Telecom

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    December 2, 2020

    Recovery…of sorts: UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trend [...]

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    • Consumer broadband, telephony and pay TV market revenue growth recovered to -2% in Q3 (from -6% in Q2), with the recovery in premium sports channel revenue being partially mitigated by a worsening in backbook pricing pressure at BT
    • This is however still weaker than pre-COVID levels, with said backbooking pricing pressure affecting all operators to some extent, and intensifying as Ofcom-mandated end-of-contract notifications are rolled out, with annual best tariff notification due over the next few months
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  • November 23, 2020

    Vodafone: Bright spots and low lights

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    There are some reasons to be cheerful about Vodafone right now—small nuggets of encouragement in its H1 results and the prospect of some market repair in the UK. Annual in-contract price rises of CPI + 3.9% across the UK mobile sector could provide very valuable support
  • November 16, 2020

    FY20 Investor Day – Telstra counting on its 5G leadership to im [...]

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    Telstra held its annual Investor Day event on 12th November 2020. Telstra CEO Andy Penn and senior management addressed progress on its T22 strategy, the financial and earnings outlook, changing dynamics in the Enterprise market, progress on the 5G rollout, and changes to the company structure. In this report, we have analysed some of the key announcements from the event and provided our take on the same.
  • November 13, 2020

    Update: The Australian tower market 2020 – Telstra’s TowerCo

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    The market for traditional macro-towers in Australia is mature. All three carriers have been expanding their tower networks only incrementally in recent years, and site growth is low. 5G will not change this significantly, because 5G base stations are being mounted on existing towers, not new ones.
  • November 13, 2020

    Virgin Media: Subscriber growth renaissance continues

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    Virgin Media’s lockdown subscriber surge continued into Q3, as working-from-home highlights the importance of the faster speeds its network can offer.
  • November 9, 2020

    BT: Glacially improving outlook

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    BT had a fairly mixed September quarter at the revenue level, with post-lockdown recovery evident in a number of areas, such as wholesale/commercial sports, Openreach installation and network build volumes, and consumer mobile net adds, but revenue weakness in mobile roaming (seasonal factors) and consumer fixed (regulator-inspired price cuts) resulted in overall group revenue growth unchanged.
  • November 5, 2020

    MVNO Update: Has the Australian MVNO market peaked?

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    Australian MVNOs (not including sub-brands) have seen their market share grow from 6% in 2010 to 15% in 2020 with a majority of the growth happening between 2010-2015. However, we believe that MVNOs have reached a peak in Australia in FY20.
  • November 4, 2020

    O2 Looking beyond the nadir

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    There was just a slight deterioration in trends at O2 this quarter as the COVID drag was fairly constant in total, although varied in mix. However, the iPhone launch in Q4 rather than Q3 was almost as detrimental to total revenue growth which will reverse next quarter
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  • October 22, 2020

    nbn’s Enterprise Market Strategy: Complementary or Competitive [...]

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  • October 13, 2020

    Apple 5G iPhone: Telstra’s opportunity for Christmas consumer c [...]

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    Telstra has recently announced (12th October 2020) that it has deployed more than 2,000 5G sites covering more than 41 per cent of Australia’s population. In addition, the telco states that it is on track to reach 75% population coverage by June 2021.
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    October 9, 2020

    Australian Household 5G Fixed Wireless Substitution Forecast

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    The advent of 5G, combined with an increase in smart device penetration, has made 5G fixed wireless and mobile broadband more attractive to consumers, and this will lead to a significant growth in wireless broadband usage. As consumers rely more and more on wireless broadband (both mobile and fixed wireless) connectivity, customers may look to cut their fixed broadband connection and rely on wireless devices for broadband connectivity.
  • October 8, 2020

    Back in play: Merger prospects in UK mobile resurrected

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  • September 17, 2020

    Australia consumer and SMB broadband pricing trends – Broadband [...]

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    Broadband services are critical enablers for access to information, employment, markets and key services. Consumer demand for broadband services has grown rapidly in the last decade with household penetration increasing to 85% in 2019 compared to 64% in 2009. This report analyses the competitive environment in the fixed broadband market, focussing on consumer price trends. In particular, we analyse the major RSPs – Telstra, Optus, TPG and Aussie Broadband to evaluate their broadband offerings in the retail market.
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  • September 7, 2020

    Australian Small Business Survey: 5G broadband battleground for O [...]

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    This report presents the survey results across 602 small businesses and highlights their views on willingness to pay, churn intentions and their views on 5G mobile and fixed wireless broadband. The survey was targeted towards the IT decision makers in small businesses, which this survey defined as having an employee count of between 5 – 20 employees.
  • August 27, 2020

    The Australian tower market 2020

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    This report assesses the Australian mobile communications tower market and the drivers for tower and small cell demand in Australia. The rollout of 5G and renewed interest in small cell technology is an opportunity to reconsider the financing and ownership of potentially shareable infrastructure.
  • August 27, 2020

    New Zealand Telco Market Outlook

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    We anticipate a negative-growth telecommunications market over the next few years, with broadband growth offset by declines in mobile and fixed voice.
  • August 25, 2020

    UK mobile market in Q2 2020 – Recovery interrupted

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    The sector was hit harder than expected by COVID-19 with service revenues declining by 7% overall vs a decline of just 1.6% in the previous quarter. Many telecoms operators across Europe have become more negative on the near-term outlook than they were a couple of months ago with full year guidance now downgraded by almost all players
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  • August 24, 2020

    UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q2 2020 – Things [...]

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    Consumer broadband, telephony and pay TV market revenue growth plummeted to -6% in Q2 (from -2% in Q1), with all of the ‘big 4’ operators’ revenue growth taking a substantial hit. The reduction in premium sports channel revenue was by far the largest factor, with there being some other lockdown-related negative factors, such as the opportunity cost effect of extra services offered for free by the operators to help their customers during the crisis
  • August 20, 2020

    Optus 1QFY21 and Vocus FY20 earnings update: revenues fall amidst [...]

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    Both Optus’ and Vocus’ revenues were impacted by COVID-19. Both operators saw mobile revenues decline in the last quarter, as consumers relied more on fixed broadband while working from home. Pre-COVID-19, we noted rising pressure on mobile ARPUs due to competition and increased consumer interest in cheaper plans. We forecast that COVID-19 would exacerbate these pressures, and this has been validated by Vocus’, Optus’ and Telstra’s results this week.
  • August 17, 2020

    Telstra and nbn Co FY20 update: increasing wireless and enterpris [...]

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    Telstra’s and nbn Co’s FY20 results show the early impact of COVID-19, but also contain indications of underlying shifts in the industry. We expect rising competition for fixed broadband subscribers as the mobile network owners (MNOs) try to maximise returns from the 5G mobile investment by launching 5G fixed wireless. Telstra’s announcement it will roll out 5G fixed wireless will step up this rivalry.  
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  • August 12, 2020

    O2 UK: COVID and loss of Carphone bite

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    Along with the rest of the mobile market, O2’s results were harder-hit by COVID than expected, with service and total revenues down by 9% and 4% respectively
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  • August 11, 2020

    Sky UK Q2 2020 results – Emerging from the worst?

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    Sport is back, but its recent hiatus amid the COVID-19 crisis hit Sky hard, with Q2 revenue plunging 12.9% year-on-year. EBITDA remains flat for now, with sports rights cost absorption postponed but not cancelled
  • August 3, 2020

    Vodafone UK: Growth dips due to COVID and more

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    Vodafone’s performance this quarter was hit both by COVID and an underlying deterioration in its operational momentum—disappointing given regulatory easing and easier comparables  
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  • July 30, 2020

    Australian Telecommunications Market Outlook

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    We anticipate a negative-growth telecommunications market over the next few years, with slow growth in consumer revenues being offset by declines in the enterprise market. In 2020, we expect COVID19 to have a negative effect on both consumer and enterprise revenues as economic activity declines.