Enders Analysis

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  • New
    January 15, 2021

    Roaming charges to return for some: Free EU roaming an optional e [...]

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    • Lockdown 1.0 in March-April-May 2020 reduced mobility in London to 65% of its pre-pandemic baseline, swelling time spent at home. London’s mobility tracked a similar decline to Paris and New York City, all hugely reliant on public transport
    • Easing lockdowns and good weather slowly led to a mobility recovery through the summer and early autumn, but it sharply declined again after November’s Lockdown 2.0. The mobility decline was greatest in the City of London, which is more acutely affected by working from home
    • Each nation in the UK diverged slightly from September due to varying local policies adopted by England, Wales and Scotland to address their public health crises. Notably however, Lockdown 2.0 did not cause mobility to fall to the same degree as late March
  • New
    January 14, 2021

    (UK) COVID-19 and Mobility

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    • Lockdown 1.0 in March-April-May 2020 reduced mobility in London to 65% of its pre-pandemic baseline, swelling time spent at home. London’s mobility tracked a similar decline to Paris and New York City, all hugely reliant on public transport
    • Easing lockdowns and good weather slowly led to a mobility recovery through the summer and early autumn, but it sharply declined again after November’s Lockdown 2.0. The mobility decline was greatest in the City of London, which is more acutely affected by working from home
    • Each nation in the UK diverged slightly from September due to varying local policies adopted by England, Wales and Scotland to address their public health crises. Notably however, Lockdown 2.0 did not cause mobility to fall to the same degree as late March
  • New
    January 11, 2021

    (UK) Montgomery shakes news market again: JPI, third largest loca [...]

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    The low price paid reflects the dismal prospects for print media, especially regional and local titles relative to national titles. Over the past decade, regional publications were affected at a greater rate than national counterparts by the structural decline of print circulation and advertising, resulting in significantly more closures, as well as issue frequency reductions.
  • New
    January 11, 2021

    Serie A TV rights auction: Deflation looms

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    On Monday, Italy’s Serie A issued its call for tender for its broadcasting rights for the 2021-24 cycle, covering three seasons. Bids are due by 26 January. Currently, Sky holds exclusive coverage of seven games per week with the remaining three fixtures carried by DAZN.
  • January 8, 2021

    Future to buy GoCompare Diversification shifts further to ecommer [...]

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    • Publisher Future paid a premium to acquire listed GoCo, the financial services comparison platform, for a cash and shares deal valued at ÂŁ594 million, provided GoCo shareholders approve the deal at a vote in January
    • For Future, the purchase of GoCo gives it a platform for consumers for whom the service is free, deepens its tech stack and diversifies revenues to affiliate fees earned from ecommerce
    • Future's strategy of growth by acquisition has helped offset structural decline in the print portion of the business. The question is whether GoCo will generate sufficient returns to justify the premium paid
  • January 8, 2021

    Football rights economics: Low broadcasting competition underpins [...]

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    • Beyond the short-term impact of the COVID crisis, the value of football rights in Europe is heading down
    • Lower competitive intensity in the broadcasting market is the main reason, and looks unlikely to be reversed
    • The leagues must consider long-term initiatives to broaden demand—cash fixes risk worsening their structural problems
  • January 7, 2021

    Battery backup for telco infrastructure: options and necessity

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    The 2019-20 bushfire season has renewed the focus on battery backup for telco infrastructure. About 88% of the tower outages were caused by power failure and only 1% was were due to direct fire damage. Thus, a better power backup could have significantly improved the emergency response during the bushfires by reducing tower outages.
  • January 4, 2021

    Steady now, brighter outlook: European mobile in Q3 2020

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    • Mobile growth improved very marginally to -3.6% this quarter as roaming revenues were harder hit and competitive intensity bounced back, but usage recovered from the lockdowns in Q2 and cuts to intra-EU calls were annualised
    • Italy’s fortunes took a turn for the worse as roaming hit particularly hard and Iliad resurged. After a spate of downgrades to the outlook last quarter, there were some tentative upgrades in Q3 although the tone remains cautious
    • The diminished drag from roaming is the primary positive driver from here. Although lockdowns of some degree are in place in Q4, their impact will be less severe than those in Q2
  • December 16, 2020

    Brighter outlook: UK mobile market in Q3 2020

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    The UK mobile market outlook is better as the COVID impact eases overall thanks to reduced roaming impact, but the November lockdown (including store closures) will drag. Having become more cautious last quarter, many of the European operators, including BT and Vodafone, have edged their EBITDA outlook up very slightly.
    • Service revenue declines stabilised at -7% this quarter with a myriad of factors at play: roaming worsening, the end of lockdown taking some pressure off, B2B a mixed bag, and the annualisation of cuts to intra-EU calls
    • Ofcom’s second 5G auction will be a focus in January. We expect selective bidding, proceeds of up to ÂŁ2.7bn, and some wrangling over spectrum trading
    • The outlook is better from here as the drag from roaming eases, in contract price rises step up from the spring, Carphone Warehouse diminishes as a factor in the market, and the prospect of consolidation is still on the table
  • December 15, 2020

    Amazon Prime on Sky Q: Now almost fully aggregated

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    Sky has agreed to host Amazon Prime Video on its platform, effective today. The Amazon app appears in the App section of Sky Q set-top-boxes, which in the UK places it alongside the existing icons of BBC iPlayer, Netflix, Discovery+, Disney+, YouTube and Spotify (it is currently third in prominence).
  • December 11, 2020

    Discovery+ launch An opportunity to prove essential

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    Discovery has announced the global rollout of its direct-to-consumer (DTC) service, Discovery+. In the US, Discovery has a relatively straightforward story to tell: a stable of channels focused on "real life" content with a single business model—basic cable—pivoting towards DTC distribution
  • December 10, 2020

    2021 spectrum auction: Uncertainty prevails (UK)

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    COVID, potential consolidation, implications for ALF pricing and non-contiguous blocks have conspired to make the forthcoming second 5G spectrum auction a highly complicated affair.
  • December 2, 2020

    Recovery…of sorts: UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trend [...]

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    • Consumer broadband, telephony and pay TV market revenue growth recovered to -2% in Q3 (from -6% in Q2), with the recovery in premium sports channel revenue being partially mitigated by a worsening in backbook pricing pressure at BT
    • This is however still weaker than pre-COVID levels, with said backbooking pricing pressure affecting all operators to some extent, and intensifying as Ofcom-mandated end-of-contract notifications are rolled out, with annual best tariff notification due over the next few months
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  • December 2, 2020

    BBC licence fee settlement : Further cuts will wound the sector

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    On 10 November, Oliver Dowden, Secretary of State (SoS) for the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) wrote to the BBC to confirm the scope and the timing of the next licence fee settlement, which will cover the period from 2022 to 2027. Previous settlements, conducted without public pressure or scrutiny, have left the BBC with more obligations and less to spend on them, at a time when licence fee income is already around 30% lower than it would have been had it kept pace with inflation and not been given additional spending obligations. In response, the Corporation has undergone extensive programmes of cost-cutting and rationalisation of resources. While this has made the BBC leaner in an operational sense, there is now little fat to absorb further cuts to income. With the commitment to fixed long-term obligations such as its pension deficit, the threat remains that there will be less to spend on local and quality content, tech, regionality, and diversity, and as such, it cannot be expected that the BBC will continue to return the same kinds and volumes of value to the wider creative economy, as it is structured for.
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  • November 26, 2020

    Google search in the dock: Department of Justice targets mobile b [...]

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    The US Department of Justice (DoJ) is bringing an antitrust case against Google under Section 2 of the Sherman Act, accusing it of operating an illegal monopoly for internet search and search advertising in its home market of the US. Although a monopoly by itself is not illegal in the US, Google is accused of maintaining its search monopoly by unlawful means. The case targets Google's licensing of its Android operating system and exclusionary agreements with Apple for its devices that allow Google to be the default search provider on most mobile devices in the US.
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  • November 23, 2020

    Vodafone: Bright spots and low lights

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    There are some reasons to be cheerful about Vodafone right now—small nuggets of encouragement in its H1 results and the prospect of some market repair in the UK. Annual in-contract price rises of CPI + 3.9% across the UK mobile sector could provide very valuable support
  • November 18, 2020

    ITV Q3 2020 results: Ads recovering, production may take longer

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    Advertising demand has risen, with total ad revenue down just 7% in Q3, and Q4 expected to be slightly up—this means ITV will be down just over 10% across 2020.

  • November 17, 2020

    Sky UK brings group back on track

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    Sky appears to have weathered the COVID-19 crisis, revealing an encouraging turnaround in its Q3 operating results, with revenue growth flat overall as each stream saw significant improvement from Q2
  • November 13, 2020

    Virgin Media: Subscriber growth renaissance continues

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    Virgin Media’s lockdown subscriber surge continued into Q3, as working-from-home highlights the importance of the faster speeds its network can offer.
  • November 12, 2020

    Google News Showcase An olive branch to publishers (and regulator [...]

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    On 1 October, Google CEO Sundar Pichai announced $1 billion for worldwide news publisher partnerships for a novel News Showcase product, helping them to distribute their content to a new audience.
  • November 11, 2020

    2020 console launches Xbox looks to the future; PlayStation looks [...]

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    The launch of new games consoles this week showcases broadly divergent strategies for Sony and Microsoft, with market leader PlayStation focused solely on defending its model against the rising tide of cheaper subscription games services.

  • November 9, 2020

    BT: Glacially improving outlook

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    BT had a fairly mixed September quarter at the revenue level, with post-lockdown recovery evident in a number of areas, such as wholesale/commercial sports, Openreach installation and network build volumes, and consumer mobile net adds, but revenue weakness in mobile roaming (seasonal factors) and consumer fixed (regulator-inspired price cuts) resulted in overall group revenue growth unchanged.
  • November 4, 2020

    Channel 4 2019, 2020 and beyond

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    Channel 4’s 2019 results were solid but unsurprisingly, greater interest is in how the broadcaster has fared in 2020, and what this might mean for its future

  • November 4, 2020

    O2 Looking beyond the nadir

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    There was just a slight deterioration in trends at O2 this quarter as the COVID drag was fairly constant in total, although varied in mix. However, the iPhone launch in Q4 rather than Q3 was almost as detrimental to total revenue growth which will reverse next quarter
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