TalkTalk: Mixed results, future opaque
Flash Report, Reports- TalkTalk’s latest results were mixed at best, with ARPU and revenue growth improving off a low last quarter, but net adds worsening, EBITDA falling sharply and full year EBITDA guidance suspended
- Its outlook remains challenging, with the move to high speed still a drag on EBITDA, and the migration to ultrafast a further (even greater) challenge, although this brings opportunity as well, especially if the company can move away from its discount brand focus
- Its prospective new owners highlight the need to invest in brand, systems, and full fibre capabilities to meet this challenge, but it is not clear where the money to do this is coming from, and it is also not clear if the desire to ‘reposition the brand’ includes a move upmarket
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January 15, 2021Roaming charges to return for some: Free EU roaming an optional e [...]
Flash Report, Reports- Lockdown 1.0 in March-April-May 2020 reduced mobility in London to 65% of its pre-pandemic baseline, swelling time spent at home. London’s mobility tracked a similar decline to Paris and New York City, all hugely reliant on public transport
- Easing lockdowns and good weather slowly led to a mobility recovery through the summer and early autumn, but it sharply declined again after November’s Lockdown 2.0. The mobility decline was greatest in the City of London, which is more acutely affected by working from home
- Each nation in the UK diverged slightly from September due to varying local policies adopted by England, Wales and Scotland to address their public health crises. Notably however, Lockdown 2.0 did not cause mobility to fall to the same degree as late March
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January 14, 2021(UK) COVID-19 and Mobility
Flash Report, Reports- Lockdown 1.0 in March-April-May 2020 reduced mobility in London to 65% of its pre-pandemic baseline, swelling time spent at home. London’s mobility tracked a similar decline to Paris and New York City, all hugely reliant on public transport
- Easing lockdowns and good weather slowly led to a mobility recovery through the summer and early autumn, but it sharply declined again after November’s Lockdown 2.0. The mobility decline was greatest in the City of London, which is more acutely affected by working from home
- Each nation in the UK diverged slightly from September due to varying local policies adopted by England, Wales and Scotland to address their public health crises. Notably however, Lockdown 2.0 did not cause mobility to fall to the same degree as late March
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January 13, 2021Edge Computing – defining the market and business models
Focus Report, ReportsEdge computing is, fundamentally, the placement of processing and analysis capabilities near the edge of the network close to the sources of data to achieve these objectives. This deployment requires a fairly complex value chain of resources and capabilities. As a result, it is taking time for the structure of the edge computing market to emerge, and for the required partnerships and associated business models to develop. We expect this process will take years, as edge computing grows in scale and sophistication from its current rudimentary beginnings. -
January 11, 2021(UK) Montgomery shakes news market again: JPI, third largest loca [...]
Flash Report, ReportsThe low price paid reflects the dismal prospects for print media, especially regional and local titles relative to national titles. Over the past decade, regional publications were affected at a greater rate than national counterparts by the structural decline of print circulation and advertising, resulting in significantly more closures, as well as issue frequency reductions. -
January 11, 2021Serie A TV rights auction: Deflation looms
Flash Report, ReportsOn Monday, Italy’s Serie A issued its call for tender for its broadcasting rights for the 2021-24 cycle, covering three seasons. Bids are due by 26 January. Currently, Sky holds exclusive coverage of seven games per week with the remaining three fixtures carried by DAZN. -
January 8, 2021Future to buy GoCompare Diversification shifts further to ecommer [...]
Focus Report, Reports- Publisher Future paid a premium to acquire listed GoCo, the financial services comparison platform, for a cash and shares deal valued at £594 million, provided GoCo shareholders approve the deal at a vote in January
- For Future, the purchase of GoCo gives it a platform for consumers for whom the service is free, deepens its tech stack and diversifies revenues to affiliate fees earned from ecommerce
- Future's strategy of growth by acquisition has helped offset structural decline in the print portion of the business. The question is whether GoCo will generate sufficient returns to justify the premium paid
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January 8, 2021Football rights economics: Low broadcasting competition underpins [...]
Focus Report, Reports- Beyond the short-term impact of the COVID crisis, the value of football rights in Europe is heading down
- Lower competitive intensity in the broadcasting market is the main reason, and looks unlikely to be reversed
- The leagues must consider long-term initiatives to broaden demand—cash fixes risk worsening their structural problems
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January 7, 2021Battery backup for telco infrastructure: options and necessity
Focus Report, ReportsThe 2019-20 bushfire season has renewed the focus on battery backup for telco infrastructure. About 88% of the tower outages were caused by power failure and only 1% was were due to direct fire damage. Thus, a better power backup could have significantly improved the emergency response during the bushfires by reducing tower outages. -
January 4, 2021Steady now, brighter outlook: European mobile in Q3 2020
Focus Report, Reports- Mobile growth improved very marginally to -3.6% this quarter as roaming revenues were harder hit and competitive intensity bounced back, but usage recovered from the lockdowns in Q2 and cuts to intra-EU calls were annualised
- Italy’s fortunes took a turn for the worse as roaming hit particularly hard and Iliad resurged. After a spate of downgrades to the outlook last quarter, there were some tentative upgrades in Q3 although the tone remains cautious
- The diminished drag from roaming is the primary positive driver from here. Although lockdowns of some degree are in place in Q4, their impact will be less severe than those in Q2
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December 16, 2020Brighter outlook: UK mobile market in Q3 2020
Focus Report, ReportsThe UK mobile market outlook is better as the COVID impact eases overall thanks to reduced roaming impact, but the November lockdown (including store closures) will drag. Having become more cautious last quarter, many of the European operators, including BT and Vodafone, have edged their EBITDA outlook up very slightly.- Service revenue declines stabilised at -7% this quarter with a myriad of factors at play: roaming worsening, the end of lockdown taking some pressure off, B2B a mixed bag, and the annualisation of cuts to intra-EU calls
- Ofcom’s second 5G auction will be a focus in January. We expect selective bidding, proceeds of up to £2.7bn, and some wrangling over spectrum trading
- The outlook is better from here as the drag from roaming eases, in contract price rises step up from the spring, Carphone Warehouse diminishes as a factor in the market, and the prospect of consolidation is still on the table
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December 16, 2020Taking Free-to-Air TV online in Australia: opportunities and chal [...]
Focus Report, Free Sample, ReportsThe report is designed to enumerate the key technical, commercial and equity issues that would arise in the course of such a migration, providing insights and identifying problems that would need to be addressed. Amongst other things, this requires an examination of Australia’s digital infrastructure and its capacity to support television distribution, the media and telecommunications business models that would need to be adapted, and the response of households to the changes in consumer technology that would be required. A household survey was also undertaken to inform this report, and details are included in the Appendix. The report is not a proposal that free-to-air television should entirely move to online delivery, nor is it a strategy to get there. Nor is it a cost-benefit analysis. -
December 15, 2020Amazon Prime on Sky Q: Now almost fully aggregated
Flash Report, ReportsSky has agreed to host Amazon Prime Video on its platform, effective today. The Amazon app appears in the App section of Sky Q set-top-boxes, which in the UK places it alongside the existing icons of BBC iPlayer, Netflix, Discovery+, Disney+, YouTube and Spotify (it is currently third in prominence). -
December 11, 2020Discovery+ launch An opportunity to prove essential
Flash Report, ReportsDiscovery has announced the global rollout of its direct-to-consumer (DTC) service, Discovery+. In the US, Discovery has a relatively straightforward story to tell: a stable of channels focused on "real life" content with a single business model—basic cable—pivoting towards DTC distribution -
December 10, 2020
2021 spectrum auction: Uncertainty prevails (UK)
Flash Report, ReportsCOVID, potential consolidation, implications for ALF pricing and non-contiguous blocks have conspired to make the forthcoming second 5G spectrum auction a highly complicated affair. -
December 9, 2020Australian Data Centres and Submarine Cables Outlook
Market Outlook, ReportsData centres embracing a hyperscale future, driven by cloud migrations and increasing international traffic through submarine cables. -
December 3, 2020Australia Out-of-Home Market Outlook Report
Market Outlook, ReportsThe Australian Out-of-Home (OOH) market had been growing continuously until it was hit by COVID in 2020. The market grew at 9% CAGR in the 8 years to FY19 as digital revenues took off but declined by 18% YoY in FY20. -
December 2, 2020Recovery…of sorts: UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trend [...]
Flash Report, Reports- Consumer broadband, telephony and pay TV market revenue growth recovered to -2% in Q3 (from -6% in Q2), with the recovery in premium sports channel revenue being partially mitigated by a worsening in backbook pricing pressure at BT
- This is however still weaker than pre-COVID levels, with said backbooking pricing pressure affecting all operators to some extent, and intensifying as Ofcom-mandated end-of-contract notifications are rolled out, with annual best tariff notification due over the next few months
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December 2, 2020BBC licence fee settlement : Further cuts will wound the sector
Flash Report, ReportsOn 10 November, Oliver Dowden, Secretary of State (SoS) for the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) wrote to the BBC to confirm the scope and the timing of the next licence fee settlement, which will cover the period from 2022 to 2027. Previous settlements, conducted without public pressure or scrutiny, have left the BBC with more obligations and less to spend on them, at a time when licence fee income is already around 30% lower than it would have been had it kept pace with inflation and not been given additional spending obligations. In response, the Corporation has undergone extensive programmes of cost-cutting and rationalisation of resources. While this has made the BBC leaner in an operational sense, there is now little fat to absorb further cuts to income. With the commitment to fixed long-term obligations such as its pension deficit, the threat remains that there will be less to spend on local and quality content, tech, regionality, and diversity, and as such, it cannot be expected that the BBC will continue to return the same kinds and volumes of value to the wider creative economy, as it is structured for. -
November 26, 2020Google search in the dock: Department of Justice targets mobile b [...]
Flash Report, ReportsThe US Department of Justice (DoJ) is bringing an antitrust case against Google under Section 2 of the Sherman Act, accusing it of operating an illegal monopoly for internet search and search advertising in its home market of the US. Although a monopoly by itself is not illegal in the US, Google is accused of maintaining its search monopoly by unlawful means. The case targets Google's licensing of its Android operating system and exclusionary agreements with Apple for its devices that allow Google to be the default search provider on most mobile devices in the US.