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  • March 30, 2021

    (UK) Ecommerce forecasts 2021: Pandemic shifts remain for now

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    • Goods ecommerce accelerated in 2020 by four years above trend to reach 28% of retail sales (excl. fuels) from 19% in 2019. We anticipate that ecommerce in 2021 will remain in the same share range of 27-29%
    • Food and drink grew faster than any online category in 2020, doubling to over 10% of associated sales. Aside from food and drink, the agony of zero sales on the shuttered high street continued, with over half of all sales being online in 2020, likely persisting in Q1 2021
    • Offline retailing will recover due to deconfinement and the share of ecommerce will edge down in Q2 2021 and thereafter, but these new shopping habits will be sticky and anchored by persistent work-from-home, driving all retailers that are left standing to massively adopt online channels and associated advertising media
  • March 22, 2021

    UK full fibre regulation: The mist clears…somewhat

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    Ofcom’s full fibre regulation statement, released today, is largely as trailed, i.e. it allows BT’s Openreach considerable relaxation of wholesale pricing in return for building out full fibre.

    On the longer-term regulatory prospects, Ofcom continues to be fair but more obtuse than it could and should be, unnecessarily dampening investor enthusiasm. Ofcom will decide on a case-by-case basis whether to allow Openreach to offer geographic/volume discounts, using slightly contradictory principles.

    The publication and increased certainty may allow BT’s Openreach to extend its full fibre roll-out further, faster or even with external financing. The build plans of others will come under increasing question.

  • March 16, 2021

    Into the wild: Facebook prepares for a world without trackers

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    • Facebook emerged from 2020 reporting record revenue growth of 22% over the year, built on its huge volume of usage, its simple buying tools and its trove of first-party data
    • Facebook’s ability to match third-party data for targeting and attribution is also central to its success. However, Apple and Google are restricting data-matching tools like third-party cookies and mobile IDs, and Facebook is moving to minimise the damage
    • Facebook is trying to turn its sites into storefronts by launching ‘Facebook Shops’. It is also taking public stands on the use of data for advertising, and on the need for brand-building in marketing plans. These are conversations all advertisers and media owners should be engaged with
  • February 9, 2021

    Amazon beats the flu: Non-commerce drives impressive growth over [...]

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    The pandemic has pushed ecommerce to new heights around the world, as consumers substitute their offline purchases for online in the absence of being able to leave their homes. In this new paradigm for retail, Amazon stands to benefit most, providing customers with convenient one-day delivery and a range of competitively priced products.
  • January 14, 2021

    (UK) COVID-19 and Mobility

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    • Lockdown 1.0 in March-April-May 2020 reduced mobility in London to 65% of its pre-pandemic baseline, swelling time spent at home. London’s mobility tracked a similar decline to Paris and New York City, all hugely reliant on public transport
    • Easing lockdowns and good weather slowly led to a mobility recovery through the summer and early autumn, but it sharply declined again after November’s Lockdown 2.0. The mobility decline was greatest in the City of London, which is more acutely affected by working from home
    • Each nation in the UK diverged slightly from September due to varying local policies adopted by England, Wales and Scotland to address their public health crises. Notably however, Lockdown 2.0 did not cause mobility to fall to the same degree as late March
  • January 13, 2021

    Edge Computing – defining the market and business models

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    Edge computing is, fundamentally, the placement of processing and analysis capabilities near the edge of the network close to the sources of data to achieve these objectives. This deployment requires a fairly complex value chain of resources and capabilities. As a result, it is taking time for the structure of the edge computing market to emerge, and for the required partnerships and associated business models to develop. We expect this process will take years, as edge computing grows in scale and sophistication from its current rudimentary beginnings.
  • December 16, 2020

    Taking Free-to-Air TV online in Australia: opportunities and chal [...]

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    The report is designed to enumerate the key technical, commercial and equity issues that would arise in the course of such a migration, providing insights and identifying problems that would need to be addressed. Amongst other things, this requires an examination of Australia’s digital infrastructure and its capacity to support television distribution, the media and telecommunications business models that would need to be adapted, and the response of households to the changes in consumer technology that would be required. A household survey was also undertaken to inform this report, and details are included in the Appendix. The report is not a proposal that free-to-air television should entirely move to online delivery, nor is it a strategy to get there. Nor is it a cost-benefit analysis.
  • December 9, 2020

    Australian Data Centres and Submarine Cables Outlook

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    Data centres embracing a hyperscale future, driven by cloud migrations and increasing international traffic through submarine cables.
  • November 26, 2020

    Google search in the dock: Department of Justice targets mobile b [...]

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    The US Department of Justice (DoJ) is bringing an antitrust case against Google under Section 2 of the Sherman Act, accusing it of operating an illegal monopoly for internet search and search advertising in its home market of the US. Although a monopoly by itself is not illegal in the US, Google is accused of maintaining its search monopoly by unlawful means. The case targets Google's licensing of its Android operating system and exclusionary agreements with Apple for its devices that allow Google to be the default search provider on most mobile devices in the US.
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  • November 23, 2020

    Vodafone: Bright spots and low lights

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    There are some reasons to be cheerful about Vodafone right now—small nuggets of encouragement in its H1 results and the prospect of some market repair in the UK. Annual in-contract price rises of CPI + 3.9% across the UK mobile sector could provide very valuable support
  • cover 5G
    cover 5G
    October 9, 2020

    Australian Household 5G Fixed Wireless Substitution Forecast

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    The advent of 5G, combined with an increase in smart device penetration, has made 5G fixed wireless and mobile broadband more attractive to consumers, and this will lead to a significant growth in wireless broadband usage. As consumers rely more and more on wireless broadband (both mobile and fixed wireless) connectivity, customers may look to cut their fixed broadband connection and rely on wireless devices for broadband connectivity.
  • October 1, 2020

    Commentary: Webscale Capex in 2Q20

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    As WNOs have grown, they’ve developed more sophisticated offerings in the cloud, often targeting specific vertical markets with customized platforms, including telecom. This is impacting how telcos build their networks and develop services. In the last year, webscale partnerships with telcos have expanded, spanning workload shift, joint development, and service partnerships – often supporting 5G. In January, our research partner MTN Consulting flagged the need for more collaboration between telcos, WNOs, and carrier-neutral providers as essential for 5G success as telcos aim to lower their capex outlays.
  • September 17, 2020

    Australia consumer and SMB broadband pricing trends – Broadband [...]

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    Broadband services are critical enablers for access to information, employment, markets and key services. Consumer demand for broadband services has grown rapidly in the last decade with household penetration increasing to 85% in 2019 compared to 64% in 2009. This report analyses the competitive environment in the fixed broadband market, focussing on consumer price trends. In particular, we analyse the major RSPs – Telstra, Optus, TPG and Aussie Broadband to evaluate their broadband offerings in the retail market.
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  • September 2, 2020

    CNNO Playbook: Crown Castle

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    The big three U.S. telcos (AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile) have historically owned and operated their own towers. However, with rising debt and heavy costs involved in deploying the networks, the big three telcos spun off their tower assets to independent tower companies. AT&T and T-Mobile sold their tower business to Crown Castle; and Verizon disposed of its tower assets to American Tower. It was a win win situation for both the parties, as telcos could monetize their tower assets and pay off their debts. In exchange, tower companies could gain a long term customer. The exit of the big three telcos from the tower space led to the market dominance of American Tower, Crown Castle and SBA in the U.S. tower market segment.
  • August 27, 2020

    The Australian tower market 2020

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    This report assesses the Australian mobile communications tower market and the drivers for tower and small cell demand in Australia. The rollout of 5G and renewed interest in small cell technology is an opportunity to reconsider the financing and ownership of potentially shareable infrastructure.
  • August 27, 2020

    Webscale Playbook: Tencent

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    Tencent’s meteoric rise into one of the leading internet businesses coincides with China’s internet boom that started at the end of 20th century. According to the ITU estimates, just ~1.8% of China’s total population were internet users in the year 2000 – two years after Tencent was founded – that has now exploded to about 64%. Tencent’s initial journey began with the desktop-based instant messaging offering, QQ (initially QICQ), which slowly gained popularity and provided the company with a strong footprint in the domestic market. The start of the new decade saw more users going mobile with the increased cellphone penetration in the country, which led Tencent to launch its popular mobile instant messaging app, WeChat (Weixin in China) in 2011.
  • August 27, 2020

    New Zealand Telco Market Outlook

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    We anticipate a negative-growth telecommunications market over the next few years, with broadband growth offset by declines in mobile and fixed voice.
  • August 20, 2020

    Optus 1QFY21 and Vocus FY20 earnings update: revenues fall amidst [...]

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    Both Optus’ and Vocus’ revenues were impacted by COVID-19. Both operators saw mobile revenues decline in the last quarter, as consumers relied more on fixed broadband while working from home. Pre-COVID-19, we noted rising pressure on mobile ARPUs due to competition and increased consumer interest in cheaper plans. We forecast that COVID-19 would exacerbate these pressures, and this has been validated by Vocus’, Optus’ and Telstra’s results this week.
  • August 18, 2020

    BT UK – COVID-19 hit, fibre promise

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    BT’s first full quarter under the shadow of COVID-19 revealed a mix of negative impacts not entirely as predicted, by ourselves or indeed BT itself. The suspension of sport certainly had an impact on BT Sport revenue, but only about half of what we had feared (less than £50 million versus around £100 million), and Openreach was also relatively unaffected, perhaps having returned to full service levels quicker than anticipated. There was a strong negative impact on B2B revenue, but this was much more focused on SMEs than large corporates, with Global’s financials largely unaffected (so far), and mobile (which BT had not specifically warned about) was hit hard across consumer and (especially) B2B, with the results of the other mobile operators suggesting that the effect was market-wide.
  • July 30, 2020

    Australian Telecommunications Market Outlook

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    We anticipate a negative-growth telecommunications market over the next few years, with slow growth in consumer revenues being offset by declines in the enterprise market. In 2020, we expect COVID19 to have a negative effect on both consumer and enterprise revenues as economic activity declines.  
  • July 24, 2020

    Technology and connectivity critical for Australian SMBs

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    With COVID-19, the Australian economy has undergone a large demand-side shock where consumer demand for many products and services has disappeared following the introduction of social distancing rules to flatten the infection curve.  
  • Smart Home
    Smart Home
    December 17, 2019

    The rise of smart homes in Australia – we are only getting star [...]

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    In the past few years, there’s been a rapid increase in the use of home automation devices and technologies across the world. The mass adoption of connected devices and the rise of Internet of Things (IoT) has led to the rise of the Smart Home market which offers consumers interconnected and improved access to a range of services. In August 2019, Venture Insights conducted a consumer survey focussing on electricity, solar energy, batteries, smart homes, electric vehicles and climate change in the Australian market. In this report, we present the key insights drawn from the smart home section of the survey and discuss the current state of the smart home market in Australia, key drivers for future growth, the ideal ecosystem provider and the scope for bundled services.

  • December 13, 2019

    Cybercrime as a Service: Six critical questions every business mu [...]

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    The rising costs of cybercrime are driven by an increase in online devices, more cyberattacks and the growing sophistication of cybercriminals and their toolkits
  • November 25, 2019

    Cybercrime – The Upside

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    Market disruption caused by cybercrime and continued technology growth has created a range of market opportunities for cybersecurity. Cybersecurity education, managed services, insurance and innovative cyber start-ups are all strong areas of growth in the Australian market.