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August 12, 2019Netflix’s US subscriber loss
Flash Report, ReportsNetflix lost 126,000 US subscribers (net) in Q2, the first time this has happened since 2011 when there was a price rise and the Qwikster debacle. This time a price rise—of one or two dollars, depending on tier—was one culprit, but the soft release schedule of big, returning original series, which usually give a bump to subscriber additions, played a part. Q3 has those series returns in spades, with Stranger Things, Orange is the New Black, Money Heist and Mindhunter likely driving subscriber numbers back up, but the suggestion that there is less flexibility to raise prices than previously assumed is a worry for Netflix and incoming competitors.
August 9, 2019Optus 1QFY20 earnings update: 5G and Optus Sport will drive growt [...]
Flash Report, ReportsOn 8th August 2019 Optus announced its 1QFY20 earnings. Revenues were up driven by mobile handset sales and NBN migration payments, in spite of a drop in mobile service revenues and continued weakness in the enterprise segment. 5G and Optus Sport remain the key growth areas going forward.
August 7, 2019Do EVs change everything, and by when?
Focus Report, ReportsVenture Insights hosted a webinar with leading city planning experts Nic Frances Gilley (Councillor, Chair of the Transport Portfolio, City of Melbourne), Deb Cailes (Acting Director, City Strategy and Place, City of Melbourne) and electric vehicle expert Johan Karlsson (Head of New Technology, DC Power Co) to discuss the future of electric vehicles in Australia. The topic for discussion was “Do electric vehicles (EVs) change everything, and by when?”. Certainly, the view from the guest speakers and Venture Insights is that there will be an aggressive adoption of Electric Vehicles in Australia. In a world focusing on climate change and emission reduction, renewables will be the main source of energy in the future.
August 7, 2019Australian Advertising Market Outlook 2019
Market Outlook, ReportsVenture Insights expects total advertising spend to grow at a 3.2% CAGR to $18.7bn in 2023. Digital, while being the largest growth driver for AdEx in Australia, will see its growth moderate in the coming years. Programmatic and addressable TV solutions, along with BVOD, will help traditional broadcasters offset part of the structural decline in television advertising.
August 5, 2019Vodafone UK: some signs of life but an uncertain road to recovery
Flash Report, ReportsVodafone’s newfound focus on performance improvement is showing signs of delivering – more on the cost than revenue side. Tower sharing has the potential to ultimately enhance European cashflow by 10%. The revenue picture is more mixed with churn improving but a very varied operational picture across its major European markets. Although Vodafone highlights the potential for German cable to drive growth post Liberty Global deal completion, their current 0.4% growth in Germany does not give cause for optimism
August 2, 2019O2 UK: Lower costs mitigate the challenging environment
Flash Report, ReportsO2’s service revenue growth slipped decisively into negative territory at -1.8% this quarter as the punishing regulatory regime took its toll. Underlying EBITDA growth of 4% was particularly impressive in the circumstances; likely aided by more direct distribution as well as tight cost control. The coming week will unveil how this compares to peers; we anticipate results which reflect a tough environment with little let-up on the horizon
July 31, 2019Neobanks: rapid growth or a slow burn?
Flash Report, ReportsRevolut’s recent Australian launch marks the first neobank taking on the local market, with several others waiting in the wings. Despite a willingness to consider using neobanks, particularly among younger consumers, we expect market share growth to be relatively slow as a result of low churn, a lack of trust and strong offerings from the incumbents.
July 30, 2019ACCC Digital Platforms Inquiry Final Report – much needed digit [...]
Flash Report, ReportsThe ACCC in its final report on the Digital Platforms has come up with a range of practical measures that could potentially help curb any anti-competitive behaviours from the tech giants. While the report focuses primarily on Google and Facebook, the ACCC has aimed to ensure that the recommendations are future-proof and adaptable to other digital platforms as the market evolves.
July 25, 2019Australian MVNO market overview – no longer just about price
Flash Report, ReportsAustralian MVNOs have reached a market share of 13% nationwide, as competitive MNO offerings now appeal to value conscious customers. New network technologies and the commoditised mobile industry are increasing the competitive intensity. Differentiation and cross selling will become increasingly important for MVNOs to build and retain market share
July 24, 2019TalkTalk UK Q1 2019/20 results: Slower but steadier
Flash Report, ReportsTalkTalk suffered subscriber losses and falling consumer revenue growth in Q1, with churn still high despite the high speed base growing, countered by ARPU growing for the first time since 2017. The subscriber drop was, however, modest and looks quite deliberate, with there being evidence of price firming in both direct and indirect channels supporting both ARPU and margin. This more cautious approach, if it can be sustained, puts the company on a much more healthy footing in our view, allowing it to achieve its financial targets without increasingly unsustainable existing customer price rises
July 23, 2019How could the BBC ever fund the over-75s?
Flash Report, ReportsIn the BBC’s 2015 funding settlement commencing 2017, the Government assumed the BBC would fully fund the subsidy for over-75s to the tune of £750 million from 2020/21. Although the BBC’s settlement contained measures of “mitigation” worth c.£290 million, the BBC would still have faced a gap of c.£460 million to be funded by programme cuts and efficiencies (the BBC has pledged £250 million). Including c.£300 million from the annual adjustment of the licence fee for inflation from 2017 would help. However, this was always required to offset normal salary and cost increases to prevent a real decline in the BBC’s resources.
July 17, 2019Monthly Australian TMT Wrap: June 2019
Monthly wrap, ReportsJune was a relatively quiet month for Australian TMT space although few significant announcements.
July 16, 2019Future of UK Public Service Media: EPG prominence to the fore
Flash Report, ReportsOfcom’s recommendations to Government suggest updating EPG prominence legislation to cover connected TVs, and were warmly welcomed by the PSBs. Balancing various commercial, PSB and consumer interests will be key; determining what content qualifies for prominence will be a particularly thorny issue to resolve. Extending prominence to smart TVs and streaming sticks is critical, but implementation will be challenging
July 15, 2019Ad blocking update – Publishers and tech giants work togeth [...]
Flash Report, ReportsDigital publishers are using a variety of strategies to counter the impact of ad blockers from requesting users to turn off ad blockers or whitelisting websites to blocking access to content. Publishers have also found unlikely allies in Google and Facebook that are making it harder for third party ad blockers to block ads on their platforms.
July 11, 2019100% EVs by 2050
Flash Report, ReportsElectronic Vehicles (EVs) in Australia are forecast to reach 100% of new car sales within 15-20 years. EVs are an alternative to the internal combustion engine (or ICE) and use electric motors or traction motors for propulsion. ICE vehicles typically run on petrol or diesel and currently make up nearly 100% of the Australian private vehicle market. EVs are charged typically from the grid and as such source energy from both renewable and fossil fuel sources. Reduction in technology costs and the mass production will result in EVs having lower upfront and running costs which will lead to mass market adoption and ultimately replace the entire commercial market for private vehicles. In this report, we review the various factors driving the uptake of EVs, the way in which EVs will be charged, and the potential impact on residential homes’ production and consumption of electricity. As the market moves towards a distributed renewable market, EVs will increasingly be charged by cheaper renewable energy during off peak times when renewables are abundant in supply. We also review the cost of charging EVs (versus the equivalent cost for an ICE car) under various scenarios where a household charges its EV using grid electricity and using their own solar panels and batteries.
July 10, 2019Google’s Icarus moment
Flash Report, ReportsGoogle’s advertising business has begun losing market share in the US, with competition from Amazon, Facebook and Microsoft intensifying in search and display. In response, the company is redoubling efforts to reshape its apps, services, and the entire web for more efficient monetisation, spelling uncertainty for partners and users. The adaptability and complexity of Google’s services reduce business risk from targeted regulatory measures, but increase the pressure for a radical intervention
July 9, 2019RegTech: a new Australian export?
Market Outlook, ReportsThough starting of as an offshoot of Fintech, RegTech has applications beyond financials services in regulated industries such as education, agriculture, law and more. The Industry is being driven by increasing regulatory burden and technology innovations. Australia dominates the Asia Pacific region, and is seventh in the world in terms of RegTech deal activity.
July 8, 2019Roku: OTT pioneer under threat
Flash Report, ReportsWith c.22m accounts across 44m devices, Roku has a US footprint that exceeds the largest pay-TV platforms. Limited competitive advantages highlights the scale of this achievement, but also leave the pioneering firm vulnerable to activities from bigger, wealthier rivals Apple, Amazon, and Google as well as pay-TV providers. The odds are stacked against Roku, but continuing the innovation in production and product that built its lead may secure future success
July 5, 2019Vocus Strategy update: leverage fibre, subsea and mobile to build [...]
Flash Report, ReportsVocus held its strategy day on 3rd July 2019, detailing its efforts to turning around its business units. Its core Network Services and Retail units require substantial investment to stimulate revenue and market share growth. Vocus has identified mobile and its subsea cable assets as key drivers for growth. After two unsuccessful merger attempts in the last month, Vocus needs to ensure it can transform the company.
July 3, 2019Transforming the live sports experience – it’s game on for 5G
Flash Report, ReportsMajor sports codes in Australia are trying to figure out how to engage and attract younger fans, and they are looking to technology not only to gain and retain fans but also to get fans into the stadium. Technological development is rapidly changing almost every facet of the business of live sports and as sport changes both on and off the field, innovation has become a key priority for all industry stakeholders.
July 2, 2019A strict early privacy verdict for UK online advertising
Flash Report, ReportsThe Information Commissioner’s Office reported on the UK online advertising sector, finding common industry practices unlawful under a strict interpretation of the GDPR and UK privacy law. The ICO focused on problems around transparency, consent and data sharing in the Real-Time-Bidding ecosystem, which comprises 16% of UK online ad spend, but most of publisher online ad revenue. The ICO is giving the industry six months to shape up, with the next steps still unclear. The Competition and Markets Authority has had under consideration an investigation into the entire online advertising sector, but is hampered by Brexit-related considerations.
July 1, 2019Reader-first news media: From transition to transformation
Market Outlook, ReportsThe number of people willing to pay for online news now roughly matches print paid circulation, and will soon be substantially greater, with publishers increasingly demonstrating that their strategies are influencing industry outcomes. Our thesis is that subscriptions work in some cases, but that a more systematic reader-first approach benefits all cases, recalibrating management focus to media’s core purpose. Effectively implementing such an approach is a more radical, transformative development than is sometimes assumed. The winners will deploy sophisticated, bespoke audience acquisition and retention funnels and undergo detailed appraisals of the trade-offs necessary for optimal user experiences.June 27, 20192019 UK TV advertising backstopped by Brexit
Flash Report, ReportsWe expect total TV ad revenues to decline 3.3% in H1 2019, partly due to a return to Earth following the idyllic conditions of the World Cup in June 2018. Bad omens for advertising for H2 include the sagging economy since April and the Government’s impetus to achieve Brexit on 31 October, with or without a deal. Our forecast remains a 3% decline for total TV ad revenues for 2019 as a whole, with the risk of a more serious downturn in 2020 in the wake of Brexit.
June 26, 2019Do batteries change everything, and by when?
Flash Report, ReportsWebinar Review: Venture Insights hosted a webinar with leading solar and battery experts Nick Brass (Co-Founder, DC Power Co) and Ryan Wavish (Principal, Marchment Hill Consulting) to discuss the role of household batteries in Australia. The topic for discussion was “Do batteries change everything, and by when?”. Certainly, the view from the guest speakers and Venture Insights is that batteries are a ‘game changer’ technology on the horizon for residential electricity markets. In a world made up of cheaper renewable electricity (zero marginal cost) there are profound opportunities for all participants in the electricity supply chain, from battery manufacturers, demand side software models, fossil fuel and renewable generators, transmission and distribution network owners and the incumbent and challenger retailers.
