Enders Analysis

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  • New
    April 3, 2020

    UK mobile market in Q4 2019 – Trends steady, mixed outlook

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    The UK mobile market was steady this quarter at around -2% ahead of out-of-contract notifications hitting from February
    Sector .
  • New
    April 2, 2020

    COVID-19 telecoms impact in the UK – Resilience in the shor [...]

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    Demand for telecoms capacity is booming, and the networks can (broadly) cope, with the increase primarily in off-peak demand. However, as the crisis continues, maintaining resilience becomes more challenging
    Sector .
  • New
    March 31, 2020

    Football and COVID-19 – Avoiding meltdown

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    In a likely scenario, the suspended football season could be concluded in empty stadiums in a June and July rush, nevertheless with severe financial consequences
    Sector , .
  • New
    March 30, 2020

    Coronavirus and the UK economy – Unprecedented crisis

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    To fight against the UK’s incipient pandemic, a full lockdown is in place for all but essential workers in healthcare, telecoms, food, utilities and banks.
    Sector , .
  • March 27, 2020

    UK Radio and online audio – The resilience of broadcast

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    Broadcast radio has maintained its reach and listening time over the past decade: younger people listen less than before, but this is made up for by an ageing population
  • March 26, 2020

    Amazon’s Premier League performance – No challenge for pr [...]

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    Amazon aired its first set of Premier League matches in December, with proxy figures supporting reports that it attracted up to 2 million concurrent viewers
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  • All together now – Why aggregation is the future of TV
    All together now – Why aggregation is the future of TV
    March 23, 2020

    UK TV’s supply challenge – How COVID-19 affects programmi [...]

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    Although increases are moderate so far, it is inevitable that overall video viewing will rise given a reduction in competition for people’s time. So far, unsurprisingly, TV news consumption has ballooned while unmatched viewing—a proxy for SVOD usage—has increased
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  • March 18, 2020

    UK ITV FY 2019 results: Solid, but moving from one ubiquitous unc [...]

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    H2 revenue growth across Studios, advertising and online, saw ITV come in ahead of guidance in 2019, with external revenues up 3% YoY. Advertising revenue was down 1.5% for the year after being down 5% at H1.
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  • March 18, 2020

    Telecoms investment crucial. Help required

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    At the Enders/Deloitte Media & Telecoms 2020 and Beyond conference the economic and policy importance of telecoms infrastructure was a major theme, particularly in the current climate
    Sector .
  • March 16, 2020

    Reaching sports audiences – All platforms necessary

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    Free-to-air broadcasters, pay-TV operators and OTT services all have a role to play in serving sports audiences
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  • March 13, 2020

    UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q4 2019 – Shrinki [...]

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    Market revenue growth dipped to below zero in Q4 2019, as pricing pressures bite and smaller players gather share
    Sector .
  • March 13, 2020

    Gaming’s mainstream decade – Five defining themes for the [...]

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    2020 promises a year of transition for the games industry: eSports and games broadcasting are competing with traditional programming; game streaming services are becoming meaningful platform competition; and new consoles are on the way
    Sector , .
  • March 12, 2020

    GDPR after Brexit – UK citizens must keep protections

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    Oliver Dowden, Secretary of State (SoS) for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport addressed the Media & Telecoms 2020 & Beyond Conference on 5 March. There was much to be encouraged by in his speech—he reiterated the importance of public service broadcasting, and the positive potential of technology.
  • March 11, 2020

    Disney+: Non-exclusive deal with UK Sky Q

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    Available from launch on March 24, at this stage there will be no bundling—Sky users will pay £5.99/month, either in their bill, or log-in having signed up direct from Disney—and as such there will likely be less co-promotion and prominence on the user interface than has been seen for Netflix.
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  • March 5, 2020

    Virgin Media UK: Pain before gain

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    Virgin Media’s subscriber base fell again in Q4, although strong ARPU growth allowed a slight acceleration in cable revenue growth to 1.8%, and a deceleration in OCF decline to 1%. Liberty Global group OCF guidance of mid-single digit decline in 2020 is likely to be mirrored at Virgin Media, as regulatory pressure and market competitiveness continue to bite, and mass-market demand for ultrafast remains nascent.
    Sector , .
  • March 3, 2020

    The BBC: Benefiting the UK creative economy

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    A monolith within the broadcasting landscape and the greater UK creative economy, the BBC, instructed by its Charter, is a guaranteed leader of investment in local and quality content, tech, regionality, and diversity
    Sector , .
  • February 26, 2020

    UK Media consumption: The ‘surprising’ endurance of broadcast [...]

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    Despite two decades of online disruption, the UK remains reliant on traditional platforms and brands across the media sector—more so for older cohorts, but also for younger generations. 13% of adults still do not use the internet and, in reality, an online-only media ecosystem remains a distant prospect. Traditional providers, particularly within TV, radio and news, look set to endure for the long term, aided by the trajectory of the UK’s ageing population
  • February 20, 2020

    Consumers endorse Disney’s digital transition

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    Recruiting 29 million subscribers in twelve weeks, Disney+ has stormed the US market. Furthermore, the two million gain achieved after the holidays and the completion of The Mandalorian, relatively high ARPU, and rising Hulu and ESPN+ subscriptions bode well. Conversely, booming (but expected) losses of direct-to-consumer platforms—due to increase as Disney+ launches in Europe in March—are undermining group profitability
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  • February 17, 2020

    Vodafone plods on

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    Vodafone’s revenue performance remains decidedly lacklustre. Italy and Spain are struggling to bounce back, Germany is still languishing, and the UK’s 0.6% service revenue growth is the highlight of the quarter. Liberty Global’s assets are disappointing both in terms of opening financials (revenues and EBITDA 8% and 12% lower than expected respectively) and outlook (now growing at half the rate at the time of deal announcement and guidance for Germany as a whole to be ‘flattish’). Vodafone’s guidance for a pickup in revenue growth to more than 1% in Q4 is encouraging but these are very tentative steps forward in challenging times
    Sector .
  • February 14, 2020

    TalkTalk UK: FibreNation sorted but challenges remain

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    TalkTalk’s subscriber base and revenue fell again in Q3, and ARPU continued to decline despite good growth in its higher ARPU (but even higher wholesale cost) high speed base. The sale of FibreNation to CityFibre and the accompanying wholesale deal provides much needed cash and de-risking, although the migration to full fibre still brings challenges to TalkTalk given its low price focus. TalkTalk’s shorter term operational outlook is also still very challenging, with growing EBITDA in 2020/21 particularly difficult given stable/declining ARPU and the rising wholesale costs of migrating to high speed broadband
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  • February 12, 2020

    Sky UK FY 2019 results: a solid first full year under Comcast

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    Despite operating in a challenging market, Sky has continued to increase revenues, with the resilient performance of its direct-to-consumer and content businesses offsetting the disappointing drop in advertising income. Across FY 2019, EBITDA was up 12.2%; profit growth driven by a significant reduction in “other” costs as large one-off effects disappear and cost-cutting continues. Extended distribution deals with Netflix and WarnerMedia will protect Sky’s content proposition for the coming future, as would the mooted integration of Disney+
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  • February 12, 2020

    BT: Searching for the nadir

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    BT had a weak December quarter, with revenue falling 3% and EBITDA 4%, despite a recovery at Openreach, mainly driven by tough competition and regulatory hits, with operating metrics solid but not noticeably improving. These hits look set to continue, so the company’s hopes of a return to EBITDA growth in 2020/21 probably hinge on brand and service improvements actually becoming visible in operating performance. A successful full fibre roll-out would be a boon for BT in the longer term, and regulatory developments are headed in the right direction, if not quite there yet. However, its affordability without a dividend cut remains questionable in the current challenging environment
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  • February 11, 2020

    Subscription BBC?

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    The Government appears set on reducing the scale and scope of the BBC by dismantling the licence fee, and in its place pushing for subscription or making payment voluntary, without any evidence of the likely impact. DTT – the UK’s largest TV platform – has no conditional access capability, and so implementation would require another costly and long-term switchover. A voluntary licence fee would inevitably lead to a huge reduction in income. If just those on income-related benefits were not to pay, the shortfall would be over £500 million – in addition to the £250 million the BBC will be funding for over-75s receiving Pension Credit
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  • February 4, 2020

    Winners and losers as the UK fibres up

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    The speeds made possible by full fibre build are unnecessary for most users in the short term, giving limited commercial advantage to those that can offer them, but are likely to prove essential in the medium/long term. The economics of full-scale, independent alternative networks look very challenging in our view – especially without the support of Sky – although there are some limited arbitrage/cherry-picking opportunities. The Openreach full fibre model makes economic sense under Ofcom’s proposed regulatory framework, provided it retains the lion’s share of the market, although considerable risks remain
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