Vodafone: Bright spots and low lights

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Vodafone: Bright spots and low lights

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Vodafone: Bright spots and low lights

Contents

Some bright spots, some low lights

A mixed picture in Europe

When organic isn’t real

EBITDA hit hard by roaming

Vodafone expects a positive ‘organic’ EBITDA trend in H2

Mobile better but fixed a very mixed bag

Towers IPO imperative to maintain leverage

UK: revenue decline tempered, EBITDA hit

Service revenue trends paint a distorted picture
H3G stepping up pricing aggression
Bigger picture is cause for optimism

Germany: much to prove

Fixed still struggling for momentum
Germany mobile less exposed to roaming
EBITDA reasonable, synergy boost remains to be seen

Italy: the punches keep coming

Fixed remains subdued with disappointing broadband net adds
Iliad pressure on mobile ramped up again
EBITDA down by 11%, margin slips by 6ppts

Spain: an encouraging bounceback

Fixed benefits from demand for high-speed and drama-focused TV
Mobile shakes off lockdown and accelerates shift to unlimited
EBITDA—positive but more recovery to come

List of charts/tables

Figure1: Q1 to Q2 service revenue progression—Vodafone 'organic' definition

Figure 2: Service revenue growth in Europe

Figure 3: 'Organic' and Enders' preferred service revenue growth

Figure 4: 'Organic' and Enders' preferred EBITDA growth

Figure 5: RoW organic EBITDA growth and growth in Euro terms

Figure 6: Organic EBITDA growth

Figure 7: Organic service revenue growth

Figure 8: Mobile service revenue growth in Europe

Figure 9: Vodafone fixed service revenue growth in the 'top 4' markets

Figure 10: Vodafone's forecasted use of cash (€m)

Figure 11: Vodafone forecast Net Debt to EBITDA scenarios

Figure 12: UK operational and financial metrics

Figure 13: UK fixed performance

Figure 14: UK contract net additions (000)

Figure 15: UK mobile service revenue growth by operator

Figure 16: ‘Sweet spot’ bundle with iPhone 6s/7/8/XR/11/12

Figure 17: SIM-only pricing by data allowance(GB) ––July 2020 (£/month)

Figure 18: SIM-only pricing by data allowance(GB)—November 2020 (£/month)

Figure19: 12-month, SIM-only unlimited data bundle pricing (£/month)

Figure 20: 18-24-month, SIM-only unlimited data pricing (£/month)

Figure 21: Germany operational and financial metrics

Figure 22: Germany fixed performance

Figure 23: Germany contract net additions (000)

Figure 24: German operator contract ARPU growth

Figure 25: Italy operational and financial metrics

Figure 26: Italy fixed performance

Figure 27: Italy service revenue growth by operator

Figure 28: Italy total subscriber net additions (000)

Figure 29: Spain operational and financial metrics

Figure 30: Spain fixed performance

Figure 31: Spain service revenue growth by operator