Report Overview

UK economic outlook: Roaring retail in Q4


GDP recovery trend continues into 2022, but at the cost of rising CPI inflation

Total weekly hours worked in the UK remain 2.4% below 2019 average

Composition of GDP growth in Q3 2021: strengths and weaknesses

Inflation drives the dynamic of the ‘new normal’, as price rises impact the basket

Brexit is knocking trade and reducing supply options for the UK

Consumer retail habits are partly shifting back to the old normal

Q4 retail will continue to grow as rising costs hit consumers


Tables and Figures

GDP projection based on constant interest rates at 0.1%

CPI inflation projection based on constant inflation rates at 0.1%

Total weekly hours worked (millions)

GDP of consumer-facing and all other services (indexed)

UK mobility averaged by month, August 2020-October 2021

Value and volume of food stores (£m)

Value and volume of automotive fuel (£m)

UK trade balances, preceding three months (£ billion)

Average weekly value of retailing by channel (£m)

Value of total retail sales (£m) with Q4 projections