Digital is finally leading

Executive Summary

• The Advertising expenditure (AdEx) market in New Zealand is a $2.5bn industry, forecast to stay relatively stable in the next five years. We see AdEx grow at a 1.9% CAGR from CY16, to reach $2.7bn by CY21.

• This growth is underpinned by digital advertising revenues which have been historically lagging behind peer markets but have now caught up.

• Digital represented a 33% share of the total market in CY15, and will skyrocket to 53% of the market by CY21.

• Print is declining fast. The merger between NZME and Fairfax New Zealand will create one dominant player in the market and push toward even more digitisation of the segment.

• Although Terrestrial TV is still very popular in New Zealand, the segment as a whole will become less attractive as other advertising platforms rise. Television (Free-to-Air and Pay-TV) will decrease at a CAGR of 1.8% from CY16 to CY21.

• Radio listening will stay relatively flat. The overall share of the segment will only see a minor decrease, from an 11% share of the overall ad spend market to a 10% share by 2021.

• Though they are small segments in the market, Outdoor and Cinema show signs of growth.