We forecast the Australian video market to remain flat at about A$5.8bn through to 2023 even as the mix of revenues and consumption changes from traditional video to digital video platforms.
While we don’t expect the size of the video entertainment market to change materially, we forecast household spending on video to decline gradually driven primarily by the revenue deflation from traditional to digital platforms.
The launch of multiple new SVOD platforms in 2019 and 2020 will increase the competitive pressures on traditional platforms and accelerate the shift away from linear viewing.
Pay-TV will remain under pressure driven by the structural changes in the way video content is consumed and while Foxtel will offset some of this pressure by participating in the SVOD market, it will not be able to stem the losses in its traditional Pay-TV business.
Technology has rendered much of the physical media industry obsolete as consumers move away from renting and storing movie content on DVD and Blu-ray discs, to digital formats.
Cinema revenues are projected to decline gradually primarily due to cheaper substitutes on offer for consumers.
Average household spend on Video Entertainment to decline driven by the shift to streaming platforms
Digital continues to grow with overall market remaining flat through to 2023
Foxtel continues to face structural hurdles even as new SVOD players with deeper pockets emerge and the impact of cannibalisation grows
Premium Pay-TV – Kayo and the risks of cannibalisation
Rise of sports streaming apps and 5G could threaten the dominance of Foxtel in Live Sports
The SVOD market is set for a renewed bout of competitive intensity driven by the entry of multiple new players
Netflix to remain the largest SVOD player but will face increasing competition from new players such as Disney+
Growth to continue but mix likely to change
The ubiquity of streaming platforms will accelerate the decline of physical media
Revenues are projected to decline gradually over the next 5 years primarily due to cheaper substitutes on offer for consumers
Methodology and Definitions
List of charts/tables
Figure 1. Household spending on video entertainment
Figure 2. Video revenues by platform (A$m)
Figure 3. Video industry revenue forecasts by platform (A$m)