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April 3, 2020UK mobile market in Q4 2019 – Trends steady, mixed outlook
Market Outlook, ReportsThe UK mobile market was steady this quarter at around -2% ahead of out-of-contract notifications hitting from FebruarySector Telecom. -
April 2, 2020COVID-19 telecoms impact in the UK – Resilience in the shor [...]
Focus Report, ReportsDemand for telecoms capacity is booming, and the networks can (broadly) cope, with the increase primarily in off-peak demand. However, as the crisis continues, maintaining resilience becomes more challengingSector Telecom. -
April 1, 2020Fixed broadband and COVID-19: Demand up, but ARPU under pressure
Focus Report, ReportsAs COVID-19 spreads its footprint in Australia, social-distancing and quarantine measures are becoming the norm. This includes a large number of organisations directing their employees to Work From Home (WFH) where possible, and educational institutes moving to online learning, increasing the load on residential broadband networks. In this report we look at how telcos are stepping up to this challenge, discuss consumers’ broadband requirements for WFH based on our Australian consumer survey and look at short- and long-term implications of COVID-19 for the fixed broadband.Sector Telecom. -
March 25, 2020Recommendations: Dealing with COVID-19 based cyberattacks and sca [...]
Focus Report, ReportsThere have been many reports of cyber criminals using the COVID-19 pandemic to trick users into installing cyber viruses, purchasing false products and/or divulging sensitive personal or business information. Whilst this trend is disturbing it is also being combined with a massive and global shift to employees working from home which in turn exposes security vulnerabilities into a wide range of home devices and networks. Although these risks are evolving, this report outlines some of the current cyber scams, the shift to working from home and immediate recommendations for businesses with staff working from home. -
March 18, 2020Telecoms investment crucial. Help required
Flash Report, ReportsAt the Enders/Deloitte Media & Telecoms 2020 and Beyond conference the economic and policy importance of telecoms infrastructure was a major theme, particularly in the current climateSector Telecom. -
March 13, 2020UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q4 2019 – Shrinki [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsMarket revenue growth dipped to below zero in Q4 2019, as pricing pressures bite and smaller players gather shareSector Telecom. -
March 5, 2020Virgin Media UK: Pain before gain
Focus Report, ReportsVirgin Media’s subscriber base fell again in Q4, although strong ARPU growth allowed a slight acceleration in cable revenue growth to 1.8%, and a deceleration in OCF decline to 1%. Liberty Global group OCF guidance of mid-single digit decline in 2020 is likely to be mirrored at Virgin Media, as regulatory pressure and market competitiveness continue to bite, and mass-market demand for ultrafast remains nascent. -
March 2, 2020New Zealand Telco Market Outlook
Market Outlook, ReportsWe expect the overall retail telco market to remain almost flat (2019-2023 CAGR 0.4%) with mobile growth driven by a move to post-paid plans and 4G/5G to offset the structural decline in fixed voice. Total retail revenues will reach NZ$5.5bn in 2023 -
February 27, 2020Vocus 1H20 update: Network Services and New Zealand perform well, [...]
Focus Report, ReportsOn 19th February 2020, Vocus announced its 1HFY20 results which were largely in line with expectations. In 2019, Vocus had initiated a 3-year transformation process and an organisational restructure was part of this process. The company was organised into three groups. -
February 26, 2020UK Media consumption: The ‘surprising’ endurance of broadcast [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsDespite two decades of online disruption, the UK remains reliant on traditional platforms and brands across the media sector—more so for older cohorts, but also for younger generations. 13% of adults still do not use the internet and, in reality, an online-only media ecosystem remains a distant prospect. Traditional providers, particularly within TV, radio and news, look set to endure for the long term, aided by the trajectory of the UK’s ageing population -
February 24, 2020Show me the money – broadcasters and sports rights on an unsust [...]
Focus Report, ReportsIt is Venture Insights’ view that traditional Australian broadcasters will be unable to fund further increases to the cost of tier one sports as they continue to suffer from declining revenues in hyper-competitive markets. As such, premium Australian sports are likely to further split their rights, selling portions to non-traditional telco or tech players. In the long-run, Australian sports may even look at selling their content direct to consumer through ‘over the top’ distribution models. -
February 19, 2020Telstra and Optus: Falling ARPUs, increase in price sensitive mar [...]
Focus Report, ReportsTelstra and Optus reported earnings on 13th February 2020. While Telstra reported its 1HFY20 earnings, Optus reported its 3QFY20 earnings. In this report, we have analysed some of the key trends observed across the two major telcos and compared these with Venture’s Australian telco market outlook and forecasts. -
February 17, 2020
Vodafone plods on
Focus Report, ReportsVodafone’s revenue performance remains decidedly lacklustre. Italy and Spain are struggling to bounce back, Germany is still languishing, and the UK’s 0.6% service revenue growth is the highlight of the quarter. Liberty Global’s assets are disappointing both in terms of opening financials (revenues and EBITDA 8% and 12% lower than expected respectively) and outlook (now growing at half the rate at the time of deal announcement and guidance for Germany as a whole to be ‘flattish’). Vodafone’s guidance for a pickup in revenue growth to more than 1% in Q4 is encouraging but these are very tentative steps forward in challenging timesSector Telecom. -
February 14, 2020TalkTalk UK: FibreNation sorted but challenges remain
Focus Report, ReportsTalkTalk’s subscriber base and revenue fell again in Q3, and ARPU continued to decline despite good growth in its higher ARPU (but even higher wholesale cost) high speed base. The sale of FibreNation to CityFibre and the accompanying wholesale deal provides much needed cash and de-risking, although the migration to full fibre still brings challenges to TalkTalk given its low price focus. TalkTalk’s shorter term operational outlook is also still very challenging, with growing EBITDA in 2020/21 particularly difficult given stable/declining ARPU and the rising wholesale costs of migrating to high speed broadband -
February 13, 2020New Zealand 5G update: Still waiting on spectrum auctions with 2d [...]
Focus Report, ReportsAs New Zealand moves towards mass-scale 5G rollout, competition among telcos is forming and the debate around the spectrum sharing is intensifying. Limited 5G services are now being offered by Spark and Vodafone to select customers and they are counting on being able to provide mobile, fixed wireless and IoT services using the same network in the near future to increase their revenues. In this report, we look at the readiness of NZ consumers to move to 5G, the current state of critical spectrum holdings and the key 5G developments in NZ in 2019.Sector Telecom. -
February 12, 2020Sky UK FY 2019 results: a solid first full year under Comcast
Focus Report, ReportsDespite operating in a challenging market, Sky has continued to increase revenues, with the resilient performance of its direct-to-consumer and content businesses offsetting the disappointing drop in advertising income. Across FY 2019, EBITDA was up 12.2%; profit growth driven by a significant reduction in “other” costs as large one-off effects disappear and cost-cutting continues. Extended distribution deals with Netflix and WarnerMedia will protect Sky’s content proposition for the coming future, as would the mooted integration of Disney+ -
February 12, 2020BT: Searching for the nadir
Focus Report, ReportsBT had a weak December quarter, with revenue falling 3% and EBITDA 4%, despite a recovery at Openreach, mainly driven by tough competition and regulatory hits, with operating metrics solid but not noticeably improving. These hits look set to continue, so the company’s hopes of a return to EBITDA growth in 2020/21 probably hinge on brand and service improvements actually becoming visible in operating performance. A successful full fibre roll-out would be a boon for BT in the longer term, and regulatory developments are headed in the right direction, if not quite there yet. However, its affordability without a dividend cut remains questionable in the current challenging environment -
February 11, 2020Subscription BBC?
Focus Report, ReportsThe Government appears set on reducing the scale and scope of the BBC by dismantling the licence fee, and in its place pushing for subscription or making payment voluntary, without any evidence of the likely impact. DTT – the UK’s largest TV platform – has no conditional access capability, and so implementation would require another costly and long-term switchover. A voluntary licence fee would inevitably lead to a huge reduction in income. If just those on income-related benefits were not to pay, the shortfall would be over £500 million – in addition to the £250 million the BBC will be funding for over-75s receiving Pension Credit -
February 5, 2020
Australian 5G update: Telstra and Optus build continues, VHA entr [...]
Focus Report, Reports2019 was the year 5G launched in Australia making it one of the first countries in the world to launch 5G services. Whilst Telstra and Optus both launched in 2019, Telstra’s focus was centered on 5G mobile services whereas Optus’ 5G launch centered on 5G fixed wireless broadband services. 2020 will see further competition from the MNOs through continued rollout, VHA entry and potential pricing changes. We expect Telstra to continue its rapid 5G footprint expansion in Australia, including to the regional areas. In this report, we look at the readiness of consumers to move to 5G and the key Australian 5G developments in 2019. -
February 4, 2020Winners and losers as the UK fibres up
Focus Report, ReportsThe speeds made possible by full fibre build are unnecessary for most users in the short term, giving limited commercial advantage to those that can offer them, but are likely to prove essential in the medium/long term. The economics of full-scale, independent alternative networks look very challenging in our view – especially without the support of Sky – although there are some limited arbitrage/cherry-picking opportunities. The Openreach full fibre model makes economic sense under Ofcom’s proposed regulatory framework, provided it retains the lion’s share of the market, although considerable risks remain -
January 22, 2020Subscription game services: moving beyond core gamers
Focus Report, ReportsSubscription game services will finally allow platform owners and developers to deliver truly accessible gaming experiences for all, across devices, at a lower entry price point, and curated to ensure consumer safety—both in terms of cost transparency and content types. Consumer comfort with subscriptions should be embraced by the games industry and has already started in mobile. Apple’s Arcade subscription is the test case, providing focused all you can eat games that minimise exposure to violent gameplay, and the ‘free to play’ wild west. Core gamers remain the most vital and profitable games customer segment, but they have been overserved and are an obstacle to broadening the reach of games. Now is the time to move beyond this group, to restructure, expand, and normalise the games market in the next decade. -
January 9, 2020Bopping along the bottom: European mobile in Q3 2019
Market Outlook, ReportsEuropean mobile revenues remain decidedly in decline this quarter at -2% – a slight worsening since Q2 as the full force of cuts to intra EU calls hits. There are signs that dual brand strategies may be reaching their useful limit as erstwhile premium customers shift to value. There is scope for some trends to slowly improve from here, although end of contract notifications will impact all markets before the end of 2020, with the UK first off the blocks in Q1. -
December 17, 2019The rise of smart homes in Australia – we are only getting star [...]
Focus Report, ReportsIn the past few years, there’s been a rapid increase in the use of home automation devices and technologies across the world. The mass adoption of connected devices and the rise of Internet of Things (IoT) has led to the rise of the Smart Home market which offers consumers interconnected and improved access to a range of services. In August 2019, Venture Insights conducted a consumer survey focussing on electricity, solar energy, batteries, smart homes, electric vehicles and climate change in the Australian market. In this report, we present the key insights drawn from the smart home section of the survey and discuss the current state of the smart home market in Australia, key drivers for future growth, the ideal ecosystem provider and the scope for bundled services.
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December 13, 2019UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q3 2019: Darkest before [...]
Market Outlook, ReportsMarket revenue growth fell in Q3 to below 1%, and may drop below zero next quarter as existing customer pricing comes under more pressure. New customer pricing is however rising, and average pricing should rise much further as ultrafast increases in availability and popularity. Political enthusiasm for full fibre should be welcomed, although some specific plans are likely to do more harm than good if implemented literallySector Telecom.
