Abstract: Commercial TV ad revenue fell over 8% in FY24, and will fall again in FY25 (though at a lower rate). We anticipate a return to revenue growth in FY26. At that point, we expect commercial TV revenues to stabilise as their SVOD and AVOD competitors mature, though some revenue wildcards remain. A key question is whether this reduced industry can continue to bear a range of regulatory imposts, or whether policy reform is inevitable.