European mobile in Q1 2020 – Robust until recession

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European mobile in Q1 2020 – Robust until recession

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European mobile in Q1 2020 – Robust until recession
European mobile service revenue growth strengthened very slightly to -0.3% this quarter but, with many positive and negative factors at play, it would be wrong to conclude that we evidenced a convincing improvement in momentum
Most operators have reiterated their financial guidance in spite of COVID-19 but there is caution from Vodafone and those exposed to sports rights (BT and Telefonica)
The outlook benefits from continued lockdown measures (reducing churn and spin-down) and the annualisation of some financial drags from the middle of next quarter. However, competition in Spain remains intense and the sector is exposed to any economic downturn

Contents

Reported and underlying revenue growth

Country analysis

Appendix

List of charts/tables

Service revenue growth by market

Reported mobile revenue growth—top 5 European markets

Service revenue growth by operator group

Mobile service revenue growth versus peers

Contract net adds in top 4 European markets

German converged customer net adds (000)

T-Mobile versus Vodafone contract ARPU growth

Anecdotal evidence of changes in data traffic

Europe average mobile network speeds (Mbps)

Offers to customers in Germany

Offers to customers in Spain

Offers to customers in France

Offers to customers in Italy

Offers to customers in the UK

COVID-19 related financial guidance changes (or lack thereof)

Europe ‘top 5’GDP vs service revenue growth

Residential market shares (including pay TV)

Total market shares (including pay TV)

Recent and forthcoming spectrum auctions

Spectrum auction results in Germany

IFRS 15 effect of indirect and direct mobile contract distribution

UK operator performance: neither service nor total revenue growth are perfect measures

German operator performance: neither service nor total revenue growth are perfect measures

Approaches to Huawei across Europe

Vodafone tower/network share deals

Intra-EU calling prices –Euro cents per minute prior to cuts

Potential drag from out-of-contract customers spinning down

Contract net additions (000)

Service revenue growth

Reported mobile service revenue growth by operator

Contract net additions (000)

Service revenue growth

Service revenue growth by operator