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  • September 5, 2017

    Network TEN – SOLD (probably)!

    A late twist in the Network TEN saga will see the Australian media asset most-likely owned by US media giant, CBS Corporation.
  • August 29, 2017

    Video Market Outlook – FY17: SVOD is driving growth of the mark [...]

    The Australian Video Market is plateauing, as growth continues for SVOD alongside losses for traditional media. We anticipate the market to reach A$5.3b by 2022. Streamed digital media (SVOD, TVOD and EST) are growing strongly at the expense of physical media (Blu-ray and DVDs). SVOD subscriptions are anticipated to reach over 6 million by 2020, driven predominantly by Netflix.
  • June 29, 2017

    Ten Network– going once, going twice, gone…?

    Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the biggest technological revolution since the digital age. Businesses and industries will experience a huge boost to productivity and efficiency, and save costs across their entire value chains. Economic, legal and ethical challenges need to be overcome for AI to become widespread.

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  • November 30, 2016

    The future of free-to-air television Part 2: Profiting from New F [...]

    The provision and consumption of on-demand video is exploding. FTA broadcasters must adapt to these new media and audience behaviour trends. They are well placed to exploit the significant opportunities that exists in redefined ‘TV’ and adjacent markets but the price of failure will be irrelevance and decline.
  • The Future of Free-to-air Television. Part 1: The Video Revolution
    The Future of Free-to-air Television. Part 1: The Video Revolution
    October 24, 2016

    The Future of Free-to-air Television. Part 1: The Video Revolutio [...]

    Free-to-Air TV continues to reach more audiences than any other single medium and capture the greatest share of viewing time despite the increasing number of platforms and players competing for the video time and attention of consumers. We discuss the challenges and changes for FTA TV and how their continued evolution is essential to ensure they remain a player in the market.

  • October 4, 2016

    Viceland: Is this what the kids want?

    A lacklustre UK launch of Viceland—the new, multinational linear television channel from youth-skewing, gonzo-esque Vice Media—followed six months after a similarly underwhelming entrance into the US. It is surely early days, but despite strong content, the initial results were predictable, considering the challenges. The response by Vice, that viewing figures are essentially immaterial to its plans, was expected but deviated from earlier, bullish sentiments.

  • September 16, 2016

    BT Sport: positive first year with the Champions League

    BT Sport has seen a very clear positive impact from its first year airing the Champions League, with viewing up 60% year-on-year to June. Remarkably, its reach is now not too far off Sky Sports, though it still has some way to go in terms of consistent viewership.

  • September 30, 2015

    Video Market Outlook – Physical makes way for Digital

    We don’t expect the overall size of the video entertainment market to change materially but we do expect the platform share to change dramatically over the next five years. We expect xVOD services to represent 20% of the overall market from around 5% currently (replacing Physical Media and Premium Pay-TV).

  • September 16, 2015

    FLASH – Foxtel-Ten…content is king and the #1 issue for the A [...]

    The ACCC has issued a Statement of Issues citing three principle competition issues. We believe the acquisition of content is the key issue and believe it is serious enough to alter the nature of the proposed acquisitions.

  • December 5, 2014

    UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q3 2014: Quad play and [...]

    Market revenue growth in the UK residential communications sector dipped down to 4.5% in Q3, from 5.4% in the previous quarter, but underlying revenue growth actually rose a touch by our estimates. In an intensely competitive quarter, BT lost ground relatively in broadband, with its net adds dropping compared to growth at the others, but BT still had the highest net adds in absolute terms, and continued to lead the way in revenue growth. With BT's mooted bid for a mobile operator and quad play moves being highlighted by several operators, in this report we re-examine the evidence for consumer demand for quad play and find it still wanting. In the UK since 2001 there have been eight attempts at cross-selling between fixed and mobile, with five outright failures (three of which were from BT), two attempts that lost market share after an acquisition but are now growing modestly, and one attempt which has successfully gained modest share. The UK fixed business has better growth and far better margins than the mobile business. BT alone makes more cashflow in the UK than the entire mobile industry put together – the grass may always seem greener on the other side, but in this case it definitely is greener in fixed. The fixed operators have far more to lose than to gain, and for this reason alone they should perhaps be wary in their approach to quad play.

  • October 20, 2014

    The TV/digital advertising debate

    In the last few days we have spoken to key authorities in advertising in the US, UK and Europe. We have been exploring the critical debate: the degree to which TV consumption and TV advertising are shifting and will shift to digital. Recent media coverage has argued traditional TV business models could start to unravel in the medium term. We disagree.

  • October 20, 2014

    BSkyB growing on demand – Q1 2015 results

    Q1 2015 results show steady underlying revenue growth in retail subscription and increases in other segments, along with the continuing extraction of cost efficiencies, resulting in an 11% year-on-year increase in Q1 operating profits.Quarter-on-quarter, Q1 2015 retail subscription revenues and ARPU were flat in spite of the strong uptake and growing use of connected products. Main causes appeared temporary - a mixture of seasonal factors and the launch of Sky Sports 5 with its two-year free broadband offer - while underlying growth remains firmly positive.Meanwhile, Sky's accelerated investment in connectivity during 2014 is bearing fruit. Eyes may be focused on the formation of the “new Sky” (on schedule for November) and the long awaited Premier League auction, yet other developments such as Sky Store and Sky AdSmart also deserve full attention.

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    October 14, 2014

    Retransmission fees

    ITV and Channel 4 have asked the regulatory authorities to review the case for legislation that would for the first time allow the commercial PSBs to charge carriage fees for their main free-to-air channels on the pay-TV platforms. To this end, ITV has presented a detailed analysis showing the great contribution to the US creative economy due to the introduction of Retransmission Consent Compensation for free-to-air broadcasters in the US, but without setting this against the very different market structure in the UK, where the commercial PSBs enjoy significant privileges. Any change to UK rules will require primary legislation and is not expected until after the May 2015 General Election. Should action be taken, the choice appears to lie between regulation (adding “must carry” rules) and deregulation of commercial PSB privileges, where the end result might not be what the PSBs wished.
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    October 8, 2014

    Core TV and connectivity trends

    The period between 2010 and 2013 was one of technological change in video consumption as connected devices achieved mass market adoption and online video players grew in popularity. Amongst the young, TV set viewing fell across this period, particularly in the UK, but this shift in behaviour has yet to impact older demographics in the same way. An ageing population, and associated longer viewing time among older audiences, helped maintain the total number of TV minutes viewed in the three key markets of the UK, US and Germany. Video industry revenues also look resilient; internet advertising has not impacted TV advertising to the same extent it has print, while we are yet to see any meaningful evidence of cord-cutting as a result of increased penetration of SVOD services.

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  • October 8, 2014

    EE TV: Triple play focus

    EE has launched a new TV service featuring an advanced set-top box with a snazzy interface offered for free to its broadband/mobile customers. The lack of premium content means that the service is of little threat to the established pay TV operators Sky and Virgin Media, and the lack of integration with mobile or steep quad play discount makes it non-threatening to the mobile market. It does however reposition EE Broadband as a differentiated service, making it more competitive without lowering its headline price, with triple play the focus of this move in our view

  • September 14, 2014

    Media in an independent Scotland

    Claire Enders set out the implications of a Yes vote in the Scottish independence referendum for the media available in Scotland. She critically examines the SNP's plans for a Scottish media, and argues that Scotland's small population would make an independent media hard to sustain. When the effect of a nationalist 'nation-building' project is factored in too, the overall results would be serious costs to the quality of democracy Scots enjoy.

  • September 8, 2014

    Changing TV viewing habits of older viewers

    The continuing value of linear television is underlined by the fact that television is still comfortably the biggest display advertising medium, and we expect to see strong growth in 2014 and 2015 in spite of the growing impact of online to TV viewing. Viewing among the 35+s has held up well, and the subset of 45-64s, who control most of the UK's disposable income and are heavy TV viewers while embracing new technology and modern attitudes, will become increasingly important for broadcasters as the age profile of the UK gets older. We do not see an overall dramatic shift away from television to other forms of entertainment, though this cannot be taken for granted.

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  • September 7, 2014

    UKTV on the up and up

    UKTV has posted annual figures showing record revenues of £278 million in 2013, with the promise of more to come after an H1 2014 that has seen it overtake Channel 4 main channel in adult 16+ Share of Commercial Impact (SOCI) delivery and now closing in on Sky and Channel 5. The rise in adult 16+ SOCI every year since the Freeview launch in 2002 reflects not only UKTV's preparedness to invest more in content over time, but also management focus on EPG prominence on the free-to-air and pay platforms and unceasing willingness to try new channel ideas. The challenge now facing the UKTV group is how to maintain growth in an increasingly connected TV landscape. Innovative UKTV Play notwithstanding, the big question comes down to content strategy and the scale of future investment.
  • August 21, 2014

    Online scoops TV news

    Older adults have always watched more TV than younger adults, and even more TV news. The gap has widened over the last five years following the rapid rise in online news consumption via websites or apps among the under 35s, where online is now used as widely as TV for getting news. Recently published survey data by Ofcom (UK) and Reuters (10 countries) highlight the importance of online as a tool for accessing breaking news, whether search engines, news websites or social networks, along with an expanding field of news content. Online, with its emphasis on reading rather than watching news stories is no direct substitute for TV. The BBC is by a large margin the most widely accessed online source in the UK, while the challenge for the other TV news providers is to develop commercial models that successfully integrate broadcast with online.

  • August 4, 2014

    Transformation – where next ITV? Interim 2014 results

    ITV has enjoyed another very positive start to the year, with a repeat 11% increase in adjusted EBITA, this time mainly due to strong NAR growth, further helped by a 20% increase in Online, Pay & Interactive revenues. Broadly flat ITV Studios revenues reflected timing and special factors, including negative changes in the exchange rate. Now the leading US independent producer of unscripted programmes after three further acquisitions, ITV has set its sights on growing scale in scripted content. Promising new opportunities at home and abroad look to be opening up for the ITV broadcast/online business through the expansion of ITV Studios. Nor has this gone unnoticed at a time of growing consolidation in the age of convergence, as indicated by Liberty Global's acquisition of Sky's 6.4% stake in ITV

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  • July 23, 2014

    Multichannel TV facing the squeeze: Part 1

    The commercial non-PSB sector saw strong growth in share of total TV viewing of close to 40% as the multichannel TV homes universe doubled in the 10 years between the launch of Freeview in October 2002 and completion of digital switchover in October 2012, and even higher 50% growth in SOCI (share of commercial impact) thanks to the higher commercial airtime quotas of the non-main PSB channels. Even during the growth years, non-PSB channels that were present in 2003 felt a squeeze on viewing share and suffered losses as result of numerous channel launches that added to the long tail (Squeeze 1), and strong growth in the PSB families (Squeeze 2), which saw the total PSB share among the Top 25 channels in multichannel TV homes rise from less than 80% to over 90% between January 2003 and January 2014. Today, both the PSB and non- PSB commercial channel groups face the challenge of internet connectivity and increasing population of portable screens (Squeeze 3), and they are experiencing similar rates of decline. Yet, even if overall trends look the same, non-PSB viewing trends show significant variation by channel group and genre, to be explored further in Part 2.

     

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  • June 4, 2014

    TV and video advertising boom in the UK

    Strong growth in the UK economy has created a very positive short term outlook for display advertising, with TV Net Advertising Revenues (NAR) expected to increase by 5% in 2014. That bright prospect is nonetheless overshadowed by online video advertising, where 2014 is expected to add almost £200 million to the estimated £300 million spent in 2013. YouTube is leading the way, but the TV broadcasters also stand to benefit. All the indicators point to yet more rapid growth in online video advertising over the next three to five years. So far it has had little apparent impact on TV NAR, but this should change from 2015 as TV and online video become more closely meshed.

     

  • May 1, 2014

    Channel 5 sold

    Northern & Shell has concluded the sale of the Channel 5 Group for the price of £450 million, a little over midway between the £103 million spent on acquiring Channel 5 from RTL in 2010 and the quoted target price of £700 million at the beginning of the year. Channel 5's fourth place in the strong and buoyant UK advertising market, its PSB privileges and current audience and operating performance make it a rare and attractive opportunity for US groups like Viacom seeking to expand their international footprint. Among the challenges facing Viacom are the integration of the free-to-air Channel 5 Group reaching a broad audience with its own largely pay-TV channels aimed at the younger age groups. In the process, we expect Viacom to deepen its ties with Sky, including advertising sales, where further consolidation appears likely.

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  • April 14, 2014

    ProSieben, RTL and German TV fragmentation

    The ongoing digital migration and the resulting audience fragmentation have led to rating losses at RTL and ProSieben, but with the latter retaining its younger viewers. From a low base global operators are gaining share. Leveraging their high market shares within a benign economic environment means RTL and ProSieben are in a position to withstand the increasing competition. ProSieben has been more active in developing diversification businesses – on which we have mixed feelings. The main extra growth prospects are in the distribution fees charged to TV platforms for HD channels, allowing a progressive shift to a mixed funding model.

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