Australian Advertising Market Outlook: September 2021
- The story of the year is obviously the rebound from COVID-19 and the associated economic slowdown. Last year we thought ongoing lockdowns would suppress growth in FY21. These lockdowns eventuated but did not have dampening effect we expected.
- The strength of the advertising recovery is impressive. The -6.7% fall in total advertising market of FY20 has more than been reversed with 16.3% growth in FY21. We now expect further growth in FY22 as vaccination rates rise, the economy opens up, and strong GDP growth drives advertising expenditure. Underlying this, expansion of digital inventory is boosting the industry’s growth potential.
- Vigorous economic growth will drive even more advertising growth. The RBA forecasts growth over 4% p.a. throughout CY22. Advertising expenditure is super-sensitive to GDP growth, so we expect AdEx to continue to grow into FY22. However, total AdEx growth will stall in CY23 as GDP growth is expected to rapidly decelerate.
- Television has outperformed our expectations. Thumping 14.6% growth in FY21 has more than recovered the 9.0% decline of FY20. But the reality of ongoing SVOD competition and lower viewer attention will see revenues decline 1.3% CAGR over FY20/25.
- Traditional newspapers and magazines will remain under pressure. Print AdEx saw a 31.2% decline in FY21 as more text and display advertising shifted to digital. We now forecast a CAGR decline of negative 22.4% over FY20/25.
- Radio has not yet recovered. FY21 revenue is still 16.4% below FY19 levels, but a strong digital performance will see a return to growth. We now forecast 4.5% CAGR growth over FY20/25.
- Outdoor was hit by reduced audience movement in late FY20 and FY21. AdEx will not overtake FY19 levels until FY22, after which we forecast modest growth.
- Cinema is hit hard by venue closures. We expect lockdowns to continue to bite, and production companies to look more to unconventional movie launch strategies. AdEx will decline at negative 8.9% CAGR over FY20/25.
- Digital has recovered strongly. After a 16.3% recovery in FY21, digital will grow 9.3% CAGR overFY20/25.
Advertising market forecast (2019–2024)
Digital – by platform and format
Mobile consumption and OTT video
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Figures and Tables
Fig. 1: Advertising expenditure (historical and forecast) by segment (A$m)
Fig. 2: Advertising revenue by segment (A$m)
Fig 3: Change in Advertising Expenditure by Sub-Segment
Fig 4: Digital advertising: by sub-segment (A$m)
Fig 5: Digital advertising, split by platform (A$b)
Fig 6: Digital advertising, split by format (A$b)
Fig 7: Mobile as a % of total digital advertising
Fig 8: Video as a % of Display advertising
Fig. 9: Video advertising revenue: by media (A$m)
Fig 10: Frequency of video consumption on mobile (March 2021)
Fig 11: Top 3 mobile video streaming services by popularity (March 2021)
Fig. 12: Average viewing time for FTA, BVOD and Pay-TV (mins/day per capita)
Fig 13: TV advertising by sub-segment (A$m)
Fig 14: Print advertising by sub-segment (A$m)
Fig 15: Radio Advertising expenditure (A$m)
Fig 16: Time spent listening to audio online (minutes per week per listener)
Fig 17: Outdoor advertising (A$m)
Fig 18: DOOH as a % of OOH in Australia
Fig 19: Changing cinema distribution model
Fig 20: Cinema AdEx revenues (A$m)