Vodafone plods on

Report Overview

Vodafone plods on

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Vodafone plods on
Vodafone’s revenue performance remains decidedly lacklustre. Italy and Spain are struggling to bounce back, Germany is still languishing, and the UK’s 0.6% service revenue growth is the highlight of the quarter
Liberty Global’s assets are disappointing both in terms of opening financials (revenues and EBITDA 8% and 12% lower than expected respectively) and outlook (now growing at half the rate at the time of deal announcement and guidance for Germany as a whole to be ‘flattish’)
Vodafone’s guidance for a pickup in revenue growth to more than 1% in Q4 is encouraging but these are very tentative steps forward in challenging times

Contents

Starting to slow-pedal on convergence?

Liberty Global – lower revenues, EBITDA and outlook

Leverage driving strategy

European mobile still languishing

Fixed businesses disappoint

No European revenue improvement

Rest of World growing 4% in real terms

Churn bopping around; not correlated to convergence

UK – still gaining traction (probably)

  • Unlimited take-up continues at pace
  • Pricing remains competitive
  • Fixed business plods along
  • Guidance positive in spite of challenges

Germany – Unitymedia question marks, muted outlook

  • Mobile – converged customers slowing sharply
  • Fixed – DSL migrations going better

Italy – a bumpy road to recovery

Spain – a slow and tentative recovery emerges

List of charts/tables

Figure 1: Group organic service revenue growth

Figure 2: Unitymedia revenues (€m)

Figure 3: Unitymedia revenue growth rates

Figure 4: Vodafone mobile service revenue growth in the 'top 4' markets

Figure 5: Vodafone fixed service revenue growth in the 'top 4' markets

Figure 6: Organic service revenue growth

Figure 7: Service revenue growth and inflation

Figure 8: Vodafone 'top 4' markets contract churn

Figure 9: Convergence and churn correlation to year ending Dec 2019

Figure 10: UK operational and financial metrics

Figure 11: UK contract net additions (000)

Figure 12: UK service revenue growth by operator

Figure 13: SIM-only pricing by data allowance (GB) –direct distribution

Figure 14: SIM-only unlimited data bundle pricing

Figure 15: UK fixed performance

Figure 16: Germany operational and financial metrics

Figure 17: Germany contract net additions (000

Figure 18: Germany service revenue growth by operator

Figure 19: Germany fixed performance

Figure 20: Italy operational and financial metrics

Figure 21: Italy service revenue growth by operator

Figure 22: Italy total subscriber net additions (000)

Figure 23: Italian mobile package pricing (€/month), November 2019

Figure 24: Italian mobile package pricing (€/month), February 2020

Figure 25: Italy fixed performance

Figure 26: Spain operational and financial metrics

Figure 27: Spain service revenue growth by operator

Figure 28: Spain contract net additions (000)

Figure 29: Spain fixed performance