Abstract: In FY24, we estimate that mobile constituted 65% of total consumer telecommunications revenue in Australia. We forecast this share will remain flat over the FY24/29 forecast period, as growth flows through on both the mobile and fixed markets, with consumer broadband growth offsetting consumer fixed voice decline. Overall, we expect consumer mobile revenue (both service and hardware) to grow at a CAGR of 3.6% over FY24/29 to reach $18,529m in FY29.

We forecast a 2.0% CAGR growth in blended consumer ARPU over FY24/29. Combined with population growth and some migration to higher allowance plans, we expect 4.7% CAGR growth in consumer mobile service revenue over the same period, reaching $14,301m in FY29.