Reports

Filter by

Filter by

Filter by

  • May 9, 2005

    UK Broadband Market 2005

    Broadband growth has been very strong in the UK, with 7 million businesses and households connecting to the Internet via a broadband cable or DSL connection at the end of Q1 2005. Driven by rapid migration of dial-up Internet users to broadband, we expect high levels of net adds to continue in 2005 and 2006, before declining steeply as the market approaches saturation.

  • April 27, 2005

    UK Digital TV Platform Growth

    The success of Freeview has ignited demand from channel operators to jump on board. The lure of Freeview is exemplified by this week's decision of Channel 4 to broadcast E4 free-to-air. The enticement is the advertising promise of such a large potential audience. But, how big an advertising opportunity is it really?

  • April 20, 2005

    Digital Terrestrial Television in France

    Digital terrestrial TV (DTT) launched in France on 31st March. We expect significant enthusiasm for the wider channel choice available to the 15 million French homes (62%) served only by analogue terrestrial feeds and the roughly 40% of homes that cannot receive a satellite feed. 14 channels were launched on a free-to-air (FTA) basis, and low prices of entry-level STBs have led to brisk sales.

  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    March 17, 2005

    Fastweb – New Targets

    As unbundlers in France increasingly look to migrate their customers from shared to full access – principally to sever the underlying telephony customer relationship with the incumbent and reduce churn – Fastweb in Italy has decided to go in the opposite direction.

  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    March 11, 2005

    UK Mobile Spectrum Review

    In January this year, Ofcom published its eagerly-awaited consultation document, “Spectrum Framework Review: Implementation Plan”, containing its plans for the release of new mobile spectrum and the liberalisation of existing mobile spectrum. This report reviews the implications of Ofcom's hesitant moves towards spectrum liberalisation and the vast amount of new mobile spectrum that will be released onto the market. We find that the hype is overblown, with low underlying consumer interest and the potential for a mass market service still several years away due to 3G actually being an inappropriate delivery mechanism. Handset manufacturers are likely to be the only significant winners from mobile TV, able to keep top-end handset prices high with yet another seldom-used feature.

  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    February 21, 2005

    Analogue switch-off

    Analogue switch-off is of huge significance to audience share and thus advertising revenue of the existing terrestrial broadcasters (see Analogue Switch-Off [2004-26]). When switch-off occurs, ITV's audience share will fall, thus affecting revenue from advertising, but its financial impact will be balanced to some extent by an end to ITV's analogue licence fee payments (see ITV Licence Fees [2004-29]). Where do matters currently stand?

    Sector .
  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    February 16, 2005

    UK Residential Telephony Market Update

    Carrier Pre-Selection (CPS) providers such as One.Tel and Carphone Warehouse are adding thousands of customers for fixed-line voice calls every week. BT has improved its competitive positioning in the course of 2004, but many service providers are still able to provide a discount to BT. As a result, BT lost almost 7% of UK geographic call minutes in the past year.

  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    January 12, 2005

    Digital Music Downloads

    Our first report of 2005 deals with prospects for music download services to the PC and the mobile handset.

  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    December 22, 2004

    Device and Network Convergence

    Our last report of the year 2004 covers device and network convergence – a recently resurgent growth story for media, telecommunications and consumer electronics companies. But does it represent any more of a reality, threat or opportunity than before?

    Sector
  • H3G
    H3G
    December 10, 2004

    Hutchison 3G – Predicting the Fall

    H3G has made great strides this year, but these have mainly been in terms of reported subscribers and market perception rather than in fundamental terms. In this report we examine in depth both its global business model and the all-important funding available in order to assess the likely future for the business, and its subsequent impact on the GSM operators.

  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    December 8, 2004

    French Football Rights Auction

    France's Ligue de football professionnel (LFP) will reveal the outcome of its first assessment of bids for broadcast rights to 380 first division football events and highlights for the seasons 2005-2008 on this coming 10th of December. The 2004 auction picks up the thread of the 2002 auction, 'won' by Canal+ by offering an exclusivity premium, but whose outcome was annulled following a complaint by rival TPS. Broadcast rights, first split between Canal+ and TPS in 1999, have simply been carried over.

    Sector , , .
  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    December 3, 2004

    LLU in France 2004

    The experience in France of local loop unbundling (LLU) could be indicative of LLU in the UK. About 20% of France's 6 million DSL connections will be unbundled by Q4 2004 (just 4.5% of all lines), and the LLU share of DSL connections could climb to 50% by the end of 2006.

  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    November 12, 2004

    Vodafone 3G Launch

    Vodafone this week announced its formal 3G launch to great fanfare, with new handsets, services and pricing. This brief note gives our view on the launch and likely impact in Europe and Japan.

  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    November 11, 2004

    TV-over-DSL in the UK

    TV-over-DSL has been pioneered in the UK by HomeChoice and Kingston Interactive Television (KIT), but their combined customer base is only about 15,000. ISPs and telcos are considering TV as a potential extra application for the local networks they intend to build in urban areas by unbundling local loops. We define TV-over-DSL as the multicast distribution of conventional free-to-air (FTA), subscription and PPV channels over the copper wire to the TV set. Unicast on demand video (VoD) services is the subject of a forthcoming report because its characteristics and market context are entirely different.

  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    November 5, 2004

    BSkyB Targets II

    The BSkyB change of strategy announced last August by James Murdoch has claimed its first victim according to this report: the company's own original target of 30% operating margin by FY 2006/07. That leaves the company with just two of its core targets: £400 ARPU and 8 million subscribers by the end of 2005. Meanwhile, the profit target has been replaced by the long-term growth target of 10 million Sky Digital subs by 2010, over 25% with Sky+ boxes and more than 30% with multiroom subs.

    Sector .
  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    October 26, 2004

    NTL 2004

    NTL's successful reshaping of its balance sheet over the last two years since it emerged from Chapter 11 has meant that the company is now a reliable future generator of cash. Management disciplines have improved substantially. Unsurprisingly, the company would therefore also like to be considered as a growth stock.

  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    October 17, 2004

    Recorded Music 2004

    Our annual assessment of the global recorded music market highlights the key drivers of the market's development – competition for the consumer wallet from mobile telephony, video games, DVD sales and live performances, as well as piracy.

  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    September 21, 2004

    Update on 3G in Japan

    This note updates on 3G in Japan [2004-24] after visits to NTT DoCoMo, KDDI and Vodafone Japan, and recent announcements in advance of Vodafone's investor day next week. We conclude that the market's outlook remains poor and, in particular, Vodafone Japan will struggle.

  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    September 20, 2004

    UK Mobile Call Charge Trends

    The profitability of the UK 2G mobile networks depends on the continued avoidance of a price war. Are there any signs yet of retail price erosion? This report suggests that mobile prices have in fact risen in the last two years, despite the entry of ‘3', the growth of Virgin Mobile and the regulatory pressure on termination charges.

  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    September 13, 2004

    Virgin Mobile and MVNOs

    MVNOs have attracted much attention recently. Virgin Mobile's IPO revealed attractive economics and discount MVNOs in certain smaller European markets have had success. This report considers the question of whether Virgin Mobile is a one-off or the start of a trend, and whether discount MVNOs can replicate their success in larger countries.

  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    September 8, 2004

    LLU in the UK II

    Local loop unbundling (LLU) is about to become a reality in the UK. This is the main conclusion of our quantitative assessment of the cost savings to be realised from unbundling local exchanges following price declines to connection and rental charges by BT in May 2004, as well as those recommended on 26th August 2004 by Ofcom.

  • Sogecable
    Sogecable
    September 1, 2004

    Sogecable and Spanish Pay-TV

    This report examines pay-TV developments in Spain where Digital+, Sogecable's DTH pay-TV service, has just celebrated its first birthday (Sogecable [2003-23]). Sogecable financial targets for 2005 are within reach.

    Sector .
  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    August 4, 2004

    ITV audience and NAR under the CRR Remedy

    Weak Q2 commercial viewing figures fuelled stories that ITV1 NAR could be approximately £100 million lower in 2005 unless audience share rallied in H2 2004. This was due to the Contracts Rights Renewal (CRR) remedy, imposed by the Competition Commission as a condition for the merger of the Carlton and Granada sales houses to create ITV Sales, which now controls over 50% of television advertising sales.

    Sector .
  • Placeholder
    Placeholder
    July 20, 2004

    ITV Licence Fees

    Ofcom produced a tough and rigorous document on ITV licence fee renewals. Although the paper is dense and difficult to understand, we think it is bad news for ITV. The likely licence fee settlement is going to be higher than commentators might have expected six months ago. The prime reasons are Ofcom's proposed move to assessing the ‘digital dividend' on the basis of digital viewing, not households and, second, taxing the benefits of the lower costs of the merged ITV business. The first of these is the more important financially since only about 57% of ITV viewing in digital houses is of the digital ITV service. We have long been sceptical of claims that music download stores like iTunes, combined with hardball legal tactics against pirates, would rapidly turn around the fortunes of the music industry. The wildly successful iPod has driven the growth of digital music downloads, and is expanding the population of music downloaders that pay for music - but not forced a change of heart by file sharers! Music download sales are expanding but not fast enough to balance the decline in physical formats. Globally, we project sales of music downloads of $3.5 billion by 2010, about 10% of the total music market.

    Sector .